South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 7th 2012>

[Essex Chelle]

I know that, but....................

One rule fits all.

Awwww my dad getting a telling off lol he is old so let him off lol

Oh and all these years I've thought my dad was very clever predicting he weather when all along he was getting his info from here

Edited December 7, 2012 by BasVegas

[Tilly]

Sleet still here still 3c..... Yuck....

are you in Fav today Will? I havent seen any sleet today. Its absolutely peeing it down, cold and windy. I don't even want to get dressed let alone go out

[Team Jo]

Just stopped raining here, still gusty, and keeping it bone chillingly cold!

Really looking at the next 72 hours + to see how this cold potential will pan out. The patterns are good - and although the Model thread is a bit all over the place, I think the general feeling is that Next week's cold spell is game on although Snow-wise, I've just got all my cold fingers and cold toes crossed!

Hope everyone is keeping warm!

[damp patch]

Overcast Cold and Dank. Temp now up to +4c

Looking forward to next week. I'd be very suprised if we dont see some snow but regardless of how much it should certainly be seasonal and a great start to winter.

[Andrew snow hope]

Hi People, I am located in Reading and never really know if i should be on the South East pages or Central Southern. Can anyone give me some direction.

[craigore]

Its all about the uppers craig and to my mind, they will be condusive for snow, even at low levels.

EDIT: I think Nick F explained that better and I misread it but the above still applies, I think.

Thanks guys ,you have been helpful.

pouring down here temp3.4c (APPROX 2 MILS FROM NORTH SEA)

[Team Jo]

Hi People, I am located in Reading and never really know if i should be on the South East pages or Central Southern. Can anyone give me some direction.

Hi Andrew, I think there are quite a few Reading natives that look on both - so whatever you feel comfy with!

[Andrew snow hope]

Ok Great. I will do. Thank you.

[legrandefromage]

sunny and gussety - empty wheely bin races down my street

[Heisenberg]

sunny and gussety - empty wheely bin races down my street

Welcome

can you put your location in please?

[DanN]

Wind gusts just a touch over 30mph at the moment. Proving a bit tricky whilst putting the outside xmas lights up!

[Sailawaykat]

Raining and dull now....

....but on the plus side our snow boards arrived today - now we await the proper stuff....

[Floatylight]

Posters doing nowcasts can you please put your location

Like you could, maybe?

lol beat me to it gltw

[afcone]

Interesting blog from the Met Office about the BFTE:

The meteorology behind the ‘Beast from the East’

7

12

2012

The ‘Beast from the East’ – not the Grammy nominated live album of 1988 from heavy rock band Dokken – but the phrase being used to describe what looks set to be some cold and wintry conditions to the UK next week has been mentioned in many newspapers today.

But what actually is the meteorological situation and what is the outlook for next week?

Strictly speaking our weather is not expected to be coming directly from the east next week, but more from the northeast, tracking across the North Sea from Scandinavia, bringing cold north to northeastly winds to our shores. As this cold air moves over the relatively mild North Sea, the air will pick up moisture and become increasing unstable, bringing showers to eastern parts of the country as shown on the chart below.

The showers are most likely across eastern parts of Scotland and northern England on Monday, and as the week progresses they will spread increasingly further south to other parts of eastern England. At first they are likely to be a mix of rain, sleet and snow, but are expected to become increasingly wintry in nature, potentially leading to some locally significant falls of snow, especially over high ground, including the Highlands, Southern Uplands of Scotland and the hills of Northumberland and the North York Moors.

Although next week will certainly be very cold, especially compared to a brief respite from the cold conditions over the coming weekend, at the moment it is not expected to be as cold as the bitter conditions we saw back in December 2010 when temperatures fell to -21.3 deg C on 2nd December at Altnaharra in Scotland, which was the lowest December temperature recorded in the UK since 13th December 1995.

Met Office forecasters will be monitoring this developing weather situation throughout the weekend and will update forecasts and warnings. This will ensure the public has access to the latest weather forecasts that will help them prepare, plan and protect themselves from the impacts of the snow and icy conditions expected next week.

Met Office Cold Weather Alerts have been issued for the whole of England as the forecast weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients.

The latest forecasts and warnings can be found on the Met Office website, on ourmobile apps and through TV and radio broadcasts on the BBC and ITV.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/the-meteorology-behind-the-beast-from-the-east/

[Paul Sherman]

That looks very favourable for NE England and Scotland then! Not liking the look of the Flow on that UK Meto Chart above and it is this what Nick was alluding to earlier when he stated winds look more North North Easterly (As Above Map) so this means only favoured North Facing Coasts might get in on the action early next week.

If I was going to pick locations then Eastern Scotland, NE England, North York Moors, Humberside, Eastern parts of Norfolk and Suffolk and Eastern Kent look very nicely placed!

Rest of us Sunny and Cold to start the week!

Edited December 7, 2012 by Paul Sherman

[legrandefromage]

same old weather then.

[Mark Neal.]

After a wet start to the day, the sun did come out for a few hours, been replaced with some dark clouds now. Temperature upto 5c, although its 18mph, gusting 30mph, so feels anything but!

[BLUNT]

Looked at the GFS for the next week it looks cold and dry apart from the extreme East, then a breakdown from the SW with heavy rain proceeded by snow am I not seeing this right or has the GFS got this totally wrong, or have they got it right

Edited December 7, 2012 by BLUNT

[gottolovethisweather]

Awwww my dad getting a telling off lol he is old so let him off lol

Oh and all these years I've thought my dad was very clever predicting he weather when all along he was getting his info from here

No worries, but have a quiet word in his ear for us at some point, Bas. Have a word with Gaz, Bas.

[gottolovethisweather]

same old weather then.

meaning?

[gottolovethisweather]

Right, I'm going to dive in at the deep end and clutch a useful post from there to repost in here.

Wish me luck.

Once I've looked at the GFS 12z runs, I may attempt an analysis again, myself.

Edited December 7, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[tinybill]

were i work ,outside! we have been told their an eastly coming next week . plus i had a quick look at the models we could be in fore a white xmas at the moment!!!

[BLUNT]

The BBC said next week turning cold and snowy cant see that on anything anymore, think I will go back to watching it out of the window dont look to far advanced as it is a complete letdown, looks like the Atlantic sweeping in from mid week

[Dexter29]

Looked at the GFS for the next week it looks cold and dry apart from the extreme East, then a breakdown from the SW with heavy rain proceeded by snow am I not seeing this right or has the GFS got this totally wrong, or have they got it right

This is how I am seeing it too.

The chart that was posted from the met office does not look favourable for snow inland. I've seen this set up before, the showers stay hugging the coastal fringes and the rest of us stay sunny but cold. Even if troughs do form in and N'NErly flow it's still hard for them to make it inland.

If the 12z continues the dry theme for next week then I would say 'Dry' would some up next week with credibility as its in the reliable.

IMO it's pointless looking at potential breakdowns yet and who will get snow, it all depends on what angle the low would approach from the Atlantic - we could just get rain if it doesn't cut under the block enough! Only 24hrs for any real detail

[Met4Cast]

Troughs will develop in the flow and push in, the further East you are the better but to rule out anything at this stage wouldn't be wise