Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond

[stormforce 10]

I saw that storm force. I think pomeroysnow may be onto something. Look it shifted east very quickly so it could shift back west quickly too. As MS said all we need is it to move west by 100 miles and its jackpot time again!! I know it's the long shot but its happened before. To be perfectly honest I'm more happy that rain is predicted and the chance it may turn too snow than snow forecast and it just rains!! It could happen but we may get a surprise.

one thing for sure the outlook is cold, so a high risk of snow in the next few weeks. so heads up.

[John Cox]

Heres hoping Stormforce.

The Ensembles for Dublin do give hope especially from 21st .

[mountain shadow]

It's the dew points which are the problem. We dont get the colder dew points cutting beneath the rain to turn it to snow.

One possible plus might be evaporative cooling if the rain is heavy enough. Its something the models would find hard to predict.

We really need it backing West though.

[Neiller22]

Exactly. Just hope the angle of attack is better than fri or we may be looking the same result I'm afraid. But to be honest I think this may be our final letdown as gh seem to be building. Even a NE is much better for us!

[markok]

lads i wouldn't read too much into what met eireann say. they always change their forecasts everyday. one day it'll be rain, next sunny, next snow. they try cover everything! i'll await the next GFS and ECM run and we'll deffo have greater knowledge then what's gonna happen. Netweather have 68% snowfall risk for Dublin up at the moment for saturday. Dunno who updates that met eireann website but whoever they are, are at nuttin.

[Neiller22]

GP going for very cold outlook from weekend and met office outlook (10 days) cool and rainy for most! Who will be right

[bobbarley]

Met office still forecasting snow for ballycastle Friday night. Very light though!! But room for upgrade

[Neiller22]

I give up !! Now met eirann outlook has a wintry theme attached to it! Does anybody know what's happening!

[mountain shadow]

Met Office Web forecast has Carryduff down with Heavy Snow through Friday afternoon and night.

[John Cox]

I give up !! Now met eirann outlook has a wintry theme attached to it! Does anybody know what's happening!

They are all over the place at the moment.

"Sunday: A cold and frosty start for many on Sunday morning, but clearing through the morning. Increasing wind and cloud will bring heavy rain into Munster by early afternoon and to most places by early Sunday night. Some very heavy falls in places ( 25mm possible) and some falls of sleet and snow are likely also, especially on higher ground." 25mm of rain would be equivalent to 10" of snow. Yikes!!

[Neiller22]

Still all to play for I think. This will be down to now-casting!! That's good news MS. Bet that's perked your interest up again if only a little! God knows John! Least met eirann can't get it wrong. Talk in mod thread that front isn't making as much headway as first thought this morn!!

[John Cox]

Still all to play for I think. This will be down to now-casting!! That's good news MS. Bet that's perked your interest up again if only a little! God knows John! Least met eirann can't get it wrong. Talk in mod thread that front isn't making as much headway as first thought this morn!!

I suppose they have said all along that they were very uncertain, so that covers them if they want to change the forecast every 12 hours

[markok]

i knew met eireann would change it again. i wouldn't even bother looking at their website for info guys. stick to the 3 main models for info and watch out for ian ferguson's updates on the mod thread.

Edited January 16, 2013 by markok

[Downburst]

I have to say I couldn't cope if England got 10cm plus and we got very cold rain and not even a dusting or a good air frost, it's fine if we miss out normally, but not if they get something out of the ordinary, like thick blankets of the stuff. I've seen it snow in April and November in very very marginal conditions, so it is possible and perhaps we just have to wait to the day.

[Neiller22]

Rainband currently 150 west on latest 12z NAE! U may get your wish mountain shadow. A small step in the right direction. I now expect GFS to follow suit.

[mountain shadow]

Noticed Neiller, eastern Ulster in the firing zone again...

Up, Down, Up, Down...

[mountain shadow]

Early days in the 12z, It looks a little slower but more importantly tilting more favourably.

[Neiller22]

Yes mountain shadow. Maybe things are changing very slightly. Certainly forecast ulster as u. Small steps but important ones too

[mountain shadow]

Definetly much better, it has shifted west but not quite enough yet.

[Neiller22]

Maybe enough for east ulster do u not think. Lets hope it continues on its westward run later.

[mountain shadow]

Yes Neiller, both 12z NAE and 12z GFS give eastern Ulster snow, but its so close..

Edited January 16, 2013 by mountain shadow

[mountain shadow]

Much better guys and gals. Snow chances increasing through the weekend!!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130116/12/75/prectypeuktopo.png

[Neiller22]

Yeah I figured the GFS would back track and follow NAE. What we don't want now is for it to go east again later on! We need more movement west.

[mountain shadow]

UKMO further west as well.

Now with the GFS pushing this system in next, will it slide underneath?, this time the cold is embedded across Ireland..

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130116/12/84/h500slp.png

[mountain shadow]

Much better run from GFS, the next low does disrupt and would turn more readily to snow, the UKMO is even better.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130116/12/114/prectypeuktopo.png

Edited January 16, 2013 by mountain shadow