Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[Panayiotis]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but we were told by IF the other day to allow swings in the models until the effect of the SSW shows up in them. Therefore, I'm not taking the GFS 12z as gospel by any means, and the evolution beyond T120 is still very much up for grabs.

This run is unexciting because of the refusal of the Azores/Iberian high to budge, but I think subsequent runs will show better evolutions, maybe starting from tomorrow, which I believe is the day the zonal winds reverse, as mentioned by Nick S.

Exactly, no run should be taken at gospel/trusted to at least Wednesday, as then the models will have the added data of the SSW, but we in a model discussion thread should still discuss and analyse what the models are currently showing. Edited January 5, 2013 by Panayiotis

[ITSY]

Correct me if I am wrong but the warming has only just started so the charts showing at the moment will look very different early next week? Surely Tuesday or Wednesday before we get an idea of where and what the cold will do.

You only need to look through the twitter feeds of qualified (even BBC) meteorologists to see that you are exactly right.

[SMU]

I'm laughing!

Or how about nothing within high res on the 00z GFS

Nothing before day 7 on the UKM0 00z or 12z

Nothing on the ECM.

Maybe thats a little more comprehensive-

Or maybe you would take the 06z ensembles for london-

http://www.wetterzen.../tkavnmgeur.htm

or maybe the 00z ECM ensembles for reading

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

1 cold day -

Maybe your laughing as your both mocking what were posting-

or maybe its a nervous laugh as the forum his pinned the entire hope of cold on the SSW & its suddenly dawning that maybe it just wont land for the UK...

Of the 2 OPS so far tonight- the UKMO shows the most promise at day 6 with the CAA over southern scandi orientated at a nicer angle.

So if people want to hope that a change is made thats the model to go for-

As for ignore ALL models- hum-I doubt it- Is the GFS swinging about at 140 with wild changes - No its slowley getting close to the mid term solution & im afraid that aint much cop for us.-

However a second wave as depicted on the 06z GFS may work...

Edited January 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Or how about nothing within high res on the 00z GFS

Nothing before day 7 on the UKM0 00z or 12z

Nothing on the ECM.

Maybe thats a little more comprehensive-

Or maybe you would take the 06z ensembles for london-

http://www.wetterzen.../tkavnmgeur.htm

or maybe the 00z ECM ensembles for reading

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

1 cold day -

Maybe your laughing as your both mocking what were posting-

or maybe its a nervous laugh as the forum his pinned the entire hope of cold on the SSW & its suddenly dawning that maybe it just wont land for the UK...

U on the waccy baccy son?, relax

Edited January 5, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Bonjangle]

Correct me if I am wrong but the warming has only just started so the charts showing at the moment will look very different early next week? Surely Tuesday or Wednesday before we get an idea of where and what the cold will do.

Well said , best post of the day .

[lord stratus]

Correct me if I am wrong but the warming has only just started so the charts showing at the moment will look very different early next week? Surely Tuesday or Wednesday before we get an idea of where and what the cold will do.

As you say by Wednesday things firming up on the cold spell. BBC forecast will be announcing arrival of much colder weather too for the week after next 15th to 18th jan.

[Ian Brown]

Or how about nothing within high res on the 00z GFS

Nothing before day 7 on the UKM0 00z or 12z

Nothing on the ECM.

Maybe thats a little more comprehensive-

Or maybe you would take the 06z ensembles for london-

http://www.wetterzen.../tkavnmgeur.htm

or maybe the 00z ECM ensembles for reading

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

1 cold day -

Maybe your laughing as your both mocking what were posting-

or maybe its a nervous laugh as the forum his pinned the entire hope of cold on the SSW & its suddenly dawning that maybe it just wont land for the UK...

I don't think we have ever had so much speculation and anticipation for a 'cold spell' without any sort of run consistency of where a cold block might set-up to be in our favour.

The only consistency is to build HP close or over the UK, with nothing to indicate a core of heights shift to a more favourable position. CC - you can't say that the GFS FI is 'rubbish' unless you have absolute faith in what the Strat thread posters are saying.

[phil nw.]

I would be very suspicious of this GFS run beyond HR.The rampant vortex goes against all the latest mean Ht anomalies and the latest mean outputs.

We are not expecting deep cold easterlies in HR anyway-colder yes but mainly under building high pressure -surface cold.

