North of England Regional Discussion - 05/12/2012

[SouthPennine88]

http://www.metoffice...recast/?tab=map

Turns to rain according to this, upgrade for us in the fact that there is the heavy snow sybol over us for longer that previous.

Let's hope the next update postpones the rain even further by another 3 hours ... although this wouldn't be possible since the temperatures would have lowered again by then

[sunny scunny]

We can dream, can't we mate?

It really is incredible that we are seeing charts like this so early in the winter. As always though i'm trying not to get excited until it's nailed on, and at the moment we are not quite there yet, but getting nearer.

[Allseasons-Si]

I will be there, i will keep hoping and chasing until one day when i will either see an 87 /91 event deliver for me again or i pass.

or even 81/82

i do remember it well,there was snow drifts up to my bedroom window when i was a young teen,i could just jump out of my window into it but my dad said what r u doing,lol!

[Cheese Rice]

ECM/GFS has got me all excited for snow

[Slowpoke]

I know what you mean. But if November 2010 taught us anything, with the right charts the cold can be thrown over us early on. I get this inkling that the first half will be better than the second half. Last year was very odd, we had the cold start to February and we only just missed out on that record breaking cold affecting the rest of Europe. Then we get into March and we had that weird high pressure that gave us an early Heatwave.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2012_United_Kingdom_heat_wave

[feb1991blizzard]

One day all these winters with a southerly tracking jet will come to an end and we will revert, but while it lasts, i can say that i was there and i experienced it.

[Slowpoke]

One day all these winters with a southerly tracking jet will come to an end and we will revert, but while it lasts, i can say that i was there and i experienced it.

And our weather will be?

[Allseasons-Si]

One day all these winters with a southerly tracking jet will come to an end and we will revert, but while it lasts, i can say that i was there and i experienced it.

true mate,we are in a lucky period that our ansestors would of witnessed many years ago and to tell us what it was like then,we NOW look like we are in a simular cluster of winters that could reflect that era,i am so happy right now,and to witness 2010/11,all be it a short snowmageddon,it was fab,this winter looks awsome at the moment

Si

[feb1991blizzard]

And our weather will be?

Stonking next week hopefully but mild muck in years to come, or maybe madden is right and we will see an ice age!!!

[Slowpoke]

this winter looks awsome at the moment

Si

Indeed it does.

We should remember that the Winter of Discontent (63) didn't get into 5th gear until January. We've got plenty of time for some snowmaggedon scenarios!

[Backtrack]

Good mate thankyou, yourself?

Let's just hope we don't have a pathetic repeat of last winter, what a joke!

All the signals are in our favour so all we can do is model watch and hope, I have a good feeling about the second half of December though

I'm not too bad thanks

The signals favour the east, wouldn't surprise me at all if we came out of this month snowless.

[Alex95]

The snow is sticking to the washing line still, indicating a lack of thawing. Anyway, night all, good luck for tomorrow if you live on high ground!

[Slowpoke]

I'm not too bad thanks

The signals favour the east, wouldn't surprise me at all if we came out of this month snowless.

Stay positive mate, we've got til like March 31st for snoooow. We'll get some, and I hope its a lot!

[feb1991blizzard]

true mate,we are in a lucky period that our ansestors would of witnessed many years ago and to tell us what it was like then,we NOW look like we are in a simular cluster of winters that could reflect that era,i am so happy right now,and to witness 2010/11,all be it a short snowmageddon,it was fab,this winter looks awsome at the moment

Si

Thats the thing and i think i do get on peoples nerves on this forum with my constant love of cold no matter what, i will say this, if we dont achieve a winter with at least a few spells that will go down in history with everything in our favour now, then i would say that the last few years was a blip, if we see anything like 87 or 91 with some other spells chucked in then i would say we are defining a spell of historical winters, i got into this in the 80s because i hated school and wanted it shut but i just carried on loving snow for some reason, i gave up in about 97 or 98 and did not get back into it until i missed out by 8 miles in feb 09, if you would have said to me that i would have lived through a sub zero month (massively sub zero in the case of this location), i would have said you were stark raving bonkers so i suppose i should be grateful, i just want to cap it off by seeing 5 and 6 foot pennine drifts though.

