Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[weather is fun]

Just wanted to put my 2 pennys worth out there. Joe laminate floori has been twittering some absolute rubbish a lately we were ment to be seeing snow with upto 4inch falling between now and november 5th. He has gone for a very cold november which at the moment also looking shakey. Then he reckons we could see a worse winter than 1947. Now call me sceptical but im sure he has just opened up a new website. Say no more really. But to me personally this winter could well have been blown out of all proportion again. Think november will be very autuminal dec avaerage with a few cold snaps jan stormy with our proper cold coming in feb. Which to me would mean abit of everything for everyone. But i do think people need to rain in there hopes of this winter because at the moment it could still go either way.

[Polar Maritime]

Just wanted to put my 2 pennys worth out there. Joe laminate floori has been twittering some absolute rubbish a lately we were ment to be seeing snow with upto 4inch falling between now and november 5th. He has gone for a very cold november which at the moment also looking shakey. Then he reckons we could see a worse winter than 1947. Now call me sceptical but im sure he has just opened up a new website. Say no more really. But to me personally this winter could well have been blown out of all proportion again. Think november will be very autuminal dec avaerage with a few cold snaps jan stormy with our proper cold coming in feb. Which to me would mean abit of everything for everyone. But i do think people need to rain in there hopes of this winter because at the moment it could still go either way.

As can any season this far out.. .With another "month" left until the start of winter, nothing can be taken seriously without large portions of salt.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just because we haven't got yellows over Greenland it doesn't mean it can't be classed as a Greenland high. There's high pressure centered over Greenland, I'm pretty sure it therefore can be classed as a "Greenland high" albeit, perhaps not a strong one

I'm goin to clear a few things up, that "high pressure" you see over greenlands is not what you think, it's a surface high you see because of the deep cold and what would be snow cover, don't be took in when you see "1020" for a reall high you need to see at the very least greens, but preferably yellows, on the 500hpa chart.

Just wanted to put my 2 pennys worth out there. Joe laminate floori has been twittering some absolute rubbish a lately we were ment to be seeing snow with upto 4inch falling between now and november 5th. He has gone for a very cold november which at the moment also looking shakey. Then he reckons we could see a worse winter than 1947. Now call me sceptical but im sure he has just opened up a new website. Say no more really. But to me personally this winter could well have been blown out of all proportion again. Think november will be very autuminal dec avaerage with a few cold snaps jan stormy with our proper cold coming in feb. Which to me would mean abit of everything for everyone. But i do think people need to rain in there hopes of this winter because at the moment it could still go either way.

I agree he has been posting rubbish by choosing his chart to fit his bill and posting a chart and tweeting a forecast based on one chart, however . . . Him goin for a cold November is not looking shakey as you say, the 32 dayer ECM came out yesterday and matt Hugo has confirmed it looks very blocked and potentially very cold, also chiono without Seeing the 32dayer has basically pointed to what looks like could be a very blocked November also , matt then agreed with him and there was a chart posted which showed big northern blocking and a trough over southern Britain, I suggest you go and read yesterday's posts in hear and the strat thred.

[The watcher]

I'm goin to clear a few things up, that "high pressure" you see over greenlands is not what you think, it's a surface high you see because of the deep cold and what would be snow cover, don't be took in when you see "1020" for a reall high you need to see at the very least greens, but preferably yellows, on the 500hpa chart.

I agree he has been posting rubbish by choosing his chart to fit his bill and posting a chart and tweeting a forecast based on one chart, however . . . Him goin for a cold November is not looking shakey as you say, the 32 dayer ECM came out yesterday and matt Hugo has confirmed it looks very blocked and potentially very cold, also chiono without Seeing the 32dayer has basically pointed to what looks like could be a very blocked November also , matt then agreed with him and there was a chart posted which showed big northern blocking and a trough over southern Britain, I suggest you go and read yesterday's posts in hear and the strat thred.

Shaun is right, the High you see over Greenland is a surface high and that is why it is blue rather than green/yellow. The word "Inversion" comes to mind.

On the other hand for November and start of Winter, the Polar Vortex looks to be increasing in strength over the coming days and I think what we may see is a strengthening of mean Westerlies with it. This does not rule out some cold snaps but they will be more fleeting should they occur. Maybe a possibility that blocking will be more West based for us to see the main action?

Still a lot of conflicting reports over November though and the strat is more following the average reduction for this time of year, so nothing exceptional/underlying to send any confident signals.

[UV-RAY]

Shaun is right, the High you see over Greenland is a surface high and that is why it is blue rather than green/yellow. The word "Inversion" comes to mind.

