Ireland Regional Discussion

[The watcher]

Yeah, Posted a response to them on that update asking where they got their info from and what models they are looking at as I don't see it myself. No response.

[snowmore]

Accuweather is also showing colder temps from mid month onwards :-) http://m.accuweather.com/en/ie/edgeworthstown/210249/extended-weather-forecast/210249

Edited November 6, 2012 by jamesd

[ronan]

Been very quiet in here! GP seems to be very confident that the building blocks are falling into place for some cold weather towards the end of the month! Thoughts on this Watcher?

PS. where has Pomeroy disappeared to? Lol

[Rocheydub]

Quiet, like our weather... Grey and boring!

Mind you, I was woken at 5am by rain bashing off my window, shattered now!!!zzzzzzz

[ronan]

Yeah some really heavy rain this morning! Your right about it being grey and boring at the minute!

[stormforce 10]

cold,clear night here. clear skies after a showery day.

[The watcher]

It is very hard to take a stand on any synoptic for the end of the month at the minute, quite a number of options showing in the models and it is all placement based.

The NAO looks to come down to Neutral/Negative.

Strat still average/cooler than average.

Polar Vortex not becoming too organised and a splitting possible once again as we see height rises towards the pole.

First what we must consider is that all these things are also forecasted into the future, and can change also.

What I see is chances of certain synoptic evolutions later in the month:

40% chance of HP returning to the Atlantic near Greenland, bringing in a N/NE feed and a cold spell with it.

30% chance of HP in the North Atlantic but too far West with mean winds NW/W/SW and an average spell of Autumn weather.

20% chance of HP coming close/over the UK and bringing a settled spell for a short period with the Atlantic quickly taking over again.

10% chance of The Euro high shifting West and introducing an Easterly (although not long enough to see a "beasterly").

So a few routes available come the later stages of the month.

I don't see a substantial increase in mean Westerlies bringing a very mobile Atlantic, we are going to see heights somewhere to keep control of the weather in our vicinity, but where is the question.

I do wonder what the MJO composites are saying for the later stages of the month so I will have a look at these later.

[gingercat]

This morning was quite chilly with a temp of 3.5c here at 8 am, plus some sleety type showers this morning. Definitely cooler than it has been recently.

Love the new avatar Watcher!

[snowmore]

Its currently 2°c feels more like -2°c, ice on the cars, lovely night, feels like winter! :-)

[The watcher]

Certainly been a credible amount of cold nights in the Autumn so far, probably due to the lack of Atlantic power at this stage and throughout October. The Snowfall in England/Wales last week was quite something given the state of the troposphere at the time too. 850hpa's were only at -1/2 and dewpoints would have been rising quite quickly. To me this suggested that marginal conditions this year could take a step back 1 or 2 degrees with any NW incursion maybe being a bit more wintry in nature than more recent affairs. Anyways, I look forward to releasing my longer term thoughts in a couple of weeks for the winter period.

[The watcher]

Love the new avatar Watcher!

It is a fitting one as my cat was doing this exact thing to me whilst I was sleeping at 6am yesterday morning. Patting my head with its paws and then proceeding to play with my feet.

[The watcher]

Does anyone know who runs the NIWS (Northern Ireland Weather Service) and NIWF (Northern Ireland Weather Forecast) sites?

[Baltic Regions]

No. This is the one on FB?

[stormforce 10]

a wet and rainy night after a dull overcast day.

[The watcher]

No. This is the one on FB?

Yes BR, they have a website also but it is always down or out of service.

[ronan]

It is a fitting one as my cat was doing this exact thing to me whilst I was sleeping at 6am yesterday morning. Patting my head with its paws and then proceeding to play with my feet.

Are you sure thats all it was doing Watcher? That Avatar looks very intimate!!

Edited November 12, 2012 by ronan

[The watcher]

Are you sure thats all it was doing Watcher? That Avatar looks very intimate!!

I hope that is all it was doing, hope it didn't spot any fuzzy balls.

[stormforce 10]

overcast and drizzly but mild.

[Rocheydub]

Brightening up now, damp and mild...

[gingercat]

Yucky day out there, mild enough though! I hope this doesn't continue through November and December. Winter needs to be cold!!

[The watcher]

Still some speculation around the end of month pattern GC, you may see that winter cold soon. Having said that, should the Euro/Scandi heights get West enough and be undercut, being as far West as we are, we need a very potent draw of cold pool to make sure we are guaranteed some of the white stuff. Even better would be something similar to what the GFS 18z pulled off last night, with a NE blast and HP to the North/NNE.

[Rocheydub]

It looks like there will be HL blocking by months end ok, but as watcher says, where it ends up, will have the biggest effect on our small little island!

[stormforce 10]

another disgusting day weather wise. overcast, wet and miserable. and mild.

[ronan]

A repeat of 2010 on the way for the end of the month and into December!(wishful thinking!!)

In all honesty the building blocks are still building so anything could happen or as seen many times things could go pear shaped! I am still sticking with what I said back in September and going with my gut feeling! An epic winter is on the way with loads of cold and snow and Derry will get the full force of this! All the rest of you will be covered by a snow shield!! Lol! Watcher any chance I could get a lend of your snow blower as you won't be needing it! Lol

[sundog]

A mild day with some light rain this evening,max temp today 13.8c - warm secter poxy weather.