Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[throwoff]

It will snow next weekend, just how much is the question.

[weather is fun]

Very true he isnt right much. But it would be just the law of sod he gets this one right. even joe b was trying to convince him last night. But if he is right then fair play to him.

[Chris D]

When is he ever right?

When the law of probability comes in his favour, lol. i.e. bit like winning the lottery for him.

Edited November 23, 2012 by Chris D

[EML Network]

I would say now that on my little richter scale of snow and cold probability we have at last jumped another hurdle.

This is where I see the current standing

1.8.1:)Within 192 other Support, Met Office output trending the same way (60 % chance)

it then comes very much down to an IMBY perspective most of the time..so the following will differ for each of you dependent upon where you are....good luck everyone in the next few weeks, I'm sure some of you will hit the magic jackpot and get to No 2 :-)

1.8.2 We are now at 140 GFS, ECM but no Met Office support (65 % chance)

1.8.3:) Within 140 full model support (70 % chance)

1.9:) +92 model agreement but the details are not agree'd upon (75 % chance)

1.9.1:) + 92 model agreement details looking similar (80 % chance)

1.9.3 ) at + 48 and it's just down to the finer details, models can't decide whoo'se going get lucky and who's gonna miss out (85 % chance)

1.9.4:) + 48 and I'm getting my winter clothes out of the wardrobe (90 % chance)

2) IT'''''SSSSSSS SNOOOOOOWWWWWIIIINNNNNGGGGGGG :-) (100 % chance....now time to check your dew points)

I was going to add a few extra's such as..

1.9.5 ; 24 hours to go, and the wait is killing me

1.9.6 : It's bloody sleeting / raining / and everywhere else in the known Universe is getting snow...I'M MOVING HOUSE

Or the ULTIMATE disaster...

1.9.7 : it's SNOWING......hold on....ohh GOD no.!!!...IT'S NOT LAYING :-(

Edited November 23, 2012 by EML Network

[Methuselah]

When is he ever right?

I'll get back to you?

[Blairo]

''1.9.6 : It's bloody sleeting / raining / and everywhere else in the known Universe is getting snow...I'M MOVING HOUSE''

LOL...Thought I was the only one that said that. Hahahahaha!!!!

[CanadaAl]

I've noticed that the GFS has been starting to place the ridge over western greenland instead of over northern scandinavia. with the ridge further away, Does this bode well for us here in the UK? plus the GFS signals a breakdown around the 7th.

[Barry12]

slightly off topic but madden has posted his winter forecast!!!!

http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html

[crimsonp]

i can't believe he was charging 6 quid for this!!! must have lost lost his sponsors after his 11/12 forecast......?

Edited November 23, 2012 by crimsonp

[Eskimo]

James Madden is a tool, he earns money off scaremongering crap.

[Methuselah]

I'll get back to you?

No. Still nothing comes to mind!

[Blairo]

Madden's forecast: LOL

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

Lets hope that we're not going to get cold rain with raw easterlies , that are just a degree or two too warm for snow . I'm sure this won't happen and we'll all get some hood laying snow !

[snowblues]

Most of the models are showing a much colder outlook now for the end of next week but have diffrent solutions to how it will pan out.

Direct easterly would be the jackpot from a imby point of view

[AWD]

Some positive news from the Meto regarding the opening of winter, despite NWP swings. This from Ian Fergusson;

UKMO go for cold & blocked into at least 10-15d based on MOGREPS-15 & EC Monthly. They say the 'wobbles' typical in this scenario

[Barry12]

Forecasted for my area, on 3rd December, if only

Edited November 24, 2012 by Barry95

[TAFKAP]

Madden's forecast: LOL

Indeed. The guy is such a chocolate fireguard it is ridiculous. I mean who even listens to the guy anymore apart from the express and the daily mail, and even though it is the more idiotic portion of their readership that would even pay attention, and thats saying something!

[fUnKy]

i hope he is right though!

[syed2878]

im mor confident now about the up an coming coldsbel now the met r on side along with gp. As james madden's forecast well i wouldnt pay for that trash. That's just my view and not of this forum.

[Dandy]

im mor confident now about the up an coming coldsbel now the met r on side along with gp. As james madden's forecast well i wouldnt pay for that trash. That's just my view and not of this forum.

And your right, the trends, and not the single runs have given a semi decent picture of the end of the month.

