Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Yozzer]

Ian Brown - with apologies to The Stranglers....

Ian Brown he likes the sun

Plays the ECM down if cold it runs

Throughout the night

Looking for a fight

Eye In The Sky versus Ian Brown

Every time just like the last

Having a go at Blast from the Past

To distant lands

Takes both his hands

Keeps Mushy Man warm, that's Ian Brown

Ian Brown, says WTF in jest

Through the models he's looking for west is best

From far away

Stays for a day

Never cold full blown, with Ian Brown

Always a frown

With Ian Brown

Always a frown

With Ian Brown

[Jezzer]

Another 05 Dec style ECMWF run, yes most of the snow for the SE but north should see some, GFS is concerning but even that gives snow for monday then mild into FI now, much improves on 06Z

Is this a better run than the epic December one?

[cfallon]

Matt Hugo twitter

The 12z ECM is an absolute snow-fest of a run! Jeez if that verifies it maintains the cold but a major risk of snow with it.

7:03pm - 10 Jan 13

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Is this a better run than the epic December one?

I think so, probably wont happen, need full model agreement, with SSW etc should have more chance of at least a flake of snow

[weather is fun]

Only downside i see is northern and western parts missing out on the snow fun

[Gord]

Not posted about the models in a while, can't really get my head around them. Reading through the model thread, there is the odd post that confuses me (not saying they're rubbish or wrong, they just go against other comments). Same happens in the respective threads on other forums. There does seem to be an element of doubt around the internet...

I think the answer is to just kick back, keep watching and see what happens. I'm nowhere near experienced or knowledgable enough to form my own opinion about weather models. From what I can see, the chance of a decent cold spell looks really very good. Looking forward to the next few days and following it all as it happens!

[Summer Sun]

More tweets

Matt Hugo

The 12z ECM is an absolute snow-fest of a run! Jeez if that verifies it maintains the cold but a major risk of snow with it.

Still a lot of model divergence & the extreme nature of the 12z ECM almost makes it unlikely but ENS will be interesting

[UV-RAY]

I'm hoping all of the UK sees some snow out of this set up, at the moment it does look like those from the Midlands southwards will be the lucky ones as well as the East. Off course things do change at short notice so I'll be pinning my hopes on that for now.

[Dampdorset82]

Im from the south coast (dorset) and annoyingly the charts just show rain rain wet bloody rain!!!ahhhhhhhhhhhh

[Sara1988]

keep reading that we are on the cusp of something special!......oh where for....mainly the south! :(

[cyclonic happiness]

keep reading that we are on the cusp of something special!......oh where for....mainly the south!

Don't worry, it'll go pear shaped at the last minute as per :-P

[cerneman]

Im from the south coast (dorset) and annoyingly the charts just show rain rain wet bloody rain!!!ahhhhhhhhhhhh

Rain just a watered down form of snow

[Sara1988]

Rain just a watered down form of snow

yeah and i have heard its so much more fun building rainmen

[Summer Sun]

More from Twitter

Matt Hugo

Details aside 31 of the 51 EC ensemble members show a synoptic pattern similar to that of the midday ECMWF for next week = cold n wintry.

Keeping a close eye on this and I think, at the mo, that Monday will be the first real risk of any snow for NW Eng.

12Z ECM model not an outlier and pretty might 'right down the middle' of the ensembles.

ECM ENS mean supports the synoptic pattern of the midday run with southerly tracking lows or 'slider lows' next week. Cold n wintry outcome.

[Ali1977]

Going to be bad on here if GFS downgrades the colds longevity. Lets hope it doesn't.

[P-M]

Going to be bad on here if GFS downgrades the colds longevity. Lets hope it doesn't.

Why? Can you add an explaination to that? Genuine question by the way?

[Ali1977]

Sorry, I mean some people will be dissapointed, I think another upgrade is expected by many!

[bobbydog]

lets hope the ECM is right....

[chionomaniac]

I have a feeling this is goimng to be a good run - looking great so far.(T+90)

Edited January 10, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Cleeve Hill]

lets hope the ECM is right....

Is that Ian browns house?

[Tony Beets]

Feel like Kelly Brooke, Michelle kegan and Katy perry have all just walked in to my bedroom!! Now to get the party started!!! Wahoooo!!

[Optimus Prime]

"GFS well into low resolution with that one, I am sure that it's a bit overdone, as 968mb with hot to the southwest and very cold surroundings would be very very severe. That's not something you want, we as a country cannot deal with that. Some very heavy snow fall, probably blizzards and drifting snow in London, with 32 mph winds, with gusting in the region of 50/60mph would kill a lot of people. I for one hope this chart does not verify...."

Honorable mention to Robert Garrett for the biggest winter cold ramp I have ever read. I salute you sir.

[Frosty_wsm]

So how do all those posters who were being so smug about the gfs and it's mild outlook being correct feel now, you all have egg on your faces.

Actually come to think of it they've all been very quiet and not been posting, I wonder why lol

[snowangel32]

What a run the whole of europe would be in trouble if it comes true. In the freezer for weeks would the thames freeze i wonder.

[Nath]

Just seen snow geese turn around and back north, gotta be a good sign!!!