North of England Regional Discussion - 05/12/2012

[Geordiesnow]

I won't say in the model thread as I don't want to ruin the mood too much but regarding the easterly, just remember we are in December and not mid January onwards, SST's will be warmer atm so whilst the charts look good on paper, they do look a bit marginal for us eastern folk, GFS temps profile reflects this!

If any unstable easterly flow do come off, then I really hope the lack of cold uppers won't bite us in the backside!

Regarding the hear and now, it seems temperatures could very well get colder than first thought in the region, I wonder if this is because of the fairly surprising snow cover we got? If skies stay mainly clear for the rest of the night and thicker cloud only topples in by dawn, then I think tomorrow could be very interesting indeed if albeit sadly a bit marginal.

[MrSunshine]

-1C here. Won't go lower.

What's that I smell? RAAAAAAAAAAAIN

Suddenly dropped big time here now. -2.5 with a dew point of -6.0!

[Chris.R]

Spoke too soon temp dropping quickly now, currently -1.5c

[PMPhotography]

I won't say in the model thread as I don't want to ruin the mood too much but regarding the easterly, just remember we are in December and not mid January onwards, SST's will be warmer atm so whilst the charts look good on paper, they do look a bit marginal for us eastern folk, GFS temps profile reflects this!

If any unstable easterly flow do come off, then I really hope the lack of cold uppers won't bite us in the backside!

Regarding the hear and now, it seems temperatures could very well get colder than first thought in the region, I wonder if this is because of the fairly surprising snow cover we got? If skies stay mainly clear for the rest of the night and thicker cloud only topples in by dawn, then I think tomorrow could be very interesting indeed if albeit sadly a bit marginal.

Was just thinking the same thing. I'm happy with the trend though and will worry about marginality closer to the time if it pulls off. Certainly wouldn't need to worry if the ECM's 850's we're right. Even a halfway meet between GFS and ECM would be good enough.

[Andy_]

I won't say in the model thread as I don't want to ruin the mood too much but regarding the easterly, just remember we are in December and not mid January onwards, SST's will be warmer atm so whilst the charts look good on paper, they do look a bit marginal for us eastern folk, GFS temps profile reflects this!

If any unstable easterly flow do come off, then I really hope the lack of cold uppers won't bite us in the backside!

Regarding the hear and now, it seems temperatures could very well get colder than first thought in the region, I wonder if this is because of the fairly surprising snow cover we got? If skies stay mainly clear for the rest of the night and thicker cloud only topples in by dawn, then I think tomorrow could be very interesting indeed if albeit sadly a bit marginal.

Yup we really need the transferal of them very cold uppers from western Siberia ala the ECM, the GFS doesn't drop these uppers into Europe so we never getting the frigid cold... I'll stick with the ECM solution ha

[Thundery wintry showers]

If the GFS and ECMWF "easterly" charts come off then I think falling and lying snow to low levels are highly probable upwards of 5-10 miles inland from the east coast, but I agree that areas near the coast would be pretty marginal. During my years at Cleadon an easterly or north-easterly with 850hPa temperatures around -7C would generally bring a barrage of hail and sleet showers off the North Sea at this time of year, with temperatures of around 4C in the clear intervals and falling to around 2C in the showers, while Durham would generally have falling and lying snow. I think the last three frames of the ECMWF operational run could well be conducive to lying snow right out to the east coast though as the 850hPa temps drop to near -10C.

Thus I find those synoptics rather more exciting from the perspective of my current location than I would if I was still living in Cleadon, though even if I was in Cleadon I would be excited at the possibility of some significant wintry convection coming in off the North Sea.

I'm not allowing myself to get too excited just yet though as the north-easterlies are only just coming into the semi-reliable timeframe and there is still time for them to be replaced with relatively dry cloudy south-easterlies, albeit with recent runs having trended away from those.

Edited December 5, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[Slowpoke]

I think this time is much different though, check the ECM, UKMO & GFS, all of them are in agreement of a clean Easterly, you lot will get pasted, including Teeside. It's much harder for us in the west to get snow, trust me.

So much potential for you guys!

We need lower pressure. I cba with another late-November 2010 type situation with the ice, frost and bitter winds knowing that snow is just a breath away, we had to wait til December COME ON!

EYE CANDEH:

Edited December 5, 2012 by Slowpoke

[sunny scunny]

I wonder how many members will be setting their alarm to view the next GFS run lol.

[Slowpoke]

I wonder how many members will be setting their alarm to view the next GFS run lol.

[feb1991blizzard]

I will be there, i will keep hoping and chasing until one day when i will either see an 87 /91 event deliver for me again or i pass.

