South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 1st 2012>

[gottolovethisweather]

A happy clappy Mrs Floaty that's what I like to see....you need to show us your new dance for next Saturday Sam

Sounds great....have a good time Steve

My house smells lovely, a combo of turkey roasting, mulled wine, cinnamon candles and all things nice...I'm off to the garden centre this afternoon and then to the stables theatre tonight.

Hope your all having a good one too....I just love this time of year on days like this (still frosty in the shade by the bushes in my front garden)

All before the 25th December too.

[Great Plum]

Far too early for xmas decs, mulled wine et al.

TWELVE days of xmas, not 30!

'tis not (yet) the season to be jolly

Christmas creep IMHO is becoming a real problem especially in the last few years (driven mostly by commercial interests). It somehow cheapens Christmas when some people would have it start from the last Halloween parties.

Absolutely, it's advent, not Christmas! ( still, I love Christmas food !)

[gottolovethisweather]

Far too early for xmas decs, mulled wine et al.

TWELVE days of xmas, not 30!

'tis not (yet) the season to be jolly

Christmas creep IMHO is becoming a real problem especially in the last few years (driven mostly by commercial interests). It somehow cheapens Christmas when some people would have it start from the last Halloween parties.

Now there's an interesting topic of study, the phenological response of Christmas Day. Not a climate change reaction but more like consumer reaction.

If it sounds like I'm talking nonsense (most probably), one will have to visit my blog or google phenology.

Right, enough about Christmas creep, we don't want to upset our favourite mod.

MK, over to you.

Edited December 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Bluebreezer54]

Uh hum. No-one mentioned any dancing next Saturday night........until now

[Coast]

What a lovely day it's been out there!

Started really frosty:

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16716-winter-2012-007-cold-saab/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16715-winter-2012-005/

Then a hike across the downs for a few miles where it was clear, calm and cold

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16719-winter-2012-017/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16718-winter-2012-014/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16717-winter-2012-010/

On the way back home I saw a Sundog which I just about captured!

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16721-sundog-2/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16720-sundog-1/

Some pretty cold Cirrus up there this afternoon

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16722-winter-2012-021/

Edited December 2, 2012 by Coast

[NO LONGER POSTING]

still ice and frost on the ground here and temp falling possible snow before turns to rain??

[CanadaAl]

So do people think we might be in for a chance of some temporary snow tonight in our area? Even if it's only half an hour before it turns to rain i would be happy

[Coast]

Mulled wine is on here too, cheers everyone!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

So do people think we might be in for a chance of some temporary snow tonight in our area? Even if it's only half an hour before it turns to rain i would be happy

I think the more east you are yes, but snow is the hardest thing to forcast..Remember back last year, when the cold front was moving down from the north and was ment to swing back across the midlands but ended up being much further south and giving us 3-6" and the midlands only 1-3"

Edited December 2, 2012 by Surrey

[Blake7]

Temperature just about to hit 0c in Ramsgate.

[gottolovethisweather]

2.9c here currently from a maximum of just 4.3c. Mainly cloudy and the precipitation isn't that far away but it is only very slowly moving Eastwards. If it was to pep up a bit more, I would be more hopeful of a brief covering. I certainly won't know until approximately 5.30pm or so, judging by the latest radar imagery.

[Snowangel-MK]

'tis not (yet) the season to be jolly

Some of us are jolly all year round

In this house seasons greetings starts on the 1st December, but only lasts until new years eve..by new years day the decorations are down and things get back to normal (well as normal as they ever are here)

Uh hum. No-one mentioned any dancing next Saturday night........until now

Don't worry it's only Floatylight's demonstration of her new dance...joining in is entirely optional

[Hughsey]

I think there is the potential for a brief period of sleet/snow in the east before turning to rain, not expecting much this far south though. Think its all eyes on mid-week.

[fatyido]

I agree, although still very cold here in St.Neots, with my back garden and decking all still white from lasts night frost, I assume temps will slowly creep up when the front and cloud cover move in from the west. We are never lucky in these marginal situations when fronts move in from the west hitting our cold air, and I dont think tonight will be any different, but hey ho, its early Dec. and the signs are looking ok in the coming weeks.

[Mrsf16]

Current obs from Peterborough

Current Temp: 0.6°C

High Temp Today:3.4°C at 2:02pm

Low Temp Today:-1.3°C at 6:49am

Dew Point:-3.3°C

Wetbulb:-0.8°C

[Eskimo]

Temperatures will rise too quick for anyone to see snow. Don't be fooled by the low temperatures at the moment, my current temperature is -0.4C and I expect it to just touch -1C before quickly warming up. Also below 0C temperatures don't mean snow, it can be -5C and still rain, the upper air temps tonight will be far too high for anything remotely wintry.

Edited December 2, 2012 by PerfectStorm

[gottolovethisweather]

I'll tell you something, it sure will be a radar and lamp-post watch, judging by the GFS 12z output at <t+12.

Personally, I feel it won't happen in my location BUT who knows even at this range. The precipitation isn't going to arrive until much later than I predicted earlier, so that by itself may help. Please bear in mind, it is only transient snow and very little, if any, will settle on the ground. As I said earlier, I would like to see the precipitation pepping up further, as well.

Edited December 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Dexter29]

Afternoon guys,

Been a lovely day in Essex, went to hopefield animal sanctuary to the Christmas fete. Freezing cold but very festive. Leona Lewis performed as she is a patron of the charity. My god what a voice.

Anyway, temp already down to -1c here and frost hasn't lifted all day, just seen the BBC TV forecast and it looks like the rain will be arriving before to long. Oh well.

