Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Richie V]

Well after the huge let down which was the 06z, lets hope the twelve delivers another huge lump of dissapointment for coldies. Suits me good as im a zonal type anyway. News 24 weather was a wet dream for me eariler as they now seem keen on the idea of a dartboard vortex with a super powerful shortwave placed over the southern uplands come weeks end.

[cfallon]

Every year is the same on here, one week all singing and dancing! The next it's doom and gloom and the the classic line winter is over! Makes me laugh, there will be real cold spells there will be slightly milder spells, there will be snow days, there will be rainy days! Snowmagedon rarely but great when it happens! You don't need charts to evidence this

[snow freak]

Blimey, should i supply the rope and a chair??? LOL

Yes please!!

[stainesbloke]

Wonder what some people on here would do if something seriously bad happened to them? Week 2 of winter and its all over already....yeah right, grow up! It obviously never snows in Jan-Feb lol...

[snow freak]

knowing the british weather, we'll get snow in April, by which time it's too late and is wet snow which melts by midday. We haven't even got high enough mountains that guarantee snow throughout the winter. Even that would be some consolation then at least we could go there for guaranteed snow.

[Timmytour]

Winter's going on a

Summer Holiday

looks like the musical note links don't work!

Edited December 10, 2012 by Timmytour

[skyblusam]

Stuff the models im getting myself some snow http://www.maplin.co.uk/snow-machine-226403?c=maplin&utm_source=gcs&utm_medium=gcs_search&utm_campaign=N07GH&utm_content=Smoke%2C+Bubbles+%26+Snow?C=AffilWin47868&clickref=298597705 blizzard imby

[Fred Sykes]

"Best From the East" lol - they think it's all over...............it is now!

I'm dreaming of a Mild Christmas, just like the ones i've always known. Where the Trees are blowing and the rain is flowing like childrens tear drops from the sky, the sky

Bah Humbug

[Michael Winston]

Surely Friday 14th?

Cordially yours,

Mike.

[Timmytour]

Surely Friday 14th?

Cordially yours,

Mike.

There is a hint of Friday 13th about that chart though!

[Timmytour]

Can't help thinking that we are going to get a cold and snowy spell all this week and into next week, but the models are not showing it becasue they've been hacked by UKUNCOLD

Edited December 10, 2012 by Timmytour

[mackerel sky]

Notice that most of the media, particularly the tabloids have been using the term "beast from the east" even today (picture in the Mirror looked suspiciously like a GFS chart from here). Well alas we know the beast has been tamed this time. But who coined the term originally? On here, first time I heard it used was by TETIS, in the early days of the forum.

[Great Plum]

I think Brian from the 'other site' was quoted in one of the red tops the other day using the term and I think it spread from there...

[Gavin Hannah]

Can't help thinking that we are going to get a cold and snowy spell all this week and into next week, but the models are not showing it becasue they've been hacked by UKUNCOLD

I like your positive thinking, and I'm trying to remain as positive as I was last night.. but after that 12z....

[Uncle_Barty]

I like your positive thinking, and I'm trying to remain as positive as I was last night.. but after that 12z....

Have to say that those saying there will be a cold spell this/next week (after midweek this week, that is) are little more than hopecasting, rather.

Models seem set on Atlantic weather after midweek and in the absence of anything different showing in the models, I have to say that looks to be the form horse.

I saw a chart on the main MO page pointing towards a belt of positive HP amomalies from Azores stretching across central/southern Europe. (METO Glosea4), don't know what it is like in the past and of course is probably little better than guesswork, but hope it comes off.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Jim_AFCB

[SteveB]

I feel a bit deflated, it was looing all so promising, but some how we managed to get dross from a pefect outlook.

Could really do with an expert taking stock of the situation & letting us all know what went wrong & why, and how things look going forward.

I suppose thing could equally change back to a favourable cold weather as quickly as it changed to mild dross.

Moan over.......... for now.

