Met office Contingency planners forecasts

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

October update

November to January

• A mild 3-month period is more likely than a cold one
• However, cold weather-related impacts, such as snow, remain possible
• These impacts are more likely during the first half of the period
• Higher than normal chance of wet conditions
• Increased likelihood of impacts from heavy rainfall and strong winds, especially later in the period

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1secure.pdf

No real surprises with this and any cold more likely to be front loaded.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Don

[damianslaw]

What did it say this time last year? Every one I read always goes mild more likely than cold. 

 

 

[Frost HoIIow]

34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

What did it say this time last year? Every one I read always goes mild more likely than cold. 

 

 

Probably a safer bet for them isn't it? It's like going for a cold Canadian Winter you'd be right probably 9/10 years for most of that country. Let's face it the met office can't get shorter term right a lot of the time with a lot of chopping and changing so how they can accurately forecast months in advance I feel is a bit laughable. Of course can't completely discount it being correct, there's always that chance with our climate but I think a good degree of scepticism is in order as there's sometimes unexpected things that can happen with SSW's and what not. And no doubt background signals we are yet to know, or never find out.

[Tom Clarke]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

What did it say this time last year? Every one I read always goes mild more likely than cold. 

 

 

As mentioned in the other thread, we as planners have had a more in depth breakdown - it's the first time since the current modelling has been used that the very mild phrase has been used - specifically to the Jan/Feb months with any colder possibilities earlier in the winter which may mean that over the period 'mild' is more likely than 'very mild' when it is assessed overall.

With the other output they are using from Europe  - and overall AGW - then the potential is there perhaps for some exceptional temperatures for the time of year in the New Year.

 

[Puddy Galore]

3 hours ago, Tom Clarke said:

As mentioned in the other thread, we as planners have had a more in depth breakdown - it's the first time since the current modelling has been used that the very mild phrase has been used - specifically to the Jan/Feb months with any colder possibilities earlier in the winter which may mean that over the period 'mild' is more likely than 'very mild' when it is assessed overall.

With the other output they are using from Europe  - and overall AGW - then the potential is there perhaps for some exceptional temperatures for the time of year in the New Year.

 

what a thoroughly depressing thought right in the heart of winter…

Edited October 26, 2021 by Snowycat

[lassie23]

I think there is high possibility of mild, cold, wet, dry, windy, sunny, snowy, foggy frosty conditions this winter, but it's just a hunch.

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

what a thoroughly depressing thought right in the heart of winter…

Someone else who cannot tell the difference between AGW and the 'weather'.?

MIA

[Puddy Galore]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think there is high possibility of mild, cold, wet, dry, windy, sunny, snowy, foggy frosty conditions this winter, but it's just a hunch.

….well, yes it has to be said MetO longer range do often read that way 

[damianslaw]

Same could be said about summer.. chance of exceptional warmth doesn't mean will happen.

[Tom Clarke]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Same could be said about summer.. chance of exceptional warmth doesn't mean will happen.

It doesn't but for them to have made the 'very mild' call indicates, I would think, high confidence in a certain pressure pattern. 

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Tom Clarke said:

It doesn't but for them to have made the 'very mild' call indicates, I would think, high confidence in a certain pressure pattern. 

They are just one organisation. 

[Tom Clarke]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

They are just one organisation. 

Yes but they are very highly respected and what we were presented with is also supported by European agencies - perhaps quite a critical drought situation for SW Europe come the end of the winter.

[SLEETY]

Can't even get forecast correct same day last tuesday updated 5am  forecast rain spreading across the region in morning, then turning dry with further rain by dusk, it was fine all day!! useless

[SLEETY]

8 minutes ago, Tom Clarke said:

Yes but they are very highly respected and what we were presented with is also supported by European agencies - perhaps quite a critical drought situation for SW Europe come the end of the winter.

Dutch met going for chance of winter  like 62/63 I think I read somewhere here so not all agencies!! going mild

Edited October 26, 2021 by SLEETY

[TSNWK]

On 26/10/2021 at 16:54, Tom Clarke said:

Yes but they are very highly respected and what we were presented with is also supported by European agencies - perhaps quite a critical drought situation for SW Europe come the end of the winter.

Code for BARTLETT - shudders....

[damianslaw]

I've seen many a flip in the Met Office outlook updates at short timescales..  I just think they are always behind the curve beyond say 5 days max.

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by damianslaw

[Premiere Neige]

2 words - barbecue summer

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

2 words - barbecue summer

How's about, 'Shades of '76'?

[Mapantz]

Every year, around this time, if the Met Office aren't shouting about a cold winter, then they are bashed.

A few years ago, they were going for early cold, everybody gets excited, nobody was complaining about them then, only after it didn't happen. But the point remains, the bashing starts early if the world 'Mild' is mentioned.

Cracks me up every year! 

[Tom Clarke]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Every year, around this time, if the Met Office aren't shouting about a cold winter, then they are bashed.

A few years ago, they were going for early cold, everybody gets excited, nobody was complaining about them then, only after it didn't happen. But the point remains, the bashing starts early if the world 'Mild' is mentioned.

Cracks me up every year! 

Yes, and I just think that for them to commit , in the way they have for the more detailed analysis, for the very mild potential later on, then it is likely to be significant - at least in terms of confidence of pattern if nothing else. 

Last winter Stratospheric developments were mentioned as a possible curveball (what I understand from reading the forum you call SSWs) but this time it was not mooted.

[Dancerwithwings]

8 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I think there is high possibility of mild, cold, wet, dry, windy, sunny, snowy, foggy frosty conditions this winter, but it's just a hunch.

Sorry this list is just not on......you've forgotten the fence

[Mapantz]

On 26/10/2021 at 22:13, Tom Clarke said:

Yes, and I just think that for them to commit , in the way they have for the more detailed analysis, for the very mild potential later on, then it is likely to be significant - at least in terms of confidence of pattern if nothing else. 

Last winter Stratospheric developments were mentioned as a possible curveball (what I understand from reading the forum you call SSWs) but this time it was not mooted.

Thankfully, I don't have an overall preference. I like the cold / snow, but also don't care if it is mild, as long as there's some decent stormy conditions. I just don't like constant overcast, nothing conditions. At least with stormy conditions you get sunny and possibly showery days.

It's almost a win win in some respects 

[Premiere Neige]

12 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

How's about, 'Shades of '76'?

No, sorry......that was a year before my time!

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

No, sorry......that was a year before my time!

I'm pretty sure that it [Shades of '76] was a Netweather prediction. 2011? Anyone (or any organisation) who makes LRFs sets themselves up for ridicule -- it goes with the territory?

[Met4Cast]

On 26/10/2021 at 00:07, damianslaw said:

What did it say this time last year? Every one I read always goes mild more likely than cold. 

 

 

That's because it's literally all they forecast, year in year out, mild mild mild. 

Funnily enough the two factors they quote as being the key ones (-QBO, La Nina) actually support a colder first half to winter, so to only give 10% is utterly bizarre, but unsurprising from the Met Office. 

Giving a 10% chance of a colder than average November when all data points suggest below average is most likely is also bizarre, I can only assume the contingency forecast was based upon the Oct seasonal update.

DTN/Meteogroup interestingly are suggesting a below average winter is more likely vs mild, not sure I agree with that 100% either, but the Met Office forecast is already looking wrong and at odds with their 30 dayer forecasts.