So last time I checked and was in the thread, Wednesday looked good for our region snow wise! Has this now disappeared?

[Eskimo]

Afternoon guys,

Been a lovely day in Essex, went to hopefield animal sanctuary to the Christmas fete. Freezing cold but very festive. Leona Lewis performed as she is a patron of the charity. My god what a voice.

Anyway, temp already down to -1c here and frost hasn't lifted all day, just seen the BBC TV forecast and it looks like the rain will be arriving before to long. Oh well.

So last time I checked and was in the thread, Wednesday looked good for our region snow wise! Has this now disappeared?

Snow threat still there

[gottolovethisweather]

Afternoon guys,

Been a lovely day in Essex, went to hopefield animal sanctuary to the Christmas fete. Freezing cold but very festive. Leona Lewis performed as she is a patron of the charity. My god what a voice.

Anyway, temp already down to -1c here and frost hasn't lifted all day, just seen the BBC TV forecast and it looks like the rain will be arriving before to long. Oh well.

So last time I checked and was in the thread, Wednesday looked good for our region snow wise! Has this now disappeared?

That is most probably where FI is right now, so nothing set in stone even at that range, I'm sure others will enlighten you further but that is how I currently see things.

[Ben_Cambs]

Going to do a summary based on just the 12z GFS and UKMO, as I'm not sure If I'll be able to do an update later. If I do have time later, I will update on the ECM 12z.:

Tonight, a front spreading rain and milder air will spread east, though the risk of any preceding wintry precipitation is very unlikely. A milder, wetter and windier day tomorrow. Into Tuesday, turning drier, colder and less windy as the day progresses. Increasing risk of wintry showers into Wednesday, with night-time frosts returning.

UKMO T+96: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

GFS T+96: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

General agreement out to next Thursday, with the weather being dominated by cool Polar Maritime air. At this point, an area of LP is centred just off the coast of NW Scotland. This will bring in some slightly milder air during the course of Thursday, an increasingly wet picture as the day progresses, though remaining cool.

UKMO T+120: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

GFS T+120: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

There is big disagreement over the upstream pattern. The major difference between the two is the depth of area of LP off the coast of Greenland. GFS has the low much deeper (sub.980mb) compared to UKMO (1000mb). Closer to the UK, both models have LP centred over Germany with minor differences between the two over the wind direction. Ground conditions would remain cold and unsettled with a slight risk of precipitation being wintry.

UKMO T+144: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GFS T+144: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Plenty of disagreement between these two models at this timeframe. UKMO has HP building in from the south, also deepening the low (c.995mb) centred on the east coast of Iceland. Meanwhile, GFS has heights ridging towards Greenland, and sends the deepening area of LP (centre c.975mb) towards the UK. UKMO would result in conditions settling down at least temporarily, with temperatures slightly below - average. GFS would result in yet more wet and windy weather, though milder than previous days.

GEFS London (T850) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

These are the ens from the 06z run. Colder than average conditions are more likely than not to continue throughout the first half of December.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It's too close to call, I think the hills will see some snow IMO

[Dexter29]

That is most probably where FI is right now, so nothing set in stone even at that range, I'm sure others will enlighten you further but that is how I currently see things.

Ok thanks, I just quickly browsed the MOD thread. Same old really, can't make sense of anything through conflicting posts.

I see the MOD thread is on a downer again for some reason, only the other day/ yesterday maybe, were those 70's charts showing and folk were very upbeat.

[gottolovethisweather]

Going to do a summary based on just the 12z GFS and UKMO, as I'm not sure If I'll be able to do an update later. If I do have time later, I will update on the ECM 12z.:

Tonight, a front spreading rain and milder air will spread east, though the risk of any preceding wintry precipitation is very unlikely. A milder, wetter and windier day tomorrow. Into Tuesday, turning drier, colder and less windy as the day progresses. Increasing risk of wintry showers into Wednesday, with night-time frosts returning.

UKMO T+96: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

GFS T+96: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png

General agreement out to next Thursday, with the weather being dominated by cool Polar Maritime air. At this point, an area of LP is centred just off the coast of NW Scotland. This will bring in some slightly milder air during the course of Thursday, an increasingly wet picture as the day progresses, though remaining cool.

UKMO T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

GFS T+120: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

There is big disagreement over the upstream pattern. The major difference between the two is the depth of area of LP off the coast of Greenland. GFS has the low much deeper (sub.980mb) compared to UKMO (1000mb). Closer to the UK, both models have LP centred over Germany with minor differences between the two over the wind direction. Ground conditions would remain cold and unsettled with a slight risk of precipitation being wintry.

UKMO T+144: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

GFS T+144: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

Plenty of disagreement between these two models at this timeframe. UKMO has HP building in from the south, also deepening the low (c.995mb) centred on the east coast of Iceland. Meanwhile, GFS has heights ridging towards Greenland, and sends the deepening area of LP (centre c.975mb) towards the UK. UKMO would result in conditions settling down at least temporarily, with temperatures slightly below - average. GFS would result in yet more wet and windy weather, though milder than previous days.

GEFS London (T850) http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

These are the ens from the 06z run. Colder than average conditions are more likely than not to continue throughout the first half of December.

An excellent sumary as ever Ben, many thanks.

I suspect you are also right about tonight and transient snowfall or snow to rain and rain to snow events will be the buzzwords this winter.

Edited December 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

gfs risk still there

ukmo looks ok

fax for wednesday still ok

tonight is and tomorrow morning is radar watch time

not sure at the moment