South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 7th 2012>

[Country Boy]

Main course looks to start on monday..bitterly cold next week ...snow or no snow

[Dexter29]

It's one run! Don't look at run one and take it, also the models can't pick up on troughs ETC until a out 6-12hrs out.. Look at the actually trends snow is impossible to for ast over 24hrs out

Amen! I'm happy with whatever comes. TBH I think we should keep the models out of this thread and leave it to them because it gets so heated and tempers start to fly. It's funny watching people loose their rag over 1 run though

Surrey,

You can't control what people discuss in here? If we want to discuss models we can. I am an amateur and believe me have no intentions getting caught up in that ridiculous Prozac thread! But I think if we just posts very brief updates of models as I done earlier than that's fine. Whether it shows good or bad. Us regionals are far more relaxed than the mod thread so you have no worries about tempers flying.

Anyway as we both say - the trend is there for snow next week so let's keep our fingers crossed and hope we see snow, Infact the fax shows a trough for us on Tuesday - all good signs!

[wchris_uk]

snow here,

2.8 temp

0.9 dew point

[Country Boy]

Posters doing nowcasts can you please put your location

[Paul Sherman]

Re the Models I never go past T120 When looking at smaller scale features, if the main 3 models are close enough then that is a definate trend, if they are not just pull it forward to T96 And rinse and repeat, I have seen Fantasy Island start as close as T48 Somtimes between ECM/GFS & UKMO.

So with this in mind the T120 Charts look broadly similar to me this morning and show the following.

Today : Rain, Sleet and Snow Clearing South Eastwards - Clear and Icy Tonight.

Sat and Sun : Maybe some freezing fog patches, plenty of winter sunshine and cold.

Mon : Plenty of Sunshine in a North Easterly breeze with some Wintry Showers turning readily to snow over time.

Into Tuesday maybe a more general area of snow or convective showers as denoted by a trough in the North Sea and a more favourable East North Easterly flow.

No point in looking upto T144 - Just my Opinion but it works for me and I dont get wound up by nonsense Posters in the Model Thread, I just read the comments and Laugh my head off!

[craigore]

Heavy snow in ramsgate ,huge flakes , now staring to stick on grass ,cars,roofs Temp 1.1c and falling

[Nick F]

I'd want to see winds veer more easterly than models suggest to get a TSS on Tuesday, atm winds are progged NNE'erly - which suggests any showers hugging the North Sea coast. Need to see them veer to a ENE direction. Plenty of time to get the flow more favourable, with the low sinking a little more over Germany/Denmark than currently suggested.

[craigore]

Edit .. Raining again now

[Dexter29]

I'd want to see winds veer more easterly than models suggest to get a TSS on Tuesday, atm winds are progged NNE'erly - which suggests any showers hugging the North Sea coast. Need to see them veer to a ENE direction. Plenty of time to get the flow more favourable, with the low sinking a little more over Germany/Denmark than currently suggested.

Yes this is what I was saying in my post earlier. Latest charts showing snow being restricted to coastal areas if no troughs form.

[Marie]

Even Backtrack has given up on an easterly,his status reads ,he cant see anything worthwhile coming from the east now.Backtrack is a very good poster normally,is he right? could anyone with more experience help on this one?

[Dexter29]

Even Backtrack has given up on an easterly,his status reads ,he cant see anything worthwhile coming from the east now.Backtrack is a very good poster normally,is he right? could anyone with more experience help on this one?

I think because the last two GFS runs have canceled any easterly it's kind of given the more reliable members itchy feet. If the 12z continues in the same vain then expect more ups and downs.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Dexter29

[Nick F]

Even Backtrack has given up on an easterly,his status reads ,he cant see anything worthwhile coming from the east now.Backtrack is a very good poster normally,is he right? could anyone with more experience help on this one?

Wouldn't take any notice of such a comment TBH - the comment strikes of immaturity. OK we are not looking at a deep cold easterly, but it will turn colder from the NE on Monday, and any precipitation that does move inland will likely fall as snow next week, but there's still some uncertainty if there'll be much precp away from eastern coasts. Then of course there is a threat of an Altantic vs cold block battle later in the week - which could bring lots of snow to our region if the battle lines are drawn our way.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Nick F

[craigore]

sorry doesnt work like that!! you get the cold lovers in one corner with all there cold t-shirts " Beasts from the East!! " and the mild lovers " Atlantic always dominates! " And of course we are in the middle... strange thing is as soon as you see a name chatting on that forum you know you dont have to read what he/she is saying because you know that he/she is a mild ramper or a cold ramper.. and that is why i will now not go into that forum anymore until this cold spell is over. Im fed up with the mild/cold rampers in there!!.

So true , our hopes have been dashed many times over many years..im sticking to 3/5 days ,and no frther.

[suffolkboy_]

Temperatures rocketing now. From heavy snow and tempertures at 0.1C just over an hour ago, to rain and a temperature of 2.5C here now...all that lovely dusting of snow washed away.

A lot of rain fallen over the past 12 hours!

