Ireland Regional Discussion

[Rocheydub]

Anyone get to see the northern lights this week? There are some fantastic shots doing the rounds on the internet today... Some crackers from the Antrim coastline especially.

[The watcher]

That is a crazy picture you posted up. Looks like slimer has spewed ectoplasm all over the skyline. Luminous crazy. Seen something similar in Antrim last year, although I think that was a case of those luminous clouds rather, as the light was not green but blue/white and quite whispy at around 2am and lit up the sky more so than a night of clear skies and a full moon.

[The watcher]

Pulled an all nighter playing online poker and lifted £140, just popped to the shop, tis damp out and has been drizzly rain here most of the night.

[skywatcher]

Grey and drizzly here in Belfast and by the looks of it, this will be the best part of the day.

[Rocheydub]

Thick band of heavy rain moving slowly eastwards over the country, dropping large amounts of rain... Maybe localised flooding too!

[gingercat]

Ugh. The rain is torrential today! It started round here in the middle of the night, being going constantly since I got up! Such a horrible change from the beautiful weather we had earlier in the week!

[stormforce 10]

nice and sunny in roscommon now, but torrential rain overnight gave large amounts of rainfall. quite mild too.

set to turn much cooler by tomorrow.

[Baltic Regions]

Left Ballyclare at 6 this morning heading for Maynooth!

rained all the way and was bouncing when I was crossing the border. Left Maynooth about 4 this afternoon for home and i started to rain about the border and got heavier all the way north!

[stormforce 10]

quite cold tonight outside temp 2.1c.

[The watcher]

I see GFS FI has a Northerly toppler out at end of October, gonna be close to my 1st of November punt for our first snow. I quote "2nd of November, courtesy of a potent Northerly toppler". I can taste victory already.

Pity verification at that range is less than 10% though.

Edited October 12, 2012 by The watcher

[Rocheydub]

Not at all... GFS usually pick up on these things early... I reckon my estimation will be nailed on!!!

[The watcher]

UPDATED:

Stormforce10: Nov 1st

The Watcher: Nov 2nd

BIG LAD: Nov 5th

Rocheydub: Nov 7th

Gingercat: Nov 10th

BFTV: Nov 18th

Ronan: Nov 23rd

Pomeroy: Nov 25th

Sundog: Nov 28th

Baltic Regi..: Nov 29th

GeoffW: Dec 1st

Skywatcher: Dec 3rd

Snowstorm445: Dec 9th

Mountainshadow: Dec 18th

Edited October 14, 2012 by The watcher

[ronan]

You could be right Watcher! I have a feeling that we will see an early fall of snow this year! Things just feel really different this year!! The winter thread is up and down like a yoyo!! LOL! Some of the models are showing some serious eye candy in FI! I would say if things keep going the way they are and keep showing the signs of cold then we should have a fair idea of what's going to happen in around 4/5 weeks time! The signs of cold have been there from September. Surely this is a really encouraging sign that something cold is on the way, although we have been let down before. Out of curiosity Watcher, was the charts back in September 2010 showing a lot of signals towards a cold winter?

[The watcher]

You could be right Watcher! I have a feeling that we will see an early fall of snow this year! Things just feel really different this year!! The winter thread is up and down like a yoyo!! LOL! Some of the models are showing some serious eye candy in FI! I would say if things keep going the way they are and keep showing the signs of cold then we should have a fair idea of what's going to happen in around 4/5 weeks time! The signs of cold have been there from September. Surely this is a really encouraging sign that something cold is on the way, although we have been let down before. Out of curiosity Watcher, was the charts back in September 2010 showing a lot of signals towards a cold winter?

Not until start of November in FI charts, which GP and the like was first to interpret as being achievable due to teleconnection activity. It all stemmed from that. Although not sure if anyone else saw signals earlier than that. I know BFTP and Roger had a cold winter in their forecast from October/September 2010, but they do usually go for the colder options and this was based on Solar, Moon phasings, etc.

[gingercat]

Today I noted the lowest morning temperature so far- at 8.30am it was 3c here.

[ronan]

Would I be right in saying that Roger is going for a milder December or have I read this wrong somewhere! Something about the stratos cooling?

[The watcher]

Yes, Roger went for a milder December this year, but an SSW event could render that wrong, even if the stratosphere doesn't cool as he expects it to.

[ronan]

I have read it somewhere but could you briefly explain what an SSW event is and what it could mean for us. Thanks

[Rocheydub]

Sudden stratospheric warming Ronan. It's where the strat is warmed suddenly (well duh!). It cools naturally (as it does most winters) and this certainly assists the polar vortex setting up, and helps it's strengthen. If the strat warms, it can assist (along with other factors, like SST's etc) in getting High pressure set up in northern latitudes, which obviously increases our chances of northern blocking, which in turn can lead to polar flows of cold air reaching our shores...

[ronan]

Nice one. Thanks for that Rochey!

[mountain shadow]

December 18th for me Watcher.

Not buying this early snow talk.

[stormforce 10]

cold night last night with ice and grass frost this morning. not a bad day today, bright with occasional shower, and plenty of magnificent anvil heads in the sky. another cold night tonight with temp hovering at -0.3c. plenty of cold nights this october thats for sure.

Edited October 12, 2012 by stormforce 10

[The watcher]

December 18th for me Watcher.

Not buying this early snow talk.

Added to the list.

The future looks unsettled for a while, but temperatures average or below. Sunday though looks quite a nice day.

[gingercat]

There must have been a frost this morning, the cars were all covered with moisture when I got up and the temperature at 8.15 was 2c.

[sundog]

Had a touch of frost this morning,last nights low 2.4c the coldest ive recorded so far this autumn. One or two showers today but good spells of sunshine. Max temp 11.1c. clear atm current temp 4.7c.