Still unsure as to why folks seem to get all in a tizz over one or two runs

We will have to see how the rest of the season pans out, for me I will miss it as I will be back in the desert for another session of killer heat......anyone want to swap places

[AWD]

A "waxwing winter"! Is there or isn't there a correlation between an increase in waxwings & cold weather?

http://www.bto.org/volunteer-surveys/birdtrack

http://www.rspb.org.uk/wildlife/birdguide/name/w/waxwing/index.aspx

Mmmmmmmm.....................

[Gord]

You know what, reading these forums over the last few days...it's been wonderful to see months from recent memory being used as a yardstick. A few years ago, Feb 91 or Jan 87 were mentioned all of the time as they were pretty much the last widespread very cold spells people could refer back to (save the odd northerly/easterly or localised events).

Recently, it's all been Feb 09 or Jan 10....but mainly Dec 10. I find that quite refreshing. I think if the netweather posters of 2007 could come forward in time and read today's winter discussion...they'd be very pleased!

However, those years from long ago will never be forgotten and I'm sure will always get a mention!

As for any upcoming cold spell...we've been here before haven't we? Sometimes it's come up trumps and sometimes we've been massively let down. I look forward to seeing what the models do this week and how December progresses.

As for winter as a whole? We'll see I suppose. just hope we don't get off to as late a start as last year...(and it was almost a false start too!)

Edited November 25, 2012 by Gord

[martinj2]

A "waxwing winter"! Is there or isn't there a correlation between an increase in waxwings & cold weather?

http://www.bto.org/v...rveys/birdtrack

http://www.rspb.org....wing/index.aspx

Mmmmmmmm.....................

I'm not a bird watcher (well not the feather kind ), but I wouldn't get too excited.

if you read the RSPB site, it says big winter influxes happen now and again anyway, called irruptions.

[WillinGlossop]

Latest bbc forecast has low in scandi thursday with high pressure strengthening in the atlantic bringing ever colder weather from north east and snow showrs extending down the north sea with kent included by friday! Pre-emptive for countryfile forecast.... I love it when we get our first cold weather of winter, if that includes snow then even better!

[Weather-history]

I thought I do a bit of looking through the archives on UKWeatherworld on why you should never assume the weather has fundamentally changed.

Ian Brown 9th January 2008

I think almost certainly AGW is leading to a very cold stratosphere as temperatures cool during the late Autumn and this is leading to the Polar Vortex setting up over Greenland for lengthy spells. Also, the hemsipheric pressure belts have globally shifted North and this has a major impact on a mid-latitude place like the UK.

Winter 2005/06 was the very best opportunity for a cold winter and I have no doubt that had the same general teleconnections been in place 20 or even 15 years ago, then there would have been some very wintry spells and cold temperatures.

Of course snow and ice causes problems, it's just a shame that the kids of today and their kids will never see what we saw.

------------

Ian Brown on UKWeatherworld 11th February 2008

"Warming has changed the climate, and more especially the winter in Western Europe. Of course, the default weather in the UK is Atlantic based but stable high latitide blocking has become a thing of the past in the winter period and that is a massive factor for the UK."

"I'm convinced now that the change is permanent and we could be entering a new super christmas pudding the like of which we have never seen before. Sad for cold and snow lovers, but exciting to be around in such an evolving era of change. "

From early 2008

For me, the even larger teapot period started in the late 1980s and then the late 90s also saw some exceptional winter warmth and it looks like the late 0s will be following the same pattern, it could be that with the trend for stratospheric cooling events in early winter - therefore seeing an omnipresent PV set-up, we could be entering a super christmas pudding with all sorts of records to be smashed within the next few years.

With more snow for Greece, Turkey and North Africa.

Late January 2008

It's astonishing that synoptics like this are producing temps at this time of day that are close to the average daytime maxima in the heart of winter. No such thing as the even larger teapot ? Don't make me laugh.

Ian Brown - 25/10/2008 12:45 I believe there have been significant changes in recent years which preclude stable Northern blocking in the winter months, but I will be expanding on this in my soon to be released winter forecast.

Ian Brown - 8/1/2009 19:36 I don't think that cool/cold zonality exists anymore

Ian Brown - 10/1/2009 16:29

you would not expect the jet to go there in the christmas pudding.

We will have to see how things pan out guys, but you haven't broken the mould until you have broken the mould and I see no signs that we are about to break the mould.