[Geordiesnow]

Yup we really need the transferal of them very cold uppers from western Siberia ala the ECM, the GFS doesn't drop these uppers into Europe so we never getting the frigid cold... I'll stick with the ECM solution ha

To be fair, even the GFS brings patchy -10hpa on our shores although in general the uppers are around -8 or so. I think our risk of snow on the 18Z run and indeed on the ECM is from Monday evening to Tuesday morning with a Northerly flow, nothing spectacular with the uppers but cold enough for convective weather and if lower ground winds stay off shore then I don't see why showers can't fall as snow.

Only real difference between the ECM and GFS runs is the orientation of the Scandi high which is the difference between sending that much colder pool our way or further away from us. Looking at the UKMO, you would think the ECM is perhaps more likely to be right but of course, plenty of more runs needed.

[Slowpoke]

I will be there, i will keep hoping and chasing until one day when i will either see an 87 /91 event deliver for me again or i pass.

I wouldn't mind a December 2010 repeat to be honest, we had so much fun lamp post watching on here, watching that white stuff fall is just magical

[Backtrack]

We need lower pressure. I cba with another late-November 2010 type situation with the ice, frost and bitter winds knowing that snow is just a breath away, we had to wait til December COME ON!

EYE CANDEH:

I want a polar low in the Irish Sea, just to shut the Easteners up. Show them what our sea can do!

[Slowpoke]

I want a polar low in the Irish Sea, just to shut the Easteners up. Show them what our sea can do!

Hey Backtrack! Long time no speak

Agreed mate, but I'll take that to get the cold in place then throw us a polar low

[SP1986]

Endless cold gets tiring to be honest, the only reason we really like snow is because we dont see it often, it gets of gripped by it's rarity, so when it shows up it's the best thing ever.. I would go along with this, however when it's coupled with sub zero temperature every day, it becomes horrible really!

[SouthPennine88]

Still snow forecast for much of the am and pm for me before turning to rain in the late afternoon (Met Office), but this seemingly conflicts with their own weather forecast map that seemingly suggests no rain, just snow.

[Slowpoke]

We just love extremes in the UK, and we get them! I love the cold and snow just as much as I love the big heatwaves (late May 2012 for an example, that was beautiful)!

[feb1991blizzard]

I wouldn't mind a December 2010 repeat to be honest, we had so much fun lamp post watching on here, watching that white stuff fall is just magical

Was definately a great month in terms of being historical, the best fall we had though was around 6 or 7 inches (November but was still on the fround in dec), the one thing i want is an individual fall of a foot of level snow again, some of you on the coast did get that though on the 17th (friday) if i remember, i only got 3 inches from that.

[Backtrack]

Hey Backtrack! Long time no speak

Agreed mate, but I'll take that to get the cold in place then throw us a polar low

How's it going mate

I like endless cold tbh, gives more chances of disturbances in the flow.

A good battleground or polar low will suite me any day.

[Aaron]

Endless cold gets tiring to be honest, the only reason we really like snow is because we dont see it often, it gets of gripped by it's rarity, so when it shows up it's the best thing ever.. I would go along with this, however when it's coupled with sub zero temperature every day, it becomes horrible really!

Snow only becomes horrible when it thaws and freezes - yuck. Would rather be in a place where snow does not melt, so it doesn't become an evil icy crapfest.

[Slowpoke]

We just love extremes in the UK, and we get them! I love the cold and snow just as much as I love the big heatwaves (late May 2012 for an example, that was beautiful)!

This was a beautiful spell in Blackpool!

[feb1991blizzard]

Still snow forecast for much of the am and pm for me before turning to rain in the late afternoon (Met Office), but this seemingly conflicts with their own weather forecast map that seemingly suggests no rain, just snow.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=map

Turns to rain according to this, upgrade for us in the fact that there is the heavy snow sybol over us for longer that previous.

[Slowpoke]

How's it going mate

I like endless cold tbh, gives more chances of disturbances in the flow.

A good battleground or polar low will suite me any day.

Good mate thankyou, yourself?

Let's just hope we don't have a pathetic repeat of last winter, what a joke!

All the signals are in our favour so all we can do is model watch and hope, I have a good feeling about the second half of December though

[sunny scunny]

I wouldn't mind a December 2010 repeat to be honest, we had so much fun lamp post watching on here, watching that white stuff fall is just magical

Indeed that would be amazing thats for sure.get the Easterly first and who knows how much snow we could get

[Slowpoke]

Indeed that would be amazing thats for sure.get the Easterly first and who knows how much snow we could get

We can dream, can't we mate?