Heavy Rain, Flooding, High Winds - 21st November onward

[Lynxus]

Yes indeed and also in the 1987 storm the depression suddenly deepened as it crossed the channel, so if the back edge of this low pressure tightens up before it hits land then we could all be in for an onslaught!

Looks like it may reach ~ 980mb in the north sea... could be pretty damn windy on the east coast & over on the other side of the sea. Id say, pretty much hurricane force winds out in the sea!!!

Based on this, It would be very close to a Cat1 Hurricane if it were on the USA side of the ocean..

Category Wind Speed Barometric

Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential 1

(weak) 75–95 mph

65–82 kts

33–42 m/s > 28.94 in. Hg

> 980.0 mb

> 97.7 kPa 4.0–5.0 ft.

1.2–1.5 m minimal damage to vegetation

[Sainsbo]

Based on this, It would be very close to a Cat1 Hurricane if it were on the USA side of the ocean..

Category Wind Speed Barometric

Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential 1

(weak) 75–95 mph

Not far off huricane force? Doesn't it have to be sustained at 75mph to be that strong? I can't see that happening..

[johnholmes]

Looking at the outputs from the two main models and rainfall totals are predicted, fairly consistently, out to Tuesday to be sufficient to cause some serious flooding issues. Not only again for those already affected but possibly further north into the Midlands and southern parts of northern England.

Watching the infra red movie images and I cannot see anything currently that would suggest a very rapid deepening to be occurring.

Equally going back to basics and the isollobars (how much the surface pressure is falling) ahead of the low are in the order of 3-4mb per 3 hours which again suggests no marked deepening.

Edited November 24, 2012 by johnholmes

[Lynxus]

Not far off huricane force? Doesn't it have to be sustained at 75mph to be that strong? I can't see that happening..

Yeah, I Guess your right.

Still pretty damn close. Certainly gonna be some damage about!

[matty40s]

Day 3 of being stranded in a River Lock, I could be here for another week at this rate.

Yeserday afternoon, now it's grey and waiting for the next onslaught.

I also note that whilst we are watching this coming in, every riverCam north of, and including York, is showing snow on the ground, could there be wintry comditions on the front to add to the problems??

Edited November 24, 2012 by matty40s

[Liam J]

Very different characteristics to a hurricane guys! Predicted mean wind speeds are no where near hurricane strength. Mean speeds forecast around 40mph to 50mph for the very exposed locations, so force 8 to force 9 with gusts potentially hitting 70mph at the strongest near the coast. Certainly strong enough to casue some disruption.

[knightrider]

I love how the American hurricane scale suggests that a Cat 1 hurricane will do minimal damage to vegetation, correct me if I'm wrong but based on sustained winds the 1987 struggled to reach 75mph it was more typically 50-60mph with 100mph gusts and look at how severe the damage to our vegetation was in the aftermath of that!

1987 *Storm ..> is what I meant lol

[johnholmes]

Day 3 of being stranded in a River Lock, I could be here for another week at this rate.

Yeserday afternoon, now it's grey and waiting for the next onslaught.

I also note that whilst we are watching this coming in, every riverCam north of, and including York, is showing snow on the ground, could there be wintry comditions on the front to add to the problems??

lovely photo but how far is the nearest pub? Always the most important part of canal cruising to me when I used to o it and really loved it although only hiring, usually 2x yearly for 15 years or so.

[Liam J]

Some of the hourly mean speeds in 1987 were between 60 and 70kts (70-80mph) with gusts up to and over 100mph. So the winds in some places did reach hurricane strength.

Getting a bit of topic here talking about hurricanes and 1987 etc, as interesting as that topic is lets stick with the current time and events as they unfold.

It's clouding over here slowly but it's blooming chilly with the current temp only 4c.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Liam J

[Bobby]

I love how the American hurricane scale suggests that a Cat 1 hurricane will do minimal damage to vegetation, correct me if I'm wrong but based on sustained winds the 1987 struggled to reach 75mph it was more typically 50-60mph with 100mph gusts and look at how severe the damage to our vegetation was in the aftermath of that!

1987 *Storm ..> is what I meant lol

I suppose the main trees at risk from hurricanes are Palm trees and they're well designed to bend and flex with a hurricane. You often see in the aftermath of a big hurricane some of the few things still left standing are Palm trees. I imagine other trees in Hurricane prone areas are well designed to cope with them too.

Rain turned heavy and persistent here now, lashing against the window in a gusty SE wind. 7.5mm already.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Barb-

[matty40s]

lovely photo but how far is the nearest pub? Always the most important part of canal cruising to me when I used to o it and really loved it although only hiring, usually 2x yearly for 15 years or so.

Ah, 3 pubs and shops 1/2 a mile up a flooded lane, bought myself new wellies the other day!!

There is a big HooHaa round here with the EA alerts and warnings, the Lower Soar was in flood hours before even an alert was put on. The roads were also not closed anywhere near soon enough, and then the signs were blown down by thursday nights winds resulting in many vehicles being trapped.

[knightrider]

I suppose the main trees at risk from hurricanes are Palm trees and they're well designed to bend and flex with a hurricane. You often see in the aftermath of a big hurricane some of the few things still left standing are Palm trees. I imagine other trees in Hurricane prone areas are well designed to cope with them too.

Rain turned heavy and persistent here now, lashing against the window in a gusty SE wind. 7.5mm already.

True you don't often see connifers uprooted in big storms!

[pyrotech]

I suppose the main trees at risk from hurricanes are Palm trees and they're well designed to bend and flex with a hurricane. You often see in the aftermath of a big hurricane some of the few things still left standing are Palm trees. I imagine other trees in Hurricane prone areas are well designed to cope with them too.

Rain turned heavy and persistent here now, lashing against the window in a gusty SE wind. 7.5mm already.

Where in Valleys are you and is it still heavy now?

[itsnowjoke]

Hi can anybody tell me if the winds are going ti hit Lancashire as the Mt Office only had yellow warnings out for us for rain not windd

[Bobby]

Where in Valleys are you and is it still heavy now?

Heads of the Valleys way, yes it's getting heavier now. Wind seems to have eased though.

Quite calm actually.

[jamesbhx]

This guy on youtube gives a clear and balanced view of what may happen over the next 24hrs.

[itsnowjoke]

Dont fancy anymore wind fence wont hold this time.

[Zenarcher]

Here's my analysis on the low that will pass over tonight,

Around midnight the center of the low will be placed over the Midlands giving the English channel and Southern coasts gusts around 50mph,

By 6am to 9am on Sunday gusts inland could reach over 60mph meanwhile on the coasts 70mph is likely,

On 12pm Sunday the low will have moved on and the wind speeds drop quickly.

Very high rain totals over the next 48 hours as well,

[Summer Sun]

The Environment Agency is putting up the flood barriers along side the river in bewdley

The barrier comes in thin strips which are dropped into slots in the posts

http://news.sky.com/story/1015911/live-updates-heavy-rains-threaten-more-floods

[johnholmes]

very sensible, I was there just after the first floods in 2007

[Rob Harbord]

Was bloody awful in 2007, never again, we were stuck upstairs for 3 days!

Infact this was the view from my bedroom window http://ukflood.co.uk/gallery/displayimage.php?album=19&pos=41

Edited November 24, 2012 by Rob Harbord

[johnholmes]

A preliminay view of the NAE and GFS suggests that the low will exit in the area just south of the Humber. on both models. This supported by the 15z pressure falls which would indicate it is deepening a bit and thus likely to turn a shade north of its current track.

No detail yet on rainfall totals from either model

Was bloody awful in 2007, never again, we were stuck upstairs for 3 days!

Infact this was the view from my bedroom window http://ukflood.co.uk...album=19&pos=41

looks it Rob-welcome to Net Wx, would you mind giving your town please? - many thanks

[Rob Harbord]

Hey John,

From Hull, so expecting some pretty grim weather over the next 72 hours!

I used to be quite a regular here but my old username R0b doesnt seem to be working anymore!

Edited November 24, 2012 by Rob Harbord

[paul m]

The rain has just started up here.....

[Zenarcher]

Wind started to pick up across England at the moment, a Easterly direction most places are reporting speeds around 18mph. Current radar images show the rain affecting much of England and Wales at the moment with some heavy stuff across the South.