Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[bluearmy]

GFS 12z not as good with the undercutting. as per KW post earlier re the Pv we should see a different evolution to the 06z

[TEITS]

Im delighted with the UKMO because at least it has woke up and smelt the coffee and realised the SW heads SE, took its bloody time though!

The +144 chart is interesting though because it differs to the GFS and would probably follow on with a Channel LP undercutting the HP to the N.

[london-snow]

All aboard for the beasterly express !!!

UKMO is coming around to the GFS which is again steady as a rock !!

Let's hope the ECM is as you were or better So far so very good. By 7pm this evening it could be meltdown on here..

[Southender]

........Meanwhile the Polar Bears of Eastern Greenland and Svalbard are contemplating breaking out the BBQ next week........

[latitude]

Still cant see an easterly up to 180 on GFS 12.

[kold weather]

GFS 12z not as good with the undercutting. as per KW post earlier re the Pv we should see a different evolution to the 06z

In a weaker set-up that sort of issue could end up costing as dearly, but the blocking signal is so strong that it'll just mean a different solution later on in the run (say 216hrs onwards)

Not really an easterly this run, its a slightly different set-up, though still cold obviously.

[Harsh Climate]

In the end gfs 12z not as good

Just goes to show the many variables that COULD come into play, each having different consiquences

Edited December 5, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[ITSY]

somewhere could expect a serious battleground fall with this setup

Superb High Res from GFS yet again with the UKMO finally singing from a similar hymn sheet. JMA, GEM, BOM and, crucially, ECM still to roll out.

[Buriedundersnow]

do we not need the GFS to get the undercut earlier

[kold weather]

A bit of a mess in FI, there is just enough energy in the atlantic to undercut the set-up too much and shunt the upper high to our NE. Any less energy and things would be very different.

[Snowman.]

Different towards the end sends the low south rather north looks better for snow but NOT sustained cold,

[swfc]

I still think the block is too weak and wont sustain a full on easterly.Still cold but very complex and subject to big change as ever post 96 hrs

[ITSY]

In the end gfs 12z not as good

Just goes to show the many variables that COULD come into play, each having different consiquences

It really depends for where. If I were still in Leeds next week I wouldn't be too thrilled yet, but then i'll be in Cambridge and Colchester next week so...

It will be cold nationwide with possible snow nationwide at some stage however. setups like this will produce the goods

[bluearmy]

the 12z in low res comes up with possibly the longest trough extension in history at T264 !!!

[Methuselah]

How can anyone be downbeat after today's 12Z?

Think of what's got to happen for things to go wrong, now: the berries will all have to fall off the trees, en masse; the seagulls will all have to fly to Norway, en masse; the grebes will all need to do an 'about face', en masse - and the waxwings spontaneously combust. Also en masse!

Now, I don't believe in that degree of coincidence!

[NorthernRab]

With a chart like that, scotland would probably get snowed in, while the rest of us get flooded with rain..

Sounds alright?

[kold weather]

Nope, not a great FI at all...but its trying to put too much energy into the jet stream again and power away the heights rather too quickly I would suspect.

Ah well at least the first half was decent enough.

[Ice BIast]

Now that the UKMO is coming into line, you can almost guarantee that ECM will have a wobble, purely because the big 3 are in cahoots with Prozac!

You're probably right because before other cold spells, when the GFS and UKMO finally agreed on something, the ECM always changed its mind at the same time to something milder. Lets hope that today will be an exception.

[kold weather]

the 12z in low res comes up with possibly the longest trough extension in history at T264 !!!

Its just madness, I mean its not impossible but the FI goes totally against what the teleconnections and people such as GP have been telling us, and given its very different from other runs recently...into the bin it goes!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

the 12z in low res comes up with possibly the longest trough extension in history at T264 !!!

Was just thinking how strange it looked! Still, looks to me like heights are kept highish to the north throughout FI, no deep purples there. I wonder how different day 10 will look closer to the time?!

[PubliusEnigma]

12Z not as good at T204. High pulling away a little to the North east. The and the atlantic is a little more active to the NW,

putting pressure on the block.

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS goes into default pattern once in low resolution as always. Which is atlantic biased and block breaking in Fi. Info for new posters. Upto T144 posts are sensible after that it is as equal as a pin in the haystack.

[phil nw.]

There will inevitably be little differences as we lead into the pattern change next week-but the main first step is modelled now by day 5 on both UKMO and GFS.

We see the energy coming down from the vortex retreating and the trough into europe split by the linking of those heights.

I am not going to worry too much about detail beyond that yet.

[Southender]

Another FI that shows the PV totally mangled and headed East, post Day 10 onwards though...

Can only be a good thing.

Edited December 5, 2012 by Shrimper

[January Snowstorm]

Well I certainly wont be making any predictions of cold or snow until Sunday at the earliest.

Far too fickle at the moment.

The 12z is very cold but dry for 90% of us, not saying it's right of course