[winterfreak]

I can't help but chuckle sometimes I've always questioned model output because, as far as I can see, you'd have as much luck reading tea leaves to forecast the weather. We've gone from snow and sub zero temps to potential zonal dross in a few short days. Funny really......

[Dean E]

I can't help but chuckle sometimes I've always questioned model output because, as far as I can see, you'd have as much luck reading tea leaves to forecast the weather. We've gone from snow and sub zero temps to potential zonal dross in a few short days. Funny really......

Believe me, after years of reading models, the amount of times this has happened is incredible... Its what models do sadly and if one ingredient goes missing, everything goes crazy.

Its funny when people latch onto every run and think, YES ITS GOING TO GET COLD!!! Then it goes back to Atlantic driven and then they say I KNEW IT WAS GOING THAT WAY.

The funny ways of the model output thread

SM

[mcweather]

Believe me, after years of reading models, the amount of times this has happened is incredible... Its what models do sadly and if one ingredient goes missing, everything goes crazy.

Its funny when people latch onto every run and think, YES ITS GOING TO GET COLD!!! Then it goes back to Atlantic driven and then they say I KNEW IT WAS GOING THAT WAY.

The funny ways of the model output thread

SM

The models are at best trend spotters and nothing more . Last week the trend was for cold this week the trend is for milder its as simple as that.

I'm as guilty as anyone else at getting caught up in the euphoria of a classic run but bitter experience over many years has taught me that the models do not control the weather.

The weather will do what it does and sometimes the models will be spot on but very rarely for more than 5 days ahead. Anything beyond about 120/144 really is just a possibilty and no more than that. Very very very rarely they will pick up so strongly on a trend like late Nov and Dec 2010 and it will come off.

So until you see that screaming easterly at 120 with no shortwaves then its best to assume it won't be happening.

Edited December 10, 2012 by mcweather

[AGAL]

Goodness so much doom and gloom. Hey it's cold at the moment and has been really since the end of autumn, had two falls of snow already this winter, small amounts but lovely to see all the same.. How can anyone be sure beyond 5-7 days ( general pattern only), how this winter pans out. The bbc monthly forecast issued today has reasonable confidence in a return to below/ slightly below temperatures prior to Christmas and turning milder again by the new year. Beyond that is anyone's guess surely as shown by the huge flip flopping of the models over the last week??

Don't want to be rude but of course many of us are frankly pi&*ed off. The models up until last Friday were showing a massive lottery win , then they decided the numbers were wrong. The thought of another wet mild Christmas fills me with gloom. Its perfectly understanable that some of us are down we had it all to look forward to. You'll see how exciting the nuances of rain and wind are when you see the current 602 user level seen below drop like a stone. It is bad and although you might mean well, telling me it isn't bad is even more irritating. Sorry mods but I had to say it . So let me wallow in self pity.

Move me to the suicide thread as I'm busy slashing my wrist at the moment and please don't call the samaritans or an ambulance.

[Sraigcaife]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Think you need tae get a grip mate !! As I mentioned in the regionals, we live on a temperate island. Not Siberia or northern Canada. Our weather will always up and down. Keeps life interesting I think, too much of the same weather gets boring anyway.

Should come up here, we've plenty snow up the ski resorts I'm sure you'd be pleased with !!

[Weather-history]

Bit of a contrast this morning compared to exactly 18 years ago today. A minimum of 15C at Tynemouth?!

[Aaron]

Maximum of 14.8C in December 1994.. to be honest, I'd like to see a temperature that mild again, but once would be enough.

Still doesn't beat what appears to be the Leeds December record of 15.3C.

Edited December 11, 2012 by Aaron

[Bradowl]

Now that some models are showing mild up to middle of January I'll get sledge waxed.

Blizzards before end of December is guaranteed.

[SnowObsessor90]

If the current GFS FI is on to anything with the PV attempting to regain a foothold in and around Greenland then the only I conclusion I can come to is that the weather gods hate us.There can't be any other plausible explanation.