Model Output Discussion - 18z - 6th December onward

[DanDorsetUK]

High pressure? Removed the easterly in its entirety? Are we looking at the same run?

Yes but this is very light winds here there wont be much pushing into the UK

[Alex95]

NNE'ly becomes an easterly by Wednesday. EASILY 6"+ in the North East from that over the course of the first half of the week. The eastern third of the country should be pasted by Wednesday night I'd have though if that came off, with surprise snowfalls in some other places?

[SMU]

Where is the SW to the SW on that chart ?

S

[Wilxy]

Low is definatly trying to undercut could end up a very snowy run potentially.

[TEITS]

Where is the SW to the SW on that chart ?

Surprised you can't see it, so i've highlighted it for you.

[cyclonic happiness]

It a fantastic set-up still, we have cold upper entering the UK from Monday on wards and they are plenty cold enough for the whole country, it won't be dry because the low pressure will be throwing out troughs and fronts and all sorts but we won't know where until a few hours before.

And the closer that low gets to us, the more chances of snow we'll get.

FI is probably about at sunday atm because of the amount of changes we still keep seeing.

All in all, I think everyone should be highly excited about today's model runs as they stand, and you can look for breakdowns when there's snow on the ground, not until.

Come on everyone, can't you see it?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

All we are seeing are the models jumping the gun and shifting blocking towards Greenland and not really knowing the full route to get there yet. It all looks good and 18z is very good for cold

The SW highlighted by big Steve and Dave [TEITS] is what I believe FERGIE is on about.....looking very interesting

BFTP

Edited December 6, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Allseasons-Si]

That shortwave sw of the BI looks like undercutting to me,that will draw in a stronger easterly.

[weatherguy]

Yes but this is very light winds here there wont be much pushing into the UK

Irrelevant - all we're looking for is the general pattern at this stage, not snow potential. What that chart shows is -8C uppers over much of the UK (let's not be spoilt, this is excellent!), coming from a North Easterly direction, with an easterly element not too far away.

Edited December 6, 2012 by weatherguy

[bobbydog]

With an already slack easterly becoming slacker of course it may make a difference. Even less wintry outbreaks from eastern areas. Hopefully just a delay not a retreat.

of course, it would be disappointing to see a gradual downgrade at this stage, however, my less than subtle sarcasm was just to highlight that, although i love the weather and especially snow (i'm up there with the primary school kids with my sense of excitement when it comes!) there are more important things in life to worry about. ironically, a huge dumping of snow would be a welcome distraction from the stresses i have in my life now. in fact, if the weather is the the most stressful thing in anyones life at the moment, i envy them. they should take a step back and realise how lucky they really are.

[Nick F]

Running the sequence on meteociel to t+168 I can see the H500 cold pool spread west across NW Europe as the block grows to the north, which is good enough for me.

[Wilxy]

Heights stronger towards scandi on the 18z at 174h

[Catacol]

The change today in the model output in the extended range t144 + could very well be down to

the models rushing in with the transfer of the vortex back over to Siberia dropping the heights

over the Arctic to quickly. In the same way they rush in when there is a signal for HLB's if so

I would soon expect the runs to show much better height retention to the north of the UK around

Iceland, Scandinavia, Svalbard region.

I agree. Regular watchers know that the models are too progressive with the atlantic. Remember the low pressure earlier this week that everyone got so annoyed about when it was modelled to barrel through and bring back "mild"? What's ACTUALLY happened? It arrived much more slowly, has become relatively stagnant and the north and east have had a few days of snow on and off.

Whether we get a siberian easterly or just a cyclonic slow draw off of Scandy one thing is sure - the atlantic will not move in so fast and powerfully as the ops have it. This easterly was initally modelled to arrive tomorrow when ECM first picked it up - it (or something close to an easterly) will actually arrive a week later. The breakdown will be pushed back and pushed back... and in the meantime short term developments will bring all sorts of fun and games.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

If trends are what we should be looking for in FI then we all should be happy with this run. Up to 5 days away we are under very cold uppers with the possiblity of snow showers coming in from the North sea. As many on here have said predicting snow is impossible up to a day or so out so lets not worry about this yet. We are still looking at a cold spell next week. Lets not worry about the details for 7 days away.

[chionomaniac]

The netweather rubbish bin is getting full. Please think before posting or accept that you are typing for nothing...........

[Optimus Prime]

The 18z has now removed the Easterly in its entirety

That's 24 hours from Armageddon to high pressure dry and frosty

Some going even by 90's standards lol

Plenty of energy being dragged in from the North sea due to convection;

Edited December 6, 2012 by Optimus Prime

[January Snowstorm]

Getting much better at 156hrs

Very fragile before that though with SW's liable to pop up all over the place

This easterly could be epic or vanish overnight and I would say 50/50 is a fair call

[PubliusEnigma]

Thats the best GFS frame all day

[Allseasons-Si]

Is that part of the pv in siberia showing allready at 189hrs,it wasn't there on the 12z.

[danm]

Getting much better at 156hrs

Very fragile before that though with SW's liable to pop up all over the place

This easterly could be epic or vanish overnight and I would say 50/50 is a fair call

50/50 because of one GFS 18z OP run? I beg to differ. 50/50 would be successive OP runs and a swing in the ensembles. Please think before you post misleading and factually inaccurate comments.

In any case, this 18z run is still good.

[Ice Day]

It a fantastic set-up still, we have cold upper entering the UK from Monday on wards and they are plenty cold enough for the whole country, it won't be dry because the low pressure will be throwing out troughs and fronts and all sorts but we won't know where until a few hours before.

And the closer that low gets to us, the more chances of snow we'll get.

FI is probably about at sunday atm because of the amount of changes we still keep seeing.

All in all, I think everyone should be highly excited about today's model runs as they stand, and you can look for breakdowns when there's snow on the ground, not until.

Come on everyone, can't you see it?

Great summing up. The models are totally consistent with recent cold spells (2009, 2010), they flip flop about, upgrade and downgrade. As the more learned posters have said before, it's all about the trends; and the trends are extremely good!

[cyclonic happiness]

Getting much better at 156hrs

Very fragile before that though with SW's liable to pop up all over the place

This easterly could be epic or vanish overnight and I would say 50/50 is a fair call

Well if it can go from being full blown 'all the way from Mongolia to Canada almost' to 'only just about getting to the UK's shores' easterly, then I think something in the middle would be reasonable?

But if all the big guns and those in the know are all erring on the side of a cold outlook, maybe the easterly will be a good one as opposed to a damp squib, either way we are gonna be cold and snowy with the models as they stand

Edited December 6, 2012 by cyclonic happiness

[Ian Brown]

Block is in a slightly better position to withstand an Atlantic attack, surely you would think the energy would go under. I'm sure it will !

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-252.png?18

Deep low gone. remove the E bias by 2/300 miles & that is one stella chart!

The GFS 12z dartboard low is gone- vortex ushering into russia ( fragment)

& all is well again on the lead up to xmas

S

Shades of December 78

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012120618/gfsnh-0-312.png?18

Edited December 6, 2012 by Steve Murr

[ITSY]

This is the sort of thing people having been talking about. Easterly;snowy breakdown; reload/retrogression to Greenland: