Model Output Discussion 12z 27/11/2012

[cold snap]

oh my days.

Ecm goes to plan b and pulls it of bitter easterlys .back on the rollercoaster

incredible

[Zenarcher]

ECM's FI looks better than this morning,

216 hour chart pressure rises to our North,

Still a long way to go.

[bluearmy]

only an adjustment to jma with the warm sector early next week and the run couldnt have been drawn much better. i'm not sure a scandi high as soon as next week is on the agenda. however, the run shows you that we are a long way from mild unless that low comes into the atlantic from the south and phases as per the bOM 12z run. i wouldnt get too hung up on this evolution as it takes quite a few steps to get there. however, its good fun watching!

[Tim Bland]

Oh god, I had just accepted it was not going to happen! My mrs will kill me! Certainly looking increasingly good for the north east and high ground from mods northwards for early next week. We will need a few more upgrades before it gets exciting for us southern softie town dwellers

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?27-0

welcome to 1991.

Someone phone Francis wilson.

Just wish it was at 24 hours out rather than 216 hours out! God, this model watching is exhausting this year.

Steve remember that guy smashing the computer up you posted last night......Ian Brown peering over etc etc; well I think the person smashing his computer up tonight would be Ian Brown looking at that ECM run with you peering over! Haha.

[The Eagle]

The temperature profile on the ECM never reaches average. Is below throughout. Very cold nights were clear spells occur.

[SMU]

That red circle is right over my house steve.

Hi that red circle is the trough which needs to extend away to the SE-

The snow line is over the North sea- you are in the rain there if it stood.

S

[Snowy Easterlies]

Once again caution remains-

Dreadful model consistency-

Chasing at unrealistic timezones again-

Nice to see though-

yeah silly differences in FI compared to the ECM 00z, those good charts will look different again come the 00z, yep your right CAUTION must remain, but we all live in hope

[PolarWarsaw]

Great model watching over the last 10 days-

It looks like starting again, just remember what's happened the last 10 days-

Even if we get to t108- chances are a SW drama and everything but the kitchen sink will try and stop cold getting in easily-

I remain very, un-convinced-

[January Snowstorm]

I'll leave the 240hrs commentary to Steve

[Zakos]

This so called atlantic "breakdown" is going to be nothing but a mild blip.

0hours

96 hours, getting slowly colder.

144 hours, the so called "breakdown"

192 hours, the low that bought the mild blip dives down South Eastwards, dragging cold air across the UK on its northern flank.

t

216 hours, Scandi High forms, UK is plunged into the freezer.

240 hours. FANTASTIC chart.

So, to reiterate, there is no "breakdown" there is just a transitional period before the real cold sets in.

I appreciate this is just one run, and it could dissapear tommorow. But this is what the teleconnections support. Believe what you will, something akin to the latest ECM is what I expect to occur.

Edited November 27, 2012 by Zakos

[Fozfoster]

Hi that red circle is the trough which needs to extend away to the SE-

The snow line is over the North sea- you are in the rain there if it stood.

S

Which it will do LOL

[Isolated Frost]

And the ECM highlights what can happen in this current scenario. Reloads and reloads of cold with +ve pressure anomalies towards Svalbard and omnipresent troughing in Europe- plenty of this to come yet- expect sliders galore..

Btw, in between the 'cold', we have, well, cold with a strong nw/w flow on a nw-se tinted jet- cool flow w/ snow shrs on high ground and wintry shrs on northern hills and some parts of sern england-

This will be just the first run of many as the models get to grips with the new strat signals-

[Panayiotis]

Just wow! Too bad its FI (capital i!)...

Edited November 27, 2012 by panayiotis

[Daniel Miller]

I am rather confused, who was correct regarding this weekend, the ECM or UKMO?

Great ECM charts, but, as mentioned, a LONG way to go, could end up just like now, a freezing cold snowfest to a nippy extended weekend...

Wow at 240, Scandi High and bloody freezing... Compare this run to the 00z and it looks like a parallel universe.

Edited November 27, 2012 by Daniel Miller

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?27-0

& theres your freezer chart with 60 MPH easterlies + heavy snow for the south-

What a corker,-

remember folks- trough disruption will go more SW- how fars the Question- then the rebuild of pressure on the northern flank!

S

ENOUGH POSTS FROM ME

daniel- UKMO has been the best-

Edited November 27, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Matty M]

That last ECM chart is snowtastic for the Irish east coast, snow streamers would be in full action with only the Isle of Man Shadow preventing a dumping for many

[Isolated Frost]

-12c uppers entering the UK- vicious convective snow shrs down the east coast, penetrating inland

[The Eagle]

Beginning of a trend?

[Panayiotis]

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?27-0

& theres your freezer chart with 60 MPH easterlies + heavy snow for the south-

What a corker,-

remember folks- trough disruption will go more SW- how fars the Question- then the rebuild of pressure on the northern flank!

S

ENOUGH POSTS FROM ME

daniel- UKMO has been the best-

No no keep them coming, your posts are very informative! Edited November 27, 2012 by panayiotis

[Snowy Easterlies]

Yes that is a nice easterly in FI, but look at the PV, will everything topple or will heights build post T240 ? all conjuncture anyway and i am not taking this seriously at all, my fingers have been burnt too many times, these models are like trolls

[EML Network]

Holy Smokes !!

If this comes off, we'll all be glad the breakdown came when it did !

[PolarWarsaw]

Seeing such fantasy charts is great, I enjoy watching them-

It's just a shame there's about 0.5% of them coming off-

Run to be almost definetely gone by morning-

[ChartViewer]

-12c uppers entering the UK- vicious convective snow shrs down the east coast, penetrating inland

We will need to see many more runs...great to see dynamics, teleconnections, height anomaly showing here but suspect a cold outlier...potential there though

[Cheese Rice]

In the short-ish term the slider low is likely to deliver a nationwide snow event if it carries on tracking south.

The ECM/GFS/JMA etc all show snowfall across larger parts of the country.

Edited November 27, 2012 by Cheese Rice