Model Output Discussion - 18z - 6th December onward

[danm]

up to 5-10cm snow accumulation shown for fair swathe of E/SE areas into Tuesday,

Now, I like the sound of that! I'm also a commuter though and the brief cm of snow we got on Wednesday morning screwed the trains up (ridiculous!), but it's something i'm willing to put up with.

[fergieweather]

Now, I like the sound of that! I'm also a commuter though and the brief cm of snow we got on Wednesday morning screwed the trains up (ridiculous!), but it's something i'm willing to put up with.

Well, you may well find something similar to greet you into rush-hour tomorrow am too

[AWD]

18z Ensembles look better IMO;

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=485&y=10

Control run cold throughout.

[Captain Shortwave]

Thanks for the update Ian, now I can start to get excited about this upcoming cold spell. No worries if it weakens/backs off. Had snow where i am a couple of days now and maybe some tomorrow morning. This winter already tops last years

Edited December 7, 2012 by Matt Powell

[Isolated Frost]

Well, you may well find something similar to greet you into rush-hour tomorrow am too

I love you!

Anyway, I've been away for a few days and came back to some cracking charts... and people talking about D10 breakdowns already?! Argh! FAXes very supportive of snow shrs penetrating well inland from the E/NE Monday onwards and as Ian notes, some very cold temperatures. Incredible synoptics, absolutely incredible synoptics and maybe we should sit back and appreciate them for a moment?

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z Ensembles look better IMO;

http://www.meteociel...xt=1&x=485&y=10

Control run cold throughout.

Slight improvement in those from the 12z, yes

[nick sussex]

Now, I like the sound of that! I'm also a commuter though and the brief cm of snow we got on Wednesday morning screwed the trains up (ridiculous!), but it's something i'm willing to put up with.

Thats the spirit Dan!

As I've often said tired of snow, tired of life, or tired of snow you know you're getting old and grumpy and think of those sensible things like how do I get into work or will there be drama rather than yipeeee its snowing!

I think I've managed to internalize this into keep loving snow stay young!

Anyway I digress, overall some good snow prospects coming with the fine detail still yet to be resolved.

[The watcher]

18z Ensembles look better IMO;

http://www.meteociel...xt=1&x=485&y=10

Control run cold throughout.

They do, 18z run doesn't tell the true story as it is on the milder side of the ensemble mean (not by much though and mainly in FI).

Mean at -5c 850 throughout.

Cold Seekers FI currently at the 7/8 day period with detailed FI in around 36 hours.

[chionomaniac]

18z Ensembles look better IMO;

http://www.meteociel...xt=1&x=485&y=10

Control run cold throughout.

When looking at this - one has to ask whose scales are set correctly?

Meteociel looks a lot lower than Wetter or netweather.

Edited December 7, 2012 by chionomaniac

[fergieweather]

A key driver by next Tuesday will be vorticity pulses aloft running S in the flow, with resultant threat of more organised snow shower activity / consolidation and a westward extension of these into wider parts of southern UK. EC's shortwave on Tuesday, for example, is a case in point albeit runs-through earlier compared to UKMO suite, which heightens the threat of snow more markedly later Tuesday.

[swilliam]

Looking at the GEFS is seems pretty solid till the 13th then after the 16th anything could happen

Here in N Sweden (lulea) no problems. -14C and light snow with breeze. Major snow in Stockholm yesterday due to heavy snow causing problems geting here

Edited December 7, 2012 by swilliam

[Cheshire Freeze]

When looking at this - one has to ask whose scales are set correctly?

Meteociel looks a lot lower than Wetter or netweather.

Just checked, they're not for the UK.....

AWD what's the point in misleading us like that?

Edited December 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[chionomaniac]

Just checked, they're not for the UK.....

Then where is that for - do you know, cc?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Then where is that for - do you know, cc?

53.8 N 5.4 E so somewhere just across the southern North Sea?

EDIT: just checked google earth......takes me to just off the north coast of the Netherlands.

Edited December 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[chionomaniac]

53.8 N 5.4 E so somewhere just across the southern North Sea?

Misleading to say the least!

AWD please state where you are posting ensembles from in the future, thanks.

[PolarWarsaw]

Well, you may well find something similar to greet you into rush-hour tomorrow am too

Ian would it be correct to say that there's a chance of a dusting for most of central, southern and eastern areas to wake up to for the morning?

[Rob K]

Just checked, they're not for the UK.....

AWD what's the point in misleading us like that?

53.8N, 5.4E is just off the coast of the Friesian Islands in the North Sea...

Ian would it be correct to say that there's a chance of a dusting for most of central, southern and eastern areas to wake up to for the morning?

Surely not a hope. It's been lashing down with cold rain for ages and everywhere is soaking.

[Mark Neal.]

A key driver by next Tuesday will be vorticity pulses aloft running S in the flow, with resultant threat of more organised snow shower activity / consolidation and a westward extension of these into wider parts of southern UK. EC's shortwave on Tuesday, for example, is a case in point albeit runs-through earlier compared to UKMO suite, which heightens the threat of snow more markedly later Tuesday.

That seems more encouraging for more central zones seeing snow showers or a spell of snow. Would be nice from my point of view to see the snow pushing quite far inland. Interesting to say the least though.

[Krakatoa01]

Can I just say you are the biggest success story to this forum this winter in my eyes, having the i input from the uk met on this board is invaluable and a massive asset not only to us but to the met office as the reputation of the organisation I think has risen in many posters eyes by sharing the information in a bigger public domain

Many thanks for the time you've put into your posts on here. Its greatly appreciated

A key driver by next Tuesday will be vorticity pulses aloft running S in the flow, with resultant threat of more organised snow shower activity / consolidation and a westward extension of these into wider parts of southern UK. EC's shortwave on Tuesday, for example, is a case in point albeit runs-through earlier compared to UKMO suite, which heightens the threat of snow more markedly later Tuesday.

[Snowy Easterlies]

do i laugh, or do i cry, GFS is a big downgrade in the short term

[Mucka]

The natives will be restless this morning as they thumb through GFS - 1 model 1 run though. All about the shrotwave developing over Scandi.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Mucka

[PolarWarsaw]

Ah yes - we get close to t120 or less and up pops 1 of the many late dramatic spoilers - the notorious shortwave.

Is this just a 1 off or isthis the trigger to unfold the biggest let down in recent modelling history?

We'l see.

[Snowy Easterlies]

have to hope the UKMO don't follow the GFS now, the GFS reminds of the last let down a couple of weeks ago when blocking wasn't as strong as people thought and the atlantic crashed through, i wouldn't say this was only one run though the 18z started the downgrade early on

PW we were let down a couple of weeks ago remember lol

Edit it somehow stays cold though on the GFS even though blocking is blasted away

Edited December 7, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[SLEETY]

wow that 168 chart is amazing the low pressure system coming to a halt as it hits the bitterly cold continental air which would be undercutting it.

The result a very severe blizzard with drifting in the strong Southerly winds

Edited December 7, 2012 by SLEETY

[PolarWarsaw]

have to hope the UKMO don't follow the GFS now, the GFS reminds of the last let down a couple of weeks ago when blocking wasn't as strong as people thought and the atlantic crashed through, i wouldn't say this was only one run though the 18z started the downgrade early on

PW we were let down a couple of weeks ago remember lol

Edit it somehow stays cold though on the GFS even though blocking is blasted away

We were but this potential spell has been consistently showing on all models for 4/5 days now.

GFS still looks decent.