[Mick Ormiston]

4 hours to get home tonight..not good with a broken window when some scrote robbed my work van.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking at Neil Bradshaw's site, the South Shields area must be quite slushy/icy because the temperature crept above 3C around 5-7pm- presumably due to a temporary easterly component to the wind that brought enhanced warming at the coast (this may also have caused the readings of 3C at Boulmer). Meanwhile it was -0.5C here last time I checked, but no snow on the ground. Tomorrow's event looks interesting but I haven't had more than a slight dusting from fronts so far, so my expectations are quite low.

If anything like tonight's ECMWF outputs from T+144 onwards get to within T+72 then my expectations will be very different, however!

Edited December 5, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[reef]

A bit disappointing here, most of the showers were too far east despite being only a few miles from the coast. What few did make it inland were killed off by the North York Moors and Yorkshire Wolds.

Nevertheless we still have a thin covering which if it manages to stay intact by 0900 will just qualify as a snow lying day.

Currently 0.2C and -1.6C dewpoint, I expect it will really fall when the cloud moves out during the night.

[Slowpoke]

4 hours to get home tonight..not good with a broken window when some scrote robbed my work van.

Sorry to hear that mate, Broken Britain eh?

[Brass_Monkeys]

Good evening all. Exciting times from a cold weather pov. Amazing charts today with some serious cold being modelled for next week. As has been mentioned the Eastern side is always going to fair best with regards to snow. But, with a strong enough flow and perhaps some embedded troughs or lows pushing up from the south, there is always the potential for some snowfall out west.

In the short term, very cold tonight and maybe a little front edge snow in the morning before it turns to rain (IMBY). Be nice to see a few flakes even it is only a brief affair Locations at and above around 200m should see quite a prolonged snow event in the NW.

Currently:

Temperature: -3.2 °C

Dew Point: -6.2 °C

and falling....

Edited December 5, 2012 by Brass_Monkeys

[martinj2]

-1C here. Won't go lower.

What's that I smell? RAAAAAAAAAAAIN

Yeah I think I can confirm this temp inversion been -1C here since around 7oclock-refuses to budge.

[MrSunshine]

Good evening all. Exciting times from a cold weather pov. Amazing charts today with some serious cold being modelled for next week. As has been mentioned the Eastern side is always going to fair best with regards to snow. But, with a strong enough flow and perhaps some embedded troughs or lows pushing up from the south, there is always the potential for some snowfall out west.

In the short term, very cold tonight and maybe a little front edge snow in the morning before it turns to rain (IMBY). Be nice to see a few flakes even it is only a brief affair Locations at and above around 200m should see quite a prolonged snow event in the NW.

Currently:

Temperature:-3.2 °C

Dew Point:-6.2 °C

and falling....

I'm at 168m here mate on the side of Billinge Hill, do you think snow is possible here in the morning?

[Cheese Rice]

Max of 0.8c today, dusting of snow/frost managed to stay on the ground.

Temperatures were below freezing for most of the day creeping above for a couple of hours.

Current temp -2.5c, hasn't dropped much since 8pm so it'll be interesting to see if we get a really cold night.

NMM has slightly upgrade snow potential for tomorrow with a graphics now showing some snow rather than a sleet fest. NAE looks good but it's hard to know if sleet or snow is forecast.

Edited December 5, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Aaron]

Temperature here is -2.4C and is falling pretty fast now that the wind has died down. Could have been a lot lower, but there's always something, eh?

[Brass_Monkeys]

I'm at 168m here mate on the side of Billinge Hill, do you think snow is possible here in the morning?

You've certainly got an advantage with your elevation. I'd think you'd be unlucky not to see a few flakes falling for a while. Fingers crossed

[dodge]

-4c - hard frost already, hope to see a little transitional snow at least tomorrow, just a shame it's due to arrive in the middle of the day. Hope temps don't rise too quickly.

Edited December 6, 2012 by dodgeredee