[Long haul to mild]

Exactly, no run should be taken at gospel/trusted to at least Wednesday, as then the models will have the added data of the SSW, but we in a model discussion thread should still discuss and analyse what the models are currently showing.

Oh yes, this is the model discussion thread so commentary on them is required, but it seems that we are in a position where the next run may change the mood of the thread entirely and all the gnashing of teeth may well be forgotten over the coming days as these poor runs turn out to be wrong (hopefully)!

[pyrotech]

Fi only has 50% accuracy on the models at the best of times, in the reliable frame we see cooling of Europe and compared to now the UK - All models.

The split vortex will change output drastically, Thats not to say we will get the cold and snow many want but it has lots of twists and turns yet.

Final picture will be very diferent.

Its almost funny, that if GFS had shown -15 850s flooding in on the end of the run we would all get excited and believe it, but fi is even more fi right now, nothing is sorted its just a case caution whatever the models show in fi until the vortex splits and blocking forms and stabilises. Even then we have forecasted more SSW events to further complicate it.

Just look for a trend to appear and look for potential, thats just what the split vortex from the SSW has caused - potential and patience is needed to see if it comes to fruitition for us.

[Gowon]

I know what a waste of £15 for a dongle for the month.

This thread is for WHAT THE MODELS SHOW just incase people had forgotton.

The 12z shows no high level blocking, No greenland high, No scandi high- other than a few transatory features.

yes it could change, however as said at the moment its barely below average for the UK.

I note a lot of protesters in the thread-

* find a chart on the 12z GFS that has england under sub -6c AIR

* find any high res 12z GFS chart that has snow for england.

Instead of people flapping & moaning at my posts- look at what the model is saying.

Err... your the one who's flapping and moaning at every run. I respect you and what you say but your not doing yourself no favours by reacting to every bad run.

Or how about nothing within high res on the 00z GFS

Nothing before day 7 on the UKM0 00z or 12z

Nothing on the ECM.

Maybe thats a little more comprehensive-

Or maybe you would take the 06z ensembles for london-

http://www.wetterzen.../tkavnmgeur.htm

or maybe the 00z ECM ensembles for reading

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

1 cold day -

Maybe your laughing as your both mocking what were posting-

or maybe its a nervous laugh as the forum his pinned the entire hope of cold on the SSW & its suddenly dawning that maybe it just wont land for the UK...

C'est la vie.

[SMU]

You only need to look through the twitter feeds of qualified (even BBC) meteorologists to see that you are exactly right.

you are making to much of the difference of information available through the models the public get to see V what the MET get-

The info is negligible for mid term forecasting bar the MOGREPs ensembles, & from what ive seen thus far this winter it isnt a trend setter it follows the likes of the ECM-

This is the first test of the new Met office GLOSEA4 model that would have predicted a significant change in upper air patterns post warming-

Only time will tell.

S

[MR EXTREMES]

I'm laughing!

just been on the phone to nhs to order some prozac before the big freeze sets in.

seriously im not bothered about fi to be honest just get the cold or even cooler weather here in the uk then see if something evolves beyond this.

and some posters are correct ian f and many others will agree that the models are working on which evolution is correct and no offence although steve murr has correctly said the charts are awful its only one run so for the likes of my self and other no so experienced posters it is only one run.

but this morning lastnigh and the day before they were great so just goes to show that its the weather its changing its pretty normal to be honest.

im still very optimistic of a good cold outbreak and some point although cooling down at the end of the week which is a good start cold in europe greece must be like the arctic by now lol.

[UV-RAY]

I've mentioned it before but we can only comment on what is being shown, this mornings runs were promising, this afternoons look dreadful. Maybe the first wave of cold from the SSW will miss us, maybe not, but can we please stop jumping on posters who comment on what is being shown, even when we don't like it.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[snowmadchrisuk]

There is only one way Ensemble member 3 is going .... at +108 , just look at all that energy being directed SE

[chionomaniac]

Or how about nothing within high res on the 00z GFS

Nothing before day 7 on the UKM0 00z or 12z

Nothing on the ECM.

Maybe thats a little more comprehensive-

Or maybe you would take the 06z ensembles for london-

http://www.wetterzen.../tkavnmgeur.htm

or maybe the 00z ECM ensembles for reading

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

1 cold day -

Maybe your laughing as your both mocking what were posting-

or maybe its a nervous laugh as the forum his pinned the entire hope of cold on the SSW & its suddenly dawning that maybe it just wont land for the UK...

