Model Output Discussion - 18z - 6th December onward

[Jupiters Winter]

UKMO T144 OK. GOOD

http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

AND GFS Salutes Steve Murr - The block holds into low resolution with undercut and undercut and undercut.

AND I WILL TAKE THE WHOLE OF THAT 00Z GFS FROM START TO FINISH ( Probably will never say that ever again)

Edited December 7, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[Snowy Easterlies]

that low just seems to die out when it hits us at T204, i refuse to get excited about potential for that though, there is a clear downgrade in the short term, but as i said it somehow stays cold on this run well into FI

UKMO better than GFS but still a downgrade on yesterdays run IMO

Edited December 7, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Snowy Easterlies]

UKMO T144 OK. GOOD

http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

AND GFS Salutes Steve Murr - The block holds into low resolution with undercut and undercut and undercut.

AND I WILL TAKE THE WHOLE OF THAT 00Z GFS FROM START TO FINISH ( Probably will never say that ever again)

yeah its a cold run for sure, but you can't deny the easterly has disappeared and blocking is far weaker on this run, compared to what was shown over the last few days, UKMO is not bad but what would happen after T144 ? now we wait for the ECM, best to judge after that

[Jupiters Winter]

Short term details change and to be relied more upon Fax and higher resolution models for precipitation. the ramp was for the pattern which holds and first run to show this and fits in with the pros thoughts. Block is strong in this run.

yeah its a cold run for sure, but you can't deny the easterly has disappeared and blocking is far weaker on this run, compared to what was shown over the last few days, UKMO is not bad but what would happen after T144 ? now we wait for the ECM, best to judge after that

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS Surface cold Max for the Midlands from T118 to the end of the run is 2C. overnights REAL low. If no precipitation we could have mm's of frost and ice.

[ZONE 51]

GFS 00z - Freezing, the deeper cold does make it across, the deep low north Atlantic is closer early in the week, to me the model appears to show a delay, a battle, maybe not as deep cold widespread as the 18z(early)look at Thursday chart 850/1000hpa above(00+168hrs), now that is very cold air mass over us, and look to the east the big freeze.

All i can see is a very cold spell developing next week, we are at Friday and a few adjustments to be made yet for this, it's going to be a bouncy ride this weekend, but please do relax!!

Edited December 7, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[EML Network]

I think a lot of us will have learn't a lot about model watching in this past few weeks, which is not to believe a thing the models show post + 144 , makes you wonder why they even bother going out to +384 really .

I feel like I have just stumbled across a lottery ticket I had bought previously and misplaced, checked it, only to find out it was one of the winning tickets (all 6 numbers), called Camelot only to find it expired yesterday = GUTTED :-(

Edited December 7, 2012 by EML Network

[Adam lufc]

Guys one person says amazing. The next says shocking. Get a grip.

[Snowy Easterlies]

I think a lot of us will have learn't a lot about model watching in this past few weeks, which is not to believe a thing the models show post + 144 , makes you wonder why they even bother going out to +384 really .

I feel like I have just stumbled across a lottery ticket I had bought previously and misplaced, checked it, only to find out it was one of the winning tickets (all 6 numbers), called Camelot only to find it expired yesterday = GUTTED :-(

yep but we always get sucked in and we will never learn, people can bang on about this being a cold run still, but what we are after will be in short supply until a potential low hits us next weekend and no way am i hanging my hopes on a potential undercutter which is at T192

GEM is also a downgrade from yesterdays run in the short term, but at T180 the blocking comes back over scandi, but again, im not falling for it, as its FI

lets hope the ECM saves us

Edited December 7, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[PolarWarsaw]

It does seem like we can't get the truly interesting Synoptics the right side of t90. This has been a downgrade but it's only a couple of runs. It might be a trend, it could be the GFS going off on one.

I'm not remotely excited or even thinking about next weeks potential yet anyway. Even if we get full model consensus, widespread bitter has never got closer than the t120-t144 period and even if it does, we have all sorts of dramas, including SW's, lows, highs and the rest of it.

Get it to t72 and I'll be happy. Until then, many more dramas, swings, downgrades, upgrades etc to come.

[Snowy Easterlies]

It does seem like we can't get the truly interesting Synoptics the right side of t90. This has been a downgrade but it's only a couple of runs. It might be a trend, it could be the GFS going off on one.

I'm not remotely excited or even thinking about next weeks potential yet anyway. Even if we get full model consensus, widespread bitter has never got closer than the t120-t144 period and even if it does, we have all sorts of dramas, including SW's, lows, highs and the rest of it.

Get it to t72 and I'll be happy. Until then, many more dramas, swings, downgrades, upgrades etc to come.

true, but the downgrades start very early on, if there was a big downgrade at T168 i wouldn't worry as much, but the the downgrades start at T90, who knows maybe there is time for upgrades again but im not optimistic about it, i bet on the 12z we see great charts at T200 again lol

[Harve]

wow that 168 chart is amazing the low pressure system coming to a halt as it hits the bitterly cold continental air which would be undercutting it.

The result a very severe blizzard with drifting in the strong Southerly winds

Are we even looking at the same model?

[PolarWarsaw]

I've come to the mindset now where as far as I'm concerned, downgrades aren't downgrades. They are just the 'expected norms' living in this place, that is the sad reality of it.

Inside t48-72 then okay. But iv not understood all the excitement this week, ahead of certain dramas and disappointments as we move closer to an event.

