Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[Matty M]

The ECM EPS appear to be quite positive, to 168hrs anyway. (as far as i can see on my feed)

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Updated Ensembles-

Day 10 on the OP still shows -3 MAXIMA- so with such a fine line between us & Debilt then its a great 'suite'

looking for the extended ensembles tonight- hopefully we will see the -25c scale brought out again!

S

[Ice BIast]

Another point to add is that the PV looks a lot different at T240. There certainly doesn't appear to be a strong signal from the ENS for the PV to be moving over Greenland like on the operational.

[Matty M]

http://www.knmi.nl/e...M_06260_NWT.png

Updated Ensembles-

Day 10 on the OP still shows -3 MAXIMA- so with such a fine line between us & Debilt then its a great 'suite'

looking for the extended ensembles tonight- hopefully we will see the -25c scale brought out again!

S

Strong support for a really intense PV over Northern Canada edging into Greenland however.

This coud very much prevent an advancement west of the block and the cold spells longevity.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Matty M

[SMU]

Strong support for a really intense PV over Northern Canada edging into Greenland however.

This coud very much prevent an advancement west of the block and the cold spells longevity.

not at all- its irrelevent really - get the right block over scandi & that PV will be sent packing-

S

[lorenzo]

Judging by the difference in the depth of LP on the operational run to the Ensemble it would appear that the ECM took some of the GFS dartboard medicine this evening. At 216 on the operational noticeable Aleutian and Greenland LP systems at 970mb, compared to nowt over Greenland on the Ens and 25mb difference over Aleutians.

Looks very extreme, would love to see an NH panel for the lottery of runs in there after day 5/6.

[Frosty.]

In Summary things have taken an upturn for cold lovers this evening.

That's good enough for me, thanks Gibby

[bluearmy]

the spread at day 10 on ecm mean has quite a notable depression stuck around iceland. if the block is in place to the east near nw scandi, then plenty of availability for some WAA to keep it there.

[london-snow]

ECM Ens suite mean for 168hrs - Not to far out from what the gfs was showing earlier a few small adjustments and bingo...

Anyway wont be viewing the pub run as i am off to bed for a 2am wake up call. There is more bigger things at stake than weather & that is India v England in the cricket. See you all for the 00s..

Edited December 4, 2012 by london-snow

[chionomaniac]

Judging by the difference in the depth of LP on the operational run to the Ensemble it would appear that the ECM took some of the GFS dartboard medicine this evening. At 216 on the operational noticeable Aleutian and Greenland LP systems at 970mb, compared to nowt over Greenland on the Ens and 25mb difference over Aleutians.

Looks very extreme, would love to see an NH panel for the lottery of runs in there after day 5/6.

Look at Iceland on those charts, L. It certainly looks better on the ensemble mean than the operational. Now that could be due to a difference in timings - but my guess is that the mean has everything further west.

[Buriedundersnow]

with regards to the snow forecast for thursday will this not be a more widespread snowfall than that the other night.

looking at the models GFS, ECM and UKMO and the 850 temps all three models dont show anywhere in the uk gettin above around -2 or -1 uppers where as in the last snow fall the other night the only reason there wasnt snow in the south was due to a warm sector passing over england and wales now i'm in scotland and the warm sector passed to our south and the snow didnt turn back to rain as predicted in my location and stayed as snow till the front had passed over and i live right at sea level.

with the upper air temps to stay lower over the whole of the uk with this next low moving thru do u not think with the fact it stayed snowing here with uppers around the same last time as is predicted to be the lowest anywhere will see in the uk this time round and it never turned to rain even though it was predicted to last time there might be a greater snow event on its way even though they arent predicting it to be.

[karlos1983]

That's good enough for me, thanks Gibby

Careful, I'm certain we saw a similar post to that last night, and we are all aware of what followed :-)

[Frosty.]

Careful, I'm certain we saw a similar post to that last night, and we are all aware of what followed :-)

LOL yeah the 6z

[nick sussex]

Latest CPC charts:

6 to 10 day

8 to 14 day

Lovely........

I feel a Xmas song coming on!

[leemondo]

Latest CPC charts:

6 to 10 day

8 to 14 day

Lovely........

I feel a Xmas song coming on!

So do i, it goes something like...........................

You better not laugh,

you better not cry,

these charts mean nothing to my untrained eye!

Edited December 4, 2012 by leemondo

[bluearmy]

Latest CPC charts:

6 to 10 day

8 to 14 day

nick - you can look back at the 22/11 for the current period. just to curtail the singing a touch.

[Shunter]

Latest CPC charts:

6 to 10 day

8 to 14 day

Lovely........

I feel a Xmas song coming on!

Nothing wrong with those charts, almost a repeat of yesterday's charts, good consistency there..

[Southern Storm]

Latest CPC charts:

6 to 10 day

8 to 14 day

Lovely........

I feel a Xmas song coming on!

Sorry to ask this but how are the charts you posted produced? Are they computer generated or drawn like FAX charts?

[Summer Sun]

Latest CPC charts:

6 to 10 day

8 to 14 day

Lovely........

I feel a Xmas song coming on!

How about

Back to the models and as well as Wednesday night into Thursday been of interest early Friday is as well

Edited December 4, 2012 by Gavin.

[nick sussex]

nick - you can look back at the 22/11 for the current period. just to curtail the singing a touch.

Don't be such a grump!

Yes I just did, off to shoot a couple of reindeer now as you've harpooned my Xmas spirit!

Back on topic....... yes they're not always accurate but given current trends they could be if things go well!

[nick sussex]

Sorry to ask this but how are the charts you posted produced? Are they computer generated or drawn like FAX charts?

They're compiled on weekdays by the duty forecaster, at weekends though they're computer generated.

Edited December 4, 2012 by nick sussex

[Timmytour]

Not quite sure what the mood is in the thread....Whateverit is I'm sure the 18z wil be working to turn it on its head!

This is where it all went a bit Pete Tong yesterday. For me it's all about the path of the lows heading over Iceland. If they can start sending them under Iceland instead s tey fall away a bit quicker it could be an epic run. But that's all it will be, a run. Even it it happened i woudn't be surprised to see it contradicted a few hours later!

[karlos1983]

Not quite sure what the mood is in the thread....Whateverit is I'm sure the 18z wil be working to turn it on its head!

This is where it all went a bit Pete Tong yesterday. For me it's all about the path of the lows heading over Iceland. If they can start sending them under Iceland instead s tey fall away a bit quicker it could be an epic run. But that's all it will be, a run. Even it it happened i woudn't be surprised to see it contradicted a few hours later!

That's the spirit, but I quietly share your reservations/cautions.

[ICETAB]

Anyone got a link to the long range ECM ensembles? I'm guessing they're not as good as yesterdays 12z because no comments...

[SnowObsessor90]

Not quite sure what the mood is in the thread....Whateverit is I'm sure the 18z wil be working to turn it on its head!

This is where it all went a bit Pete Tong yesterday. For me it's all about the path of the lows heading over Iceland. If they can start sending them under Iceland instead s tey fall away a bit quicker it could be an epic run. But that's all it will be, a run. Even it it happened i woudn't be surprised to see it contradicted a few hours later!

Indeed, the 18z can be party pooper at times as has been demonstrated over the last day or so. Will it continue that trend tonight? well we only just under an hour and a quarter to find out.