Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS T111 Another westward shift - Reliable timeframe Upgrades...

The whole dropping trough is 200 miles ish further west and much more WAA into greenland. Even though the uppers have downgraded ever so slightly which is not of concern with such block in place but trending probably closer to the mean now. Much better organised and for longer length of timeframe.

EDIT A bit messy at T150 up towards East Greenland.

Edited December 6, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[scottishandy]

GFS 00z even quicker and slightly further west and heights further north and just getting even better at T108!

[Snowy Liverpool]

Crazy warm pool over Greenland on this run

[Zenarcher]

It's hard to believe that a upgrade was possible after a good 18z but the 00z makes improvements even in the 48 hour time frame things are much further West, high pressure systems stronger and some low pressure systems weaker.

[scottishandy]

Or maybe just a different solution coming, Lots less energy in the low that is about to undercut and heights looking to head in more of a Greenland direction. Quite significant changes in Candian vortex shaping as well.

[Snowy Easterlies]

amazing run so far, atlantic is held back even further at T150 on this run

[Snowy Liverpool]

PV detaches from those much weaker LPs in the atlantic and we say hello to the Greenland High hopefully.

[Zenarcher]

PV detaches from those much weaker LPs in the atlantic and we say hello to the Greenland High hopefully.

Wouldn't be surprised if this happened both the 12z and 18z cluster maps went with a Greenland high eventually anyway lets see what happens!

[swfc]

The low dropping threw svalbard may the connection to sib high and cut off the more direct easterly flow??

[Mucka]

[Jupiters Winter]

ukmo looks much better. GFS good upto the end of high resolution then no holds barred territory as per usual. Plenty of differences on the GFS - still long way top go.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012120600/UN144-21.GIF?06-05

a NICE Ukmo this morning- Not the historic type charts of last night but lots of snow moving around / through the UK-

S

[swfc]

Gfs for me is not great with its positioning and intensification of the high and its push eastwards.one run tho

[london-snow]

Solid 00s thus far gfs again leading the way forward. UKMO as I previously mentioned coming inline with each run. So far so good again let's hope the ECM can also keep up the feel good feeling !

[Jupiters Winter]

Dont be disheartened after yesterdays SUPER charts most will feel like this today. But hey let it downgrade a bit for it to upgrade closer to the time.....

Gfs for me is not great with its positioning and intensification of the high and its push eastwards.one run tho

[Snowy Easterlies]

GFS is more blocked than UKMO, is the UKMO good flow looks a bit slack at T144

[Jupiters Winter]

In comparison that may be the case but last 3-4 runs the model has been tilting towards the GFS and ECM and has and is continuing to fall into line with GFS/ECM. Maybe another run or two and it will be mirroring the GFS or ECM;... Anyhow reasonable agreement with models for now.

GFS is more blocked than UKMO, is the UKMO good flow looks a bit slack at T144

Edited December 6, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[Mucka]

GEM really develops the trough to our South and all 3 models so far this morning have this having more of an influence over our weather in the mid term.

Something to keep an eye on perhaps.

[PolarWarsaw]

Would that be a good or bad thing Mucka?

[Jupiters Winter]

GEM is going for one massive undercut in Fi and has differed to the GFS and ECM on this run. (not to good)

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

NOGAPS at T144 also shows that low towards the SW as the UKMO.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

Edited December 6, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[Snowy Easterlies]

http://modeles.meteo...h-2-1-228.png?0

could this happen by next weekend, this chart is good, but it would be so typical if we ended up with a west based NAO after all this talk of a scandi high

Edited December 6, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Jupiters Winter]

Just gone through them - Majority seem to be favouring the energy going underneath the block at that timeframe with positive heights towards greenland. Interesting ECM coming up next I suppose. So far the 00Z's seem to be fine tuning, not much negativity about them so far.

http://modeles.meteo...h-2-1-228.png?0

could this happen by next weekend, this chart is good, but it would be so typical if we ended up with a west based NAO after all this talk of a scandi high

[Mucka]

Would that be a good or bad thing Mucka?

Depends.

I think the SE contingent would much prefer it stay to the South and not interfere with the flow of cold uppers but short term it may also increase the snow risk, especially for those further West and North.

It could possibly open the door for the Atlantic if it pushes too far North but it could also encourage retrogression while keeping us under a cold pool.

It is not worth fretting over though because it is one of those details that will keep changing over the next few days but it is worth keeping an eye on to see if developing it and pushing it further North becomes a trend..

Edited December 6, 2012 by Mucka

[Wilxy]

Id say the gfs has shifting the high further west again on this run, although shortwave to the east further north and a possible one east of iceland, nothing to panic about tho at this stage.

Overall id say these are encouraging signs.

Edited December 6, 2012 by TomW

[karlos1983]

Nice uppers on ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0