South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - December 19th 2012>

[Coast]

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 27 Dec 2012 06:00 to Fri 28 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 26 Dec 2012 22:15

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Low geopotential is centred across Scandinavia. With the strong westerly jet, several vort-maxima travel from the Atlantic to eastern Europe. On Thursday, a ridge builds over the Atlantic, associated with an amplification of the European trough. Main focus of convective activity will be a short-wave trough moving south-eastward at the edge of the amplifying trough. It will affect the north Mediterranean region late in the period.

DISCUSSION

Southern British Isles and France

A tongue of moist Atlantic air will extend into northern France and the Channel region ahead of a cold front located to the west of the British Isles at Thursday, 06 UTC. A frontal wave will spread south-eastward during the day ahead of the approaching short-wave trough. Strong quasi-geostrophic forcing is expected ahead of the trough axis due to a strong cyclonically sheared flank of a mid-level jet maximum.

The strong forcing will affect a very moist air mass with almost neutral lapse rates especially in the northern portions where cold mid-level air is located. Models indicate some instability across the Channel region underneath the trough's base as well as south-east of the approaching cold front across France. Current thinking is that some storms will form indeed.

Strong low-level winds in excess of 20 m/s at 850 hPa and strong low-level vertical wind shear of 15 m/s (0-3 km) and 12 m/s (0-1 km) will be supportive for organized thunderstorms. Bowing lines may develop as well as mesocyclones. These storms will be capable of producing locally severe wind gusts. Additionally, soft hail will likely occur. A tornado is not ruled out given the strong low-level wind shear. A level 1 is not issued due to the marginal threat. Storms will weaken from the north later on due to the advection of colder low-level air.

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all and a special hello and ....

to (Sam) Floatylight and Chris, hope you both have a great day !

[classylady]

Thunder woke me up along wih very heavy rain....... 15 mins ago!!

[Coast]

Sam) Floatylight and Chris, hope you both have a great day !

Happy Birthday you two!!!

[tinybill]

looks like their could some very interesting weather in our area to-day as if we need any more .were my wife parents live their is water over the fields first time ever and i lived their 34 years before i left home never seen it like that ever

[tinybill]

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0&lat=54.5

looking at that we are in it looks like their could be a few problems in our area later!!

[chilly milly]

Please stop raining. It is wet enough now. Thank you.

Happy Birthday Floatylight and Chris.

Edited December 27, 2012 by Chilly Milly

[Coast]

looks like their could some very interesting weather in our area to-day as if we need any more .

I hope the worst of the rain will be gone after midday:

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very heavy rain and hail

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Very dull here in Ippy at the moment and looks as though we had some rain earlier. Interesting comments there from Tinybill and wondering how today will pan out. Wondering if we'll have any thunder. :o

Have a good day everyone.

[Ben_Cambs]

Morning all, hope you had a fantastic Christmas Day and Boxing Day!

Not too suprisingly it's raining here, currently 6C. And not too suprisingly, there's more rain on the way in the next few days! Interesting trend from the models however, with a big area of HP now likely to build in just after the New Year:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Positioning and orientation of the High will be key in determining if the weather is cloudy, mild or cold and sunny.

Happy birthday to Floatylight and Chris!

[Summer of 76]

Thanks everyone, you can switch your heating off later when i light the candles on my cake

[Coast]

Thanks everyone, you can switch your heating off later when i light the candles on my cake

We'll look out for the glow over Bedfordshire later!

[chilly milly]

I may need to start building an ark if this keeps up. Just hope there's no sharks out there in the depths.

[80sWeather]

I may need to start building an ark if this keeps up. Just hope there's no sharks out there in the depths.

I think you will find that most of the estate agents are closed over christmas!

[Lampostwatcher]

107mm of rainfall so far this December

In harrow

[lottiekent]

Lots of showers this morning, out for a blast of fresh air in a bit!

[Kent Snow]

A showery day with a maximum temperature of 8C.

[lottiekent]

Up to 9c here in the end, now 5.4c and partly cloudy. I hope we start to see some cold in the charts soon! Want something exciting to talk about weather wise!

Did anyone go back to work today? I'm very lucky to be off until just after the New Year

Edited December 27, 2012 by lottiekent

[Ruthie]

Went out sales shopping to hounslow today. Had to get out as had taken root on my sofa! It is a bit breezy and cool here tonight. Was nice to see the moon though.

Up to 9c here in the end, now 5.4c and partly cloudy. I hope we start to see some cold in the charts soon! Want something exciting to talk about weather wise!

Did anyone go back to work today? I'm very lucky to be off until just after the New Year

Hello, I'm off till 3 jan, hurrah! Enjoy your break... Pray for no more rain. It's getting too much now isn't it, horrid.

[john pike]

at least that looks dry

[john pike]

ecm at 144

looks close enough to ukmo

mildish days and should be dry

but very cold at night

[Snowangel-MK]

Thames Barrier shuts for the first time in two years to prevent flooding in London

Experts worried extra rainfall upstream and high tide could flood the capital

Gates closed for the first time since March 2010

http://www.dailymail...mises-rain.html

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Here comes the rain for tonight

Think the flood worry is due to the full moon tonight

[Snowangel-MK]

Think the flood worry is due to the full moon tonight