[craigore]

Wouldn't take any notice of such a comment TBH - the comment strikes of immaturity. OK we are not looking at a deep cold easterly, but it will turn colder from the NE on Monday, and any precipitation that does move inland will likely fall as snow next week, but there's still some uncertainty if there'll be much precp away from eastern coasts. Then of course there is a threat of an Altantic vs cold block battle later in the week - which could bring lots of snow to our region if the battle lines are drawn our way.

Notice you said INLAND, does that imply here on the east coast any ppn will fall as rain if best sleet??

If so in the space of 2 days ive gone from being buried in snow to a wet squib..

[Pixel]

looks to me like there may be a south westerly movement later from the system in the north sea - may get some showers of the white kind later when the temps drop again.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

[gottolovethisweather]

Posters doing nowcasts can you please put your location

Like you could, maybe?

[abovefreezing]

Like you could, maybe?

Think the clue might be in his user name: clactongaz..?

Edited December 7, 2012 by abovefreezing

[Nick F]

Notice you said INLAND, does that imply here on the east coast any ppn will fall as rain if best sleet??

If so in the space of 2 days ive gone from being buried in snow to a wet squib..

Possibly, given the North Sea is still relatively warm compared to, say, Feb. But if precip is heavier enough, like today, then snow will reach the surface along coasts - so can't rule out snow on the east coast - whether it'll settle is not worth saying yes or no either!

[gottolovethisweather]

Even Backtrack has given up on an easterly,his status reads ,he cant see anything worthwhile coming from the east now.Backtrack is a very good poster normally,is he right? could anyone with more experience help on this one?

Don't be fooled Marie.

That was a IMBY post for sure.

He is a clever chap, but unfortunately a few posters don't like seeing others getting snow in their neighbourhood, whereas my disposition is to be happy for others who are getting their share of the fun.

Think the clue might be in his user name: clactongaz..?

I know that, but....................

One rule fits all.

[gottolovethisweather]

Notice you said INLAND, does that imply here on the east coast any ppn will fall as rain if best sleet??

If so in the space of 2 days ive gone from being buried in snow to a wet squib..

Its all about the uppers craig and to my mind, they will be condusive for snow, even at low levels.

EDIT: I think Nick F explained that better and I misread it but the above still applies, I think.

Edited December 7, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Dean E]

From the models, I can see a battle ground scenario maybe on the cards towards the end of next week. Especially for the SW...

This type of scenario is high risk but could be very rewarding to any area. I believe the cold will hang on in our region as the continent will be very cold at that point and we all know how hard a could block Is to shift. Get a channel low that taps into that cold air and we could have a snowy outlook on our hands.

Interesting times to come!

SM

[WillinGlossop]

Sleet still here still 3c..... Yuck....

[Dexter29]

This is from Steve Murr: the most sensible post I've read on the MOD thread over the past couple of days. Steve I hope you don't mind the nature of re posting this. I'm sure we would all appreciate the info.

Ive actually got minimal commentary today-

I think pretty much everyone has been slightly caught out by last minute changes in the mid term- the short term is very much nailed now & because of that we will get cold air from the NE to start with, the depth & extent of this cold is still variable - however values of -7c Uppers seem a fairly accurate broadbrush filtering in.

& with that comes the prospect of sleet & snow - especially in the NE-

In the mid term that change in energy coming south that ian has pointed out does effect the building of our block to the NE-

Does it scupper everything- well no, however does take the edge of the scenario again.

Whats probably clear is that I think we do still get very cold at the surface, but lose the instability across the North sea as there is no convection ( or minimal amounts)

So we are now looking to the allignment of the atlantic attack.- thus far this 'seems' to favour arrival in the SW corner with a snow event for the central & northern belt.-

THis will fluctuate with runs - it could move more favourably for the SE or more north favouring the North & scotland.

Whats clearly demonstrated is that no matter what model people follow ALL of them have flaws that cannot resolve the macro scale shortwaves that develop in the flow.-

We have seen the GFS Ensemble Mean touted, The NAEFS Mean touted, ECM 32 day touted, the ECM day 6-10 touted- whilst they give you the estimated longwave pattern the fact the shortwave pattern can come along at 96 hours & skew them towards something not favourable renders them useless.

Just the same as the polar vortex dropping into russia & the stratospheric modelling in 10-16 days time.- broadbrush features that may or may not land as they are models.

So what do have today, we have gone from 10-10 ECM charts to probably 6/10 charts that to the eye are now a big downgrade ( can we put this word in the swear filter) - when in reality we are just moving to the correct solution..-

THese 6/10 charts whilst not showing the big easterlies like 1987, & so on- still have the HIGH POTENTIAL to deliver significant snow for thr Uk in the day 7-10 range & after all thats what 'most' of us want.

NO IMBY posting here- its a lottery when the snowbelt will turn up- as it stands NI is as much in the firing line as the SE of england...

S

[Marie]

Blue sky and a balmy 5.6c.Lovely day out there now.Bring on the snow lol