Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[Duane S.]

No no, not at all impressed with today's 12zs. The GFS has a woeful FI showing, the UKMET is a comparative train crash with the Atlantic about to burst through right through to Siberia and the ECM brings in a very disappointing charts indeed. Anyway, enough about last winter and onto today!!...

I say to those 'pragmatists' amongst us, go on... allow yourself a quiet little ramp because these charts (and certainly the ECMWF OP) are just about as good as it's going to get for an Easterly in

December. Stunning stunning ECM.

In fact, i'm looking at this, factoring in the upstream signals and wondering Where is any sustained mild spell going to come from before January at the earliest?? If the easterly does develop (not there yet) then there really is an increasing signal for a full on retrograde and that would probably lead to Atlantic incurrsions from the SW but quite frankly, so what if we get that first!!

I'm long enough in the tooth to know that this ECM 12z is a little bit special and it probably won't be quite as good as that BUT IT COULD and that's good enough for me right now!

[Summer Sun]

I have been on this forum as a member for 2 winters now and I can honestly say this is the best ever charts I've saw from ECM for cold and snow 930 users in this forum tells its own story this place will be in meltdown if these come off

Bring it on I'm more ready than ever before

[Tom Jarvis]

Guys + Girls- lets just be cautious here & wait for the 12s tomorrow when hopefully the UKMo will be on board at 96 & 120.-

If everything is still as planned then we can start to complete our usual checks Like:

All outside lamp bulbs working,

Stocks of Salt,

Anti freeze

Etc etc

THose seasoned campaigners have all been burnt before from this- I recall 4/5 years ago the GFS went for Beasterly after Beasterly in the 192-240 range, run after run of charts better than tonights ECM-

This was before meteociel days, we used to use the ECMWF link & WZ.-

The ECM came on board at 168 - the GEM was the same as the GFS & easterlies with sub -16c's at 156-168 adonned the forum. meltdown ensued.

It all disapeared overnight.

Also if we go back 7 years we had a smilar series of events from the GFS & got burnt from that- here was one of the runs- which ive got saved-

http://www.jp2webdes...s5/Rtavn961.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1201.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1681.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1801.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1921.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2161.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2401.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2521.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2641.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2761.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2881.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3001.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3241.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3481.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3721.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3841.gif

Yes thats 7 years saved that run!!!!!!!!!

So we have been burnt before- we need another day & full model agreement at 96 to feel safe.

Lastly *IF* something like the ECM arrived then totals of +50cms in the east like 1987 would be challenged-

S

would my location be buried steve??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yep, apologies. Getting far too excited! Just been reading this http://en.wikipedia....of_January_1881

huh, even back then Staffordshire only managed the usual 1-4 inches

[Roadrunner]

Have been a member here for nearly 7 years and, although I am no expert, I have never seen such a fantastic run as this. Usual caveats apply of course but wow wow wow.

I've witnessed the big let downs and the good times. So many times it looks like well score a cracker only to realise it's Fernando Torres on the end of a great through ball and he puts it in row z. Well maybe, just maybe, this time the models will give us Messi on the end of the pass and the holy grail will appear.

Here's hoping for a 1987 and 1991 re run. Lets hope the trend continues in the 18z and 0z.

[mountain shadow]

I here you Steve but Computers have moved on and i cannot see a possible spoiler as PV heads west.

The beginnings are into the reliable as well.

[ITSY]

Guys + Girls- lets just be cautious here & wait for the 12s tomorrow when hopefully the UKMo will be on board at 96 & 120.-

If everything is still as planned then we can start to complete our usual checks Like:

All outside lamp bulbs working,

Stocks of Salt,

Anti freeze

Etc etc

THose seasoned campaigners have all been burnt before from this- I recall 4/5 years ago the GFS went for Beasterly after Beasterly in the 192-240 range, run after run of charts better than tonights ECM-

This was before meteociel days, we used to use the ECMWF link & WZ.-

The ECM came on board at 168 - the GEM was the same as the GFS & easterlies with sub -16c's at 156-168 adonned the forum. meltdown ensued.

It all disapeared overnight.

Also if we go back 7 years we had a smilar series of events from the GFS & got burnt from that- here was one of the runs- which ive got saved-

http://www.jp2webdes...s5/Rtavn961.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1201.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1681.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1801.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1921.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2161.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2401.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2521.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2641.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2761.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2881.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3001.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3241.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3481.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3721.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3841.gif

Yes thats 7 years saved that run!!!!!!!!!

Note at the 384 hour mark it looks like the overnight GFS00!

So we have been burnt before- we need another day & full model agreement at 96 to feel safe.

Lastly *IF* something like the ECM arrived then totals of +50cms in the east like 1987 would be challenged-

S

Completely agree Steve. The difference this time around as that the building blocks, providing they stay as they are, will be within T+96 by this time tomorrow! IF something like ECM happened it would be a nationwide standstill again! For the moment though, the building blocks are edging closer and closer. If they are there come Friday then it is worth getting more excited! (If thats possible!).

[Froze were the Days]

Unfortunately I don't want to sound like a 'Glass half empty man' but the chances of that coming off or even remotely close to it are pretty minimal - an absolutely incredible run, the best I have seen in the medium term and as been mentioned probably snowier than 1987 and more widespread. Saying that though we certainly overall have seen some pretty good op runs now for the last day so there's a chance we could see a good easterly!

[weather eater]

That`s one incredible ECM run for cold and snow.It will be interesting to see the mean charts and ensembles later.

There`s little doubt that with all the operational runs showing the block establishing across to our north by day5 that this pattern change is coming.

