Ireland Regional Discussion

[Rocheydub]

Indeed SF10. Today is thankfully dry on the east coast, but its looking dark overhead now... At least I was able to get out and about this morning.

[Coast]

The storms for you guys seemed to be more in the Irish Sea between our two land masses and maybe a little earlier on?

Rain now looks patchy at worst:

[gingercat]

Dry here now and even a patch of blue sky... warmer today too than of late.- 10c

[stormforce 10]

Indeed SF10. Today is thankfully dry on the east coast, but its looking dark overhead now... At least I was able to get out and about this morning.

great you could get out rochey, not so great here, just wet,wet,wet.

[The watcher]

Going to be a mild few days coming up...followed by colder weather later next week. Just how cold for our Island remains debatable. Doesn't look likely to be a widespread snow risk for Ireland, but a "wintry on hills" scenario should we see any precipitation at all. It looks to be a dry and cold synoptic with HP extending down into W/NW (or just above) Ireland.

Let us see how further runs change, a little Eastward progression has already started to come in, and may continue.

[ronan]

Have started following the model thread now that something cold is starting to show and I have to say things are starting to look really interesting! I don't understand the models as much as others but I am starting to pick up on things. Mr Murr posted a chart there showing high preasure extending from the mid Atlantic right up into the Arctic! Surely this would give us some sustained wintry weather?

[The watcher]

Have started following the model thread now that something cold is starting to show and I have to say things are starting to look really interesting! I don't understand the models as much as others but I am starting to pick up on things. Mr Murr posted a chart there showing high preasure extending from the mid Atlantic right up into the Arctic! Surely this would give us some sustained wintry weather?

Definitely, especially in mid Winter it would have been a SEVERE spell of wintry weather with us on the Western edge of a displaced vortex with purples and probably the -15c 850hpa line knocking on the doors. What we would like to see at the moment is for the HP to be slightly further West or the little ridge that seemed consistent to point its finger at NW Ireland to dissapear and straighten leaving a full flowing Northerly/NorthEasterly with a chance of some instability for shower activity.

Length wise we are looking at least a 5-7 day spell of temperatures ranging from 4-8c by day and below zero at night with first severe frosts of the season. Eyes on the models though, a few things will change, precipitation forecasts will soon be possible and how long it will last is coming into view in the next few days.

[The watcher]

Well, after a dissapointing 12z GFS for potential we see the UKMO rescue it again with a more aligned (and no finger pointing/messy High) Northerly. ECM will be an eye opener tonight for sure. It's either too far East or close enough for potential.

[stormforce 10]

a beautiful sunny mild day today. brilliant to get out and about,

some amazing colours on the trees, when walking through the park.this is what autumn is all about, enjoying the transition from summer to winter.

exciting times ahead with the expected cold spell coming.

Edited October 21, 2012 by stormforce 10

[The watcher]

Good ECM, keeping close to the UKMO output and veering away from the GFS's Eastward progression. The lack of stubby finger pointing from the HP to our West allows cold to be further West also. More runs needed though.

[The Eagle]

Looking like the first sharp frosts and icy patches of the season later next week,

Edited October 21, 2012 by The Eagle

[The watcher]

If GFS 18Z comes to fruition, looks like the first snowfall guess competition will be over and won on 29th October with Stormforce being our champion (being the closest).

But as we all know, from this timeframe, precipitation is horrific verification wise.

Edited October 21, 2012 by The watcher

[gingercat]

Looking at the bbc weather site, it has friday as 9c! Thats not really very cold in my estimation!

[stormforce 10]

goodness grief watcher, will fall of my seat if If I win this competition, it was a pure guess, and maybe a lucky guess.

all eyes down on the next model output.

cloudy and mild after a glorious start. but dry!!!

[The watcher]

Looking at the bbc weather site, it has friday as 9c! Thats not really very cold in my estimation!

It will get cooler than that over the weekend I would imagine. Heading over to the MOD thread now to see what has been happening overnight and this morning.

[Rocheydub]

06z has come back inline with UKMO from a brief look. Haven't put it up on comparison yet, but looks similar from memory!

[gingercat]

I will be very surprised if we see snow out of this cold weather event. Every single weather forecasting outlet is putting our daytime temps at no lower than 7c!

[The watcher]

I will be very surprised if we see snow out of this cold weather event. Every single weather forecasting outlet is putting our daytime temps at no lower than 7c!

It isn't looking like snow will be seen with this snap unless you manage to be on the highest peaks of the Mournes whenever precipitation is around. A few degrees too mild at surface level at least and 850's, 500dam, are on the wrong side of marginal for this time of year.

[Rocheydub]

It isn't looking like snow will be seen with this snap unless you manage to be on the highest peaks of the Mournes whenever precipitation is around. A few degrees too mild at surface level at least and 850's, 500dam, are on the wrong side of marginal for this time of year.

I agree. Sure why don't you just give me the prize now?!?!?

[The watcher]

I agree. Sure why don't you just give me the prize now?!?!?

It hasn't snowed yet, so keep your hat on, erm...probably off actually, It ain't cold enough for a hat to be on yet .

[ronan]

I would love to see snow soon but to be honest I'd rather have snow and cold towards mid Novrmber on! The way things are at the moment it seems to me that the building blocks are there and signs of a below average November is increasing. Everything seems to be pointing towards a cool/cold setup but only time will tell! I also look forward to the clocks changing! Love the short days!!

[sundog]

with this coming cold snap i would be more then happy with a few harsh frosts. Its a bit early for snow well the proper stuff yet anyway. Any snow at this time of yr is a bit of a waste of time unless you live in the mts.

The donegal postman thinks we are in for a cold winter this yr. Snow before xmas.

Edited October 23, 2012 by sundog

[stormforce 10]

dull, laden, overcast and mild. boring. thank god I have other things to get on with.

[The watcher]

dull, laden, overcast and mild. boring. thank god I have other things to get on with.

Lazy bugger ye. Nevermind hibernating.....

I wouldn't mind having a few hail showers though in this cold spell, I haven't had a decent hail shower for longer than a year now, infact I cannot remember the last time I seen a hailstone.

[ronan]

Watcher didn't you post a video 2 years ago with a hail storm or was that thunder snow? From memory it was pretty intense!!