On the other hand for November and start of Winter, the Polar Vortex looks to be increasing in strength over the coming days and I think what we may see is a strengthening of mean Westerlies with it. This does not rule out some cold snaps but they will be more fleeting should they occur. Maybe a possibility that blocking will be more West based for us to see the main action?

Still a lot of conflicting reports over November though and the strat is more following the average reduction for this time of year, so nothing exceptional/underlying to send any confident signals.

So it's a case of come back in February then.

Off course it still only Autumn and lots can happen over the next 5-6 weeks, but I feel we are heading down a similar route to last winter which IMBY was one of the worst winters over the last thirty years for cold and snow.

[latitude]

Shaun is right, the High you see over Greenland is a surface high and that is why it is blue rather than green/yellow. The word "Inversion" comes to mind.

On the other hand for November and start of Winter, the Polar Vortex looks to be increasing in strength over the coming days and I think what we may see is a strengthening of mean Westerlies with it. This does not rule out some cold snaps but they will be more fleeting should they occur. Maybe a possibility that blocking will be more West based for us to see the main action?

Still a lot of conflicting reports over November though and the strat is more following the average reduction for this time of year, so nothing exceptional/underlying to send any confident signals.

What happend in 2009 when Scotland and NE was hit by continual heavy snow showers from the middle of November onwards. What state was the polar vortex in then?

[AutumnMists]

So it's a case of come back in February then.

Off course it still only Autumn and lots can happen over the next 5-6 weeks, but I feel we are heading down a similar route to last winter which IMBY was one of the worst winters over the last thirty years for cold and snow.

I think there have been winters much much milder with less snow in general than last year, such as 06/07, various winters from 1996-2000, 01/02, various winters at the end of the 80's also.

I understand that it was your opinion you were getting across though.

Of course, opinions do matter in topics like this, as mild winters do bring a massive amount of 'localized' falls and therefore, unlike winters which are pure colder and snowier than average, snow accumulation and temperatures can vary between locations as little as 5-10 miles away, if not less.

Edited October 31, 2012 by hedgehog4

[throwoff]

Off course it still only Autumn and lots can happen over the next 5-6 weeks, but I feel we are heading down a similar route to last winter which IMBY was one of the worst winters over the last thirty years for cold and snow.

Im not sure it will be like last year, I am seeing a lot of similarities especially in ice and snow cover to 2009 as opposed to 2011.

I am a snow fanatic and hope for 10 foot drifts every year if I am honest so maybe I am 'seeing what I want to see' but it seems more on par with a cold and snowy late November/early December followed by below average temperatures but a fairy dry December.

[AutumnMists]

So it's a case of come back in February then.

Off course it still only Autumn and lots can happen over the next 5-6 weeks, but I feel we are heading down a similar route to last winter which IMBY was one of the worst winters over the last thirty years for cold and snow.

Trust me though, this stage last year the outlook was looking much more grim than it is now.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Trust me though, this stage last year the outlook was looking much more grim than it is now.

it would be hard for the weather to be werse then last year:-)

[AutumnMists]

it would be hard for the weather to be werse then last year:-)

As I said though, there have been worse winters than last. Some people I think have been a bit misunderstanding as to what a mild winter can actually do ... in that last winter was one of the more snow friendly mild winters.

Regards to this winter, 2008/09 does seem to ring a bell in my head

[Methuselah]

And there's still more than four weeks until winter even starts! And, given that even the models can't predict reliably more than around 7 days' out, why should we even be concerned?

[johnholmes]

So it's a case of come back in February then.

Off course it still only Autumn and lots can happen over the next 5-6 weeks, but I feel we are heading down a similar route to last winter which IMBY was one of the worst winters over the last thirty years for cold and snow.

how about you explain to everyone what factors are making you suggest such an outcome?

[SnowObsessor90]

Chio called the idea of a flatter pattern 11 days ago so what the most recent output is showing should hardly come of much surprise, it's how things develop from that point onwards that's important and with a little bit of luck we could have the atlantic train brought to a halt a little earlier this year (and that's on the assuption it's allowed to properly get going at all which it may not do). If it isn't well lets just say I won't be overly enthused about Feburarys prospects but then maybe that could be a good thing.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Chess01]

Why are people worried about what is shown in fi . Yes the trends has being over a couple of runs but this is fi and until we get into the reilable time frame then we must not worry . Anyone remember the 09/10 winter look what happening in november when them floods game no one thought winter would be how it turned out . Things can change. Personally i think now that weve seen blocking then i think it will come back a few times this winter . There were no blocking around last winter were as already we have seem blocking

