Ireland Regional Discussion

[The watcher]

, you have to share first.

But I suppose you could blow the snow clouds this direction .

Yes, the end of the month is dragging in with all the fuss about cold possibilities and the ups and downs of the models. Been mild and dull here today with a little rain about. Looks like the next couple of days are going to be similar.

The risk is there for blocking to be in a favourable position for a cold spell, possibly very cold, but the greater risk at the minute is with Lows coming up against the block rather than underneath. Anything you hear in the MOD thread at the minute is pure speculation, nothing is set in stone for month end yet. It does feel like 2010 the way things are playing out, it'd be a rare occurrence but certainly not unachievable to have 2 century cold spells only 2 years apart.

Here is hoping.

Edited November 14, 2012 by The watcher

[stormforce 10]

another rotten day here with wet, drizzly and mild weather. no sunshine since sunday. I do pity people who suffer sad syndrome.

cold weather please hurry up.

[ronan]

The past course of months has flew in but with winter just around the corner things are just dragging in! With regards to the model thread, it's been doing my head In the past week! Peoria thinking winter is over with one run! As many have said its trends that we are looking for at the minute! Like how long has potential blocking been shown in the models for now? Feels like months! Lol!

[ronan]

Looking good for those members who have chosen a date for the first snowfall towards the end of the month!

Pomeroy(where is he)25th Nov

Sungog 28th Nov

GeoffW 1st Dec

I reckon around the 28th is looking good!

[ronan]

Come on guys a bit of discussion in here would be nice! Things looking really tasty for the end of the month! Every other forum is talking about this except us. Something just tells me that we could be in for a spell of cold weather in comparison with 2010? Anyway it won't be long until things start firming up! The building blocks have been there for weeks now and are firming up!

[The watcher]

I think we are all on knife edge at the moment, things still firming up but on the cusp of being the synoptic pattern come end of the month. GP's post earlier today about HP to the NW sounded promising as this is what I alluded to as our best chance in my percentages a few days ago. 40% it was, but I now think this is up to 60% now. Everyday is a model rollercoaster now and it is pretty much spot on how Winter always is on netweather. It has arrived early once more.

[The watcher]

Right now I would say:

60% - Some sort of Greenland/block to our Northwest bringing a North/Northeasterly.

20% - Easterly solution

10% - HP directly over UK

10% - Continuation of what we see now.

I suppose a bit of IMBY bias to that, as we would do best with a North/NEsterly at the moment rather than an Easterly/Continental feed. Not much cold to be had showing on the models when an Easterly is projected and because of the link up of HP right across Russia, it keeps the core cold further North and East and would take an age for us to get those very cold uppers to the UK.

[ronan]

I look forward the the next week or 2 when we can start to see things firm up or go pear shaped! I've been addicted to the model thread for the past while and it's become a daily thing to come on and read everyone's posts. I'm actually starting to learn a few things to! Thanks for your thoughts Watcher. I also feel that if we do see cold air flood in from the N/NE then it could be very potent and long lasting! Let's wait and see!

[stormforce 10]

another overcast wet and dank day, what an immemorial week. just mild.

[ronan]

Cold and icey start to the day. Currently 1 degree.

[gingercat]

Arghhhh! Apocalyptic hail storms! Eek!

[ronan]

It's pretty cold out tonight and the gritters are out! Where are you at Ginger? Can't see in my phone? Radar showing some beefy showers at the minute.

[gingercat]

I'm just north of Belfast. Really cold here 2c at the moment.

[sundog]

Feels fairly bitter out tonight,clear skies with a bit of a breeze,current temp 1.5c. Max temp today 7.3c

[ronan]

Very chilly this morning. Slight dusting of snow on the Donegal hills.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Alright guys wont have the chance to be on much as my marriage has hit the proverbial rocks

Did anyone win the first day of snow comp yet, I'm pretty sure some fell in Cork a couple of weeks back??

Noticable trends for me of mild week days and cold weekends!! We have had some sleet here yesterday evening and a very sharp frost over the past 2 mornings.

I see some doom and gloom over in the Model thread, personally I think we here will do well if you like cold and snow this winter and I think it will be a rapid pattern change towards so

[skywatcher]

The Model thread is like a high-intensity tuition course in meteorology at the moment as proponents of different positions and interpretations post their forecasts and the reasons for them. Some of the theories being tossed about as to why something will or will not happen are way beyond me but I note that posters whose abilities I respect the most are going for a cold spell in the not too distant future. Perhaps that's all one can realistically say at the moment. For sure, the next few days are going to be interesting.

[stormforce 10]

absolutely hammering it down here, been raining all day. weather warnings out by met eireann for damaging winds and flooding, batten down the hatches.

[ronan]

Alright guys wont have the chance to be on much as my marriage has hit the proverbial rocks

Did anyone win the first day of snow comp yet, I'm pretty sure some fell in Cork a couple of weeks back??

Noticable trends for me of mild week days and cold weekends!! We have had some sleet here yesterday evening and a very sharp frost over the past 2 mornings.

I see some doom and gloom over in the Model thread, personally I think we here will do well if you like cold and snow this winter and I think it will be a rapid pattern change towards so

Welcome back Pomeroy. I was wondering where you had dissapeared to! Hope you sort everything out with the other half!!

[Baltic Regions]

Alright guys wont have the chance to be on much as my marriage has hit the proverbial rocks

Hope things work out for you PS! Thinking about you buddy!

[The watcher]

Alright guys wont have the chance to be on much as my marriage has hit the proverbial rocks

Did anyone win the first day of snow comp yet, I'm pretty sure some fell in Cork a couple of weeks back??

Noticable trends for me of mild week days and cold weekends!! We have had some sleet here yesterday evening and a very sharp frost over the past 2 mornings.

I see some doom and gloom over in the Model thread, personally I think we here will do well if you like cold and snow this winter and I think it will be a rapid pattern change towards so

Not good mate. Hope it gets worked out alright.

Yes I also thought the comp would be over by now, but don't think anyone confirmed it on here.

Tonight is awful weather wise, heavy rain and strong winds for a few hours now.

[The watcher]

Things in the cold outlook coming closer now.

Again heights to the NW looking a favourable outcome.

Obviously too early to go into detail at the minute, especially with the uncertainty over what kind of cold pool will be available and how close to the UK HP will be. Going to be some intense model watching over the next few days.

[Rocheydub]

This is one of my favorite areas of weather. The anticipation of a cold spell... Just can't beat it.... That is until, you're lamp-post watching at 2am!!!

[stormforce 10]

tons and tons of rain here since yesterday, brightening up now but getting very windy.

some signs of colder weather coming into the models now, fingers crossed.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

Edited November 19, 2012 by stormforce 10

[stormforce 10]

some excellent charts coming out tonight especially ecmwf.

heres one for example.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

exciting times ahead.