It`s just down to how the block sets up and details wrt any little disturbances in the flow that would bring snow to many areas of the UK.

Let`s not forget we are already in a cold spell and some have had snow already, and with chances of some snow,particularly in Scotland and over high ground further south in the next 2 days.

To see this even colder set up modelled for next week is really an added bonus for cold lovers.

Yep Phil I don’t think there is much doubt now that we will see an easterly set-up. On a personal note I’d rather be seeing average synoptics for the next two or three days with upgrades to follow. The trouble with this run, is that it’s just about as good as it gets and therefore it’s going to be hard to sustain, people need to realise that we are going to see poorer runs over the next few days but that’s to be expected, there is no need to clutter up the thread with unnecessary gnashing and wailing.

My score for the ECM 12z is 11.5 out of a maximum of 12

[President Bartlett]

These charts are just incredible. I have learnt so much fromwatching this thread over the past several years and to see these charts now is quite amazing. I don't post very often as I am still not confident in my knowledge but thanks to all of you on this thread I think I am getting there.

Lets see if these model runs continue!

PB

[Weather-history]

yep, apologies. Getting far too excited! Just been reading this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_January_1881

Crikey, I forgot I wrote that on Wikipedia!

ECM is very cold and wintry, it can only be a matter of time, a chart like that comes off.

[snowice]

Unfortunately I don't want to sound like a 'Glass half empty man' but the chances of that coming off or even remotely close to it are pretty minimal - an absolutely incredible run, the best I have seen in the medium term and as been mentioned probably snowier than 1987 and more widespread. Saying that though we certainly overall have seen some pretty good op runs now for the last day so there's a chance we could see a good easterly!

I must say the ecm is quite good at +144hrs and a week ago the ukmo followed gfs and ecm so i wouldn`t worry!

Edited December 5, 2012 by snowice

[-uksnow-]

Well it would seem the meteociel website has crashed...no suprise there!

[Captain Shortwave]

Wow, just wow, if that run came off, I will safely say that I will be stuck here for a very long time. Maybe I could make myself some skis or attach tennis rackets to my shoes

[Met4Cast]

Whilst many of us HAVE been burned before, there's a difference here.

- Background signals fully supportive

- Ensemble means supportive

- Lack of a real PV

The fact that this is showing up on the ECM really is something, you'd expect the GFS to throw up an insane run like this now and again but to see this appearing on the ECM truly is something I have never, ever seen before in my 6 or so years of model watching. I'd urge caution because there is only ONE way forward from tonights ECM and that's down, it simply cannot possibly upgrade beyond this! I'd also expect to see it being a cold outlier within the ensembles though perhaps 1 or two showing SOME support.

The trend remains for a blocked cold pattern, ECM cold? Not impossible, but improbable.

[Beasterly]

Summary of ECM 12z:

Good news - Shows a Beasterly.

Bad news - This is as good as it gets so prepare yourself for downgrades.

[Fred Sykes]

Very good read on Ian Fergusons Twitter regarding the BEAST is Lurking!! http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/12/the-beast-from-the-east-is-lur.shtml

[Geordiesnow]

Summary of ECM 12z:

Good news - Shows a Beasterly.

Bad news - This is as good as it gets so prepare yourself for downgrades.

Depends on what you define a downgrade, is a downgrade if the next ECM shows a more watered down easterly, or not long lasting? I be just as happy if the next run shows that low pressure system slipping se'wards like it has been doing and worry about the rest a little later on.

The UKMO is coming on board and infact, its orientation of the Scandi high is pretty good, good run imo even if the detail is not quite there.

[Slinky]

The best charts I have ever seen on here, the next best ones disappeared from the next run if I recall correctly......?

One step at a time....

[minus 9]

The beast from the east a cometh. If the easterly is still showing in the next few days then i will relax. Until then caution needed. Amazing charts from the ecm though.

[weatherobsuk]

Reminds me of the 2008/2009 runs where for a time the predominant Easterly took advantage of warm SSTs in the North Sea to continually keep on dumping loads in the form of 'trains' and showers across the East including a handful making it as far inland as the Peaks. Continual ice-days will be welcome for those facing increased heating costs although the flip-side is that we need it cold for the energy firms to reduce the rates.

But with increased SO2 aerosols in the Atmosphere from Eritrea back last year it's a trend I hope to see SSW's being enhanced by. Fantasitc model run but +120hr is the make or break for me.

[Stoxs]

Christmas Paty night at the GFS HQ so with all the sloe gin and mulled wine consumed wait for the 18z,

superb model run there as steve has said we have seen this before and ended up with rain and +10 SW.

Next step will be the ensembles, then tomorrows model runs , but what a chance!

The big dipper roller coaster has arrived and taken on passengers wil it leave the station on the Polar Express?

[Froze were the Days]

Interesting to see what Mr Hugo and Co make of this? perhaps sliding off the fence towards the snowy/frosty garden?

As mentioned above stand by for some disappointments now, if that was +96z then I'd secretly be concerned for the welfare of animals and birdies outside.

[karlos1983]

2 things. 1: why is it so unlikely to come off, surely it is quite feasible if the models continue as they have yesterday/today, or is it just because we never get that sort of weather scenario? 2: if it happened in 1987 & 1991, what's to say it can't happen in 2010 & 2012, is it really that unlikely?

I am very cautious because I have seen similar runs come to nothing previously, but I can't help thinking a trip to The grit shop might be in order soon!

One last point, would it be fair to say the models are more reliable in comparison to say 10 years ago, due to advance in technology, science etc?

Cheers

Karl

Any replies welcome, these are questions rather than statements or beliefs. :-)

[ITSY]

ens?