South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - December 19th 2012>

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looks like a winter based Mesoscale Convective Complex heading up the east coast and the Low Countries at the moment !

Well, seen as the jetstream is positioned exactly how it was all summer long this year, we'll have it shifted further North during summer 2013, this may actually allow for some prolonged heat and storms during this summer ! I know its pretty early to be talking about summer, but with this winter looking so typically zonal and boring, I can't help but think about them big exciting storms that will maybe come over to us more this summer ! Anyway, I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and a lovely day.

[Great Plum]

Merry Christmas one and all! I've just got back from Midnight Mass and 'In the Bleak Midwinter' and 'See amid the Winter's snow' were conspicuous by their absence!

[West Sussex Kate]

Merry christmas to all of you xxxxxxx

[Tom Montalbano]

Merry Christmas one and all! I've just got back from Midnight Mass and 'In the Bleak Midwinter' and 'See amid the Winter's snow' were conspicuous by their absence!

Hi GP,

Yes went to Midnight Mass myself, in the not very festive, pouring rain!

Never mind, perhaps it will be a case of "In the Bleak Mid-January". Snow will fall, snow on snow, snow on snow...............

Anyway off to bed now.

Merry Xmas to all my fellow South-Easterners.

Very best wishes, have a great day!

Tom.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Merry Christmas everyone!

Just been caught under one of those showers woke me up serious rain! Please watch out for them! Not helping river levels at all!!

[shadowfax]

I have come back to Surrey for Christmas and have just been woken by an enormous flash of lightening and crack of thunder which set my dogs off barking. This is first for me on Christmas morning!!!

[Steve C]

Happy Christmas All!

Interesting that there have been a couple of lightning flashes. The showery weather will be over my way shortly, but it looks like the bit I'm going to catch is slowly losing intensity.

[Wivenswold]

Yep, I've sneaked out of bed so I can watch this one approach.

[tinybill]

happy xmas all latest updates look horrible can see big problems coming looking at the radar for to-day looks very nasty. stay dry and don't drink and eat two much!!!! and lets hope the floods keep away

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0&lat=54.5

some big down pours coming in the flood plains in our area so keep a look out be safe

Edited December 25, 2012 by tinybill

[Steve C]

I'd love to see lightning indicated on the radar north of London. I can see there have been a few echoes south of London...

[Coast]

[Tom Montalbano]

Just heard thunder here in S.E.London, can only remember one other instance of thunder on Xmas Day, 1970.

That was in the early hours of Xmas morning and heard it during a Thames snow streamer event, the charts from that year looks a little different to todays!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1970/Rrea00119701225.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1970/Rrea00219701225.gif

Merry Xmas to everyone in our region and have a great day!

Very best wishes,

Tom.

[tinybill]

happy Xmas coast looking a bit damp!!

[Mike Storm]

Wow Xmas Thunder.... have a great day everyone

[Coast]

happy Xmas coast looking a bit damp!!

It's blowing a windy one at the moment, but hopefully not too wet a walk this afternoon, to counteract the effects of dinner and drinks.

Here's where the thunder/lightning potential is coming from:

If we aren't going to get a white Christmas, then an electric one will do!!!

[tinybill]

its black outside and its pouring down

[Coast]

its black outside and its pouring down

A nice treat for Xmas for some maybe today?

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 25 Dec 2012 06:00 to Wed 26 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 25 Dec 2012 08:22

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for southern Spain mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A deep trough moves into Europe today, the cold front will extend from eastern Poland to the eastern Alps to the west Mediterranean Sea at the end of the period. Ahead of this cold front, an unseasonably warm and moist air mass has been advected into west and central Europe. A broad warm air advection regime is located downstream across eastern Europe.

DISCUSSION

The Channel region, Benelux countries

Western Europe is affected by a strongly-forced synoptic situation today. Latest water vapor satellite image indicates a dark region associated with the cyclonically-sheared flank of the mid-level jet stream. Strong QG forcing is expected and low-level winds have turned to south ahead of the cold front. A tongue of rich low-level moisture (6 g/kg) and neutral to slightly unstable lapse rates have lead to CAPE in the order of 200 J/kg as indicated by latest Brest sounding.

Latest radar images indicate groups of thunderstorms that have developed across the Channel region moving north-eastward. Although a line of thunderstorms did not evolve, storms may organize in the strongly sheared environment, and bowing segments are not ruled out. These may be capable of producing severe wind gusts given strong low-level winds and vertical wind shear (10-15 m/s in the lowest kilometer). However, the potential seems to be too low for a risk level. Main convective activity is expected to spread into the Benelux countries before the trough weakends across the North Sea and north-western Germany.

Across the British Isles, another trough will lead to QF forcing in a convectively mixed air mass from late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected. Given the strong vertical wind shear, isolated severe wind gusts are not ruled out. Tornadoes seem to be rather unlikely given the relatively weak low-level moisture.

Should make dinner a bit more exciting!

[totalhysteria]

Merry Christmas everyone.

[Coast]

Winds really picking up now and just had a huge rain shower.

Dear Santa.....

[chilly milly]

Morning everyone and Merry Christmas to you all.

http://www.icq.com/img/friendship/static/card_7944_rs.swf

[Steve C]

It looks like there was a fair amount of T&L southwest of Colchester! I've also heard reports of a hailstorm in Colchester. Not so dramatic here though.

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

Hope your Christmas day has got off to a cracking start, all the presents have been opened in this house now.....

(please note no pets were gift wrapped, all four of them like playing with the paper)

Just the lunch to sort out now.... my main oven has chosen today of all days to break down and the turkey won't fit in the smaller oven but as luck would have it I have the key to next doors self contained annexe so I will be cooking the bird round there and popping back and forth to check on it while the roast spuds and other stuff cook round here !

[gottolovethisweather]

Isn't it funny that we just can't keep away from this place.

Happy Christmas one and all.

Just looked outside and even inside this thread, it's rein dear.

Here's to a Thunderclap or two more to aid the turkey and trimmings.

Edited December 25, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Guest archiesmummy]

Merry christmas!

Wow what a wet start! It's not stopped since 6am the garden is under water.... :o

This is just awful, am confident of JPs winter forecast tho so am sure will need the snowsuits very soon!

Have a great day everyone!

X x x

[Bluebreezer54]

Merry Christmas Everyone.

A nice little (unexpected ?) bonus for those who have had a thunderstorm this morning. The next best thing to a snowfall !!