[GoonerGregg77]

Plenty of time for upgrades people. The models have chopped and changed for over 2 weeks now, not going to change.

From what I can see, the jet is going to be throwing a lot of energy through next week from the North-North East. There is across the board agreement on that. As regards to the Atlantic bulldozing across us, I can't see it apart from the odd *Close* excursion. If and and when this may happen, it will produce a battleground scenario come the next weekend I'd suspect.

The air associated next week is as I have said already, it's going to be very frigid cold air, and the North Sea is relatively warm. This screams potential for big snowfalls for certain lucky areas.

We have it seems been delayed in the form of a *Beast from the East*, BUT, we will still have a NNE tilt to the air from which it is coming from for most of next week (With Snow), and it's freeezing where it is coming from. I totally understand people's worry, people's frustration, because we have been dealt some beauty charts over the last few days, but honestly, we can not expect them to be bang on right! Our weather, our patterns, trends etc will change a lot because this is Britain, an Island between a massive piece of land to our east called mainland Europe and the deep blue sea in the Atlantic out in the west.

I see a Easterly maybe developing for a short period, against the jet mind for a few days after the end of next week, and it will bring a lot of very cold and snowy weather before some calm, and again very cold weather starts to make inroads bringing hard frosts, and potential ice days in the lead up to Xmas.

Sounds good to me anyway.

Edited December 7, 2012 by GoonerGregg77

[Mucka]

Anyone crying into their cereal this morning check out p4 from GFS ensembles, that will cheer you and give you a foretaste of tonight's pub run! - maybe

Edited December 7, 2012 by Mucka

[Jezzer]

Thank you Ian, always appreciate your input. Another day of model watching ahead, twists and turns await I'm sure.

[Snowy Easterlies]

Anyone crying into their cereal this morning check out p4 from GFS ensembles, that will cheer you and give you a foretaste of tonight's pub run! - maybe

control run looks nice too, how many bites of the cherry do we need ?

Edited December 7, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Snowy Easterlies]

East of England

Forecast Summary

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday

Becoming cloudy and windy with patchy rain during Sunday. Monday and Tuesday, becoming very cold with bright spells, but also with sleet or snow showers, some heavy, leading to accumulations.

update from the met office, is this based on yesterdays UKMO or this mornings ?

Edited December 7, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[SnOwFeSt]

Yes, a disappointing run this morning. Heights lower much more over Greenland, preventing any link up of the Atlantic and Scandinavia heights. Shortwaves also get in the way of the really cold are moving westwards, and the flow is much slacker, meaning that convection will probably remain near to coasts.

Still, plenty of time for upgrades! And it's still gonna be blooming cold regardless of the final outcome!

[bobbydog]

Just perusing some bothersome-looking new output from MOGREPS-15 & UK4 (extended) snow & temperature progs by Tuesday-Wednesday. Suffice to say that with up to 5-10cm snow accumulation shown for fair swathe of E/SE areas into Tuesday, some on the forum will find it a matter of excitement. Commuters wouldn't... V widespread overnight mins -2 and below. Frigid. Shortwave running S Tuesday causing some trouble, we reckon.. at this range at least.

hi ian, does this still stand?

[If Wishes made Weather]

I wonder, I wonder. The GFS ensemble mean is showing around the 20th Dec something of a reload. No detail, but there is a general east to west pattern. This does seem to tie in with GP's thoughts earlier in the thread yesterday, and, with an appropriate time-lag is showing up after the SSW that we are now seeing? Possibly there is a trend to watch for here.

[If Wishes made Weather]

In fact, edt to the above post, it shows a large HP cell moving from scandi to Greeland which fits very nicely with the tenor of the strat and long term watchers. Watch it on the n.hemishpere card on meteociel.fr

[Snowy Easterlies]

i can't decide whether the ECM is a downgrade or upgrade compared to yesterday's run, however its better than GFS up to T168 as blocking is stronger

[PolarWarsaw]

yeah true and what are the chances of another shortwave popping up when the T168 chart gets to T96 ?

Around 99.9%.

A decent outlook just about. We need to get rid of all these SW's that keep popping up.

[IDO]

The ensembles:

http://modeles.meteo...ndres&runpara=0

The op is close to the mean and if anything it is not till the end of FI it comes out of the colder clusterings. The mean continues to warm up and is close to 0c 850s at the end. The members are beginning to edge towards the average.

The op is barely an easterly now, a few days ago it was a short wave in the Baltic Sea that restricted the cold flow, now its a closer sw threatening to cut it before it reaches the UK. As bad as the op run is, for the UK it looks very plausible. It does show that the Atlantic and cold have a fight around next weekend and there is a couple of snow events currently showing. But experience tells me that once the westerly's get going this will be a very transient snow to rain event (but you never know). At T240 GFS mean:

http://modeles.meteo...-21-1-240.png?0

Strong support for Atlantic influence over the UK.

All can change but with the trend as we near the reliable going the other way it is very disappointing. At the end of FI:

http://cdn.nwstatic....384/npsh500.png

That isn't going anywhere quick (obvious caveats apply).

The week 2 mean surface temps suggest it remains cool for most:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

The EC32 day'r will be interesting. ECM at T192 following synoptically GFS with Atlantic attack by next weekend. By T216 a knockout win for the Atlantic with a transient snow event. This sw around Norway will be better progged in the next 24 hours and we can only hope that it isn't as bad as it is currently showing.

Edited December 7, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...