Ireland Regional Discussion

[gingercat]

No matter how much "model watching" is done, i think it pretty impossible to accurately predict the weather more than 48 hours in advance. I think trying to do so is a futile exercise only leading to the disappointment and frustration seen in the model thread. Bitterly Cold temperatures are not the be-all and end all of winter! What about the bright winter sunshine, frosts and fogs we have had lately which have been very seasonal, not to mention the fact that is has indeed been chilly! Snow would be lovely, but it will come in its own sweet time. To be honest I was not looking forward to a period of -10s or whatever they were getting so excited about in the model thread.. The thought of my oil bill and the practicalities of everyday life make that very unappealing!

So far this bright chilly weather is a welcome and refreshing change from the dull, mild gloom that we endured all last winter and I am content to have that. A drop of snow would be an extra bonus, and I still think that is on the cards as I think this chilly spell will continue and it's only a matter of time now!

[gingercat]

Oh and our max temperature yesterday was 4c. So far 1.5c. Not classed as "mild" in my book!

[mountain shadow]

Just posted in the MOT.

Cannot see anything decent for us within the next 14 days I'm afraid.

We are in the worst position in the present synoptic situation and we will be closer to higher pressure in the Atlantic preventing decent colder upper air getting here. Maybe a chance of something on Tuesday night though.

Think my first low lever snowfall date guess of the 17th December is looking good.

[The watcher]

We are still in a relatively cool/cold spell, just not enough for widespread snowfall. I was disappointed to see the real cold spell swiftly booted away, but had a brave idea that it may have been the case. The elongated high out in the Atlantic was shown to be very fragile and collapse, as it did so in the 06z late last week and although I touted this as a possibility in the MOD thread I was swiftly pounced upon by those who believe we should bin the respective 18z and 06z runs for missing data. It was simply a case of too much energy being thumped West/SW from the trough to the East of Canada. I think it hit alot of us for six, but it is only touching on the beginning of Winter and we will have plenty of chances throughout the season. November is looking like it may well be coming in just below average, another below month to add to an already quite high tally.

I haven't been into the MOD thread in a bit, once you have seen and been here for a while, you will know once the Atlantic gets a look in it will remain in a similar vain for a week or so. Probably be a few ridges thrown up here and there and some transient back end Northerlies in passing Lows, but the pattern is a little tedious in longevity.

I haven't had the chance to do out a LRF for the winter yet, I will do just that this weekend. Preliminary thoughts are for a just below average winter as a whole, will detail in the summary. Will be an interesting forecast from me as I have delved more into teleconnections over the last year, something that I never really understood before.

The snow blower isn't bubble wrapped yet.

Edit: Just had a look at the models and I'm surprised to see quite a few low level snowfall risks over the coming 10 days. Especially the Tuesday event (as MS mentioned)

Edited November 30, 2012 by The watcher

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I have decided that winter is over and have planted my vegetable garden

Only joking, Seriously guys this happens all the time the South Easterners get all excited over a potential eastlery that never quite delivers, its coming from the north I tell ye, we are going to get our fair share of cold and snow.

Patience Grasshopper

[The watcher]

Best outcome for Ireland as a whole:

A strong Northerly flow introducing wishbone effect showers down North, West and East facing coasts, penetrating well inland on a strong breeze with a front moving down through the country as -5 and -10c uppers squeeze together against 0c's 150miles South of the South Ireland coastline.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Agreed Watcher

[gingercat]

Some quare fog out there now!!! 1.5c here

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Happy first day of winter to one and all.

A beautiful day but bloody cold even with all the digging I have been doing, looks like some snow showers over the Sperrins from my position up here.

Possible leading snow before it turns in rain in some parts as per the meto??

Sunday:

Cloudy with rain moving eastwards across all parts. Some heavy rain and preceded by snow on hills and also rather windy too. Maximum Temperature 6 °C

[gingercat]

Been a beautiful, if chilly day here today! Currently 2c and clear.

[The watcher]

I see the models are sugar coating those FI charts again....as usual though everyone seems to forget what happened last time.

Some rain coming through Ireland tonight and tomorrow and could be some Sleet/Snow attached to it, mainly for hills though. Something to keep an eye on though for the time being and then we can look on to Tuesday.

Once again, another quite chilly Winter day (the first one actually) with some good sunny spells and feeling relatively pleasant in the sun today. Has made my hangover recovery a lot swifter.

[ronan]

Have kinda stopped reading the model thread! Have I missed something? What's happening Tuesday? Lol

[The watcher]

Have kinda stopped reading the model thread! Have I missed something? What's happening Tuesday? Lol

Models indicate a plunge from the North on Tuesday eve with the possibility of a front/shower band associated with it as -3 850's suddenly get swept aside to -6/-7s from the North. Certainly cold enough for snowfall and 500hgts, etc are also conducive. It is however looking likely to be just a brief affair, 36 hours or so. A chance however for places to see first low level snowfall and a start to some lamppost watching. Whole of Ireland included as -5/6s sweep down over us all, lets hope the precipitation upgrades more.

Edited December 1, 2012 by The watcher

[ronan]

Oh happy days! Haven't seen any mention of snow for Tuesday so that's a nice surprise. Hopefully it will happen!

[Watsy]

Another beautiful crisp frosty morning. Loving the weather recently with crisp and foggy mornings, I'd be delighted if winter gave us plenty of this rather than anything damp and dreary, long may it last.

[gingercat]

-1 this morning at 8am

[The watcher]

Thickening cloud and rain/sleet moving in now from the West. Will be interesting to see if there will be any snow reports from this as it bumps into the colder air.

[Rocheydub]

Grey, cold and misty rain. Some talk of sleet this morning, but I saw nowt!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Well we had a brief period of snow which turned quickly back to rain, its bone chilling out there though!

[The watcher]

I haven't even seen a drop of rain yet. The band has pivoted and did all sorts of weird stunts lol.

[Baltic Regions]

Drizzly muck for an hour or so and then rain.

Nippy all the same!

[mountain shadow]

Cold this morning, already back in the colder uppers.

Still hoping for a little something tomorrow night with perhaps a second bite at the weekend.

We could be in the freezer after next weekend.

[Rocheydub]

50/50 now for next weekend. An annoying shortwave or an unexpected glitch that 'always' pops up to steer the deep cold away from us is what I keep expecting to see...

Of course I do expect a cold blast, but when and for how long is the big question! Fingers crossed people!

[stormforce 10]

a bright, cool, showery day, some amazing anvil clouds in the sky.

[BIG LAD]

quite a cold night out. shower of rain there at a temp of 1.6c and not a hint of sleet in it. is that to do with the uppers bein to warm?