[latitude]

Why are people worried about what is shown in fi . Yes the trends has being over a couple of runs but this is fi and until we get into the reilable time frame then we must not worry . Anyone remember the 09/10 winter look what happening in november when them floods game no one thought winter would be how it turned out . Things can change. Personally i think now that weve seen blocking then i think it will come back a few times this winter . There were no blocking around last winter were as already we have seem blocking

Tell me if im wrong, but didnt November 09 record a record breaking warm temperature early on, only to record a record low temperature later in the month? (For the month of November)

Edited October 31, 2012 by latitude

[Chess01]

Tell me if im wrong, but didnt November 09 record a record breaking warm temperature early on, only to record a record low temperature later in the month? (For the month of November)

Dont know i only remember the wet weather as i went to jamaica on the 21st and it was when flooding in cumbria just before i went

[Radiating Dendrite]

Dont know i only remember the wet weather as i went to jamaica on the 21st and it was when flooding in cumbria just before i went

I think you may be thinking about November 2010.

(in reply to Latitude Post)

Edited October 31, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[Chess01]

Tell me if im wrong, but didnt November 09 record a record breaking warm temperature early on, only to record a record low temperature later in the month? (For the month of November)

from wiki The 2009 Great Britain and Ireland floods was a weather event that affected parts of Great Britain and Ireland throughout November and into December 2009 Edited October 31, 2012 by Chess01

[AutumnMists]

I think it was the back end of November (2009) where the temperatures overall where average/milder than average but the rainfall was much above average, here in the Pennines there was regular flooding from the water on the hills. I also remember there was an extremely brief and half hearted cold snap at the end of November/start of Decemeber that brought some wintry stuff to Scotland and Northern England although the accumulations where nothing to bother about.

Two weeks later though in mid-December, the cold came back with a vengeance

[Chess01]

I think it was the back end of November (2009) where the temperatures overall where average/milder than average but the rainfall was much above average, here in the Pennines there was regular flooding from the water on the hills. I also remember there was an extremely brief and half hearted cold snap at the end of November/start of Decemeber that brought some wintry stuff to Scotland and Northern England although the accumulations where nothing to bother about.

Two weeks later though in mid-December, the cold came back with a vengeance

See point proven . No one would of thought that there would be that cold december in november 09 but there was . We just need to wait it out Edited October 31, 2012 by Chess01

[AutumnMists]

See point proven . No one would of thought that there would be that cold December in November 09 but there was . We just need to wait it out

I didn't say the cold was unexpected. Forecasts in November 2009 were pretty accurate for December 2009 and therefore everything was okay in the end.

One thing I will say though is that it ISN'T November it's OCTOBER, we DON'T know what will happen in November and we certainly don't know what will happen in December, so if I was you I would stop worrying because in all seriousness no predictions can be made yet.

I can suggest taking a look at the CET thread for November though and that will give you a taste about what we could expect in November (temperature wise).

Wait a couple of weeks and the discussions will start hotting up.

Edited October 31, 2012 by hedgehog4

[johnholmes]

Dont know i only remember the wet weather as i went to jamaica on the 21st and it was when flooding in cumbria just before i went

welcome to Net Wx, to help everyone enjoy your winter would you mind putting your nearest town into your avatar please?

thanks

[Chess01]

I didn't say the cold was unexpected. Forecasts in November 2009 were pretty accurate for December 2009 and therefore everything was okay in the end.

One thing I will say though is that it ISN'T November it's OCTOBER, we DON'T know what will happen in November and we certainly don't know what will happen in December, so if I was you I would stop worrying because in all seriousness no predictions can be made yet.

I can suggest taking a look at the CET thread for November though and that will give you a taste about what we could expect in November (temperature wise).

Wait a couple of weeks and the discussions will start hotting up.

Thats what am saying , is that people shouldnt worry when winters not for another month yet so anything can happen

[UV-RAY]

how about you explain to everyone what factors are making you suggest such an outcome?

Well for starters I only recorded 7 nights of frost with temps below zero, the lowest daytime maximum was just below zero for two days which brought us freezing rain, the only snow that fell was in December prior to Xmas which brought a slushy covering before thawing overnight. There was only one winter in the thirty odd years of weather watching that was worse and that was 88/89. So I think for IMBY I can put my hand on heart and say one of the worst for thirty years. People forget that last February's cold spell didn't deliver for most in the NW/ West. Edited October 31, 2012 by Seven of Nine