Of the 2 OPS so far tonight- the UKMO shows the most promise at day 6 with the CAA over southern scandi orientated at a nicer angle.

So if people want to hope that a change is made thats the model to go for-

As for ignore ALL models- hum-I doubt it- Is the GFS swinging about at 140 with wild changes - No its slowley getting close to the mid term solution & im afraid that aint much cop for us.-

However a second wave as depicted on the 06z GFS may work...

Perhaps, I'm laughing because I don't take one run of the GFS at face value and even though I love snow I have far more important things to get stressed about in my life. Step back Steve!

[SMU]

Err... your the one who's flapping and moaning at every run. I respect you and what you say but your not doing yourself no favours by reacting to every bad run.

C'est la vie.

I dont think I need to do anyone any favours- If you dont like the analysis hit the ignore button.

Cant you read anyway- its every run of every model today so far- no decent cold in the UK.-

If getting a bit colder is all you want then good luck- enjoy that.

[snowking]

you can't say that the GFS FI is 'rubbish' unless you have absolute faith in what the Strat thread posters are saying.

Yes and I think that is a key point. As has been stressed throughout this episode so far, there are no guarantees that the effects from the stratosphere downwell.

However, to say there has been no consistency in where any potential cold block may set up is incorrect - there has been plenty of consistent guidance on this from H5 mean anomalies, current MJO forecasts and (of course) the stratosphere, and they all conclude in eventual placement of strong heights around Greenland.

But as ever the weather will do whatever it wants to do. Nothing is guaranteed, but the 12z certainly goes against the grain of recent output

SK

[IDO]

Well said , best post of the day .

You do realise that not everyone in the NH on our latitude will get the cold from the SSW? It will favour the lucky ones but others may miss out, get a little bit or maybe regular cold excursions, but no prolonged cold. When the model (GFS 12z) shows in a run, the UK missing out, it is another possibility. Of course its FI and wont happen like that, the same as all those snowfest FI charts that are posted after a good run. At the moment there is no consistency and even the good runs the cold occurs late in FI. The two this morning both had the initial v.cold uppers just to our east on the continent (at D8/9) followed by another week of HP over the UK. Late in FI they showed promise, but by your own admission its fallacy to look that far ahead!

The GFS 12z was poor. We dont want too many more like that.

Edited January 5, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

WOW - there is not enough men in white coats to share around

[on the coast]

you are making to much of the difference of information available through the models the public get to see V what the MET get-

The info is negligible for mid term forecasting bar the MOGREPs ensembles, & from what ive seen thus far this winter it isnt a trend setter it follows the likes of the ECM-

This is the first test of the new Met office GLOSEA4 model that would have predicted a significant change in upper air patterns post warming-

Only time will tell.

S

Maybe your right? Lets see what the ECM shows.

[jethro]

I do not understand?

Perhaps these posts should be in the solar thread, but anyway

What has 1947 being in solar max have to do with anything?

Firstly for any signifigant climate changes you need cumalative years of low solar max and solar min. Then you get a lag of several years. So our lowest for many years minimum would take several years with the lag to have an effect. Like around now not during the actual minimum. I think we would need a end to max now, and another low minimum to see any recordable climatic changes. To see lag and effects see Dalton and Maunder minimum.

Not necessarily true. The lag effect is from any variance in the TSI and yes, that is cumulative over the solar cycle. However, low/high solar activity, including short bursts, has an impact upon the Ultra Violet levels and this has been shown to promote blocking weather patterns in the NH when the levels are low. Mike Lockwood published a paper on this a couple of years ago, in this he made a connection to the colder winter of 2009/10 and speculated what the future may hold for the UK if solar levels remained as low as some predict.

[MR EXTREMES]

U on the waccy baccy son?, relax

i am i need it makes me read the models better and the charts look better sorry mods cheer up everyone 1 run ecm top of the pops and might show ideal growing conditions for wacky baccy and blow torch southwest flow and we can all smoke some then.

steve i agree your only saying what the models show and there some good and more bad showing and its within your rights to say how u see it.

[chris55]

I don't think we have ever had so much speculation and anticipation for a 'cold spell' without any sort of run consistency of where a cold block might set-up to be in our favour.

The only consistency is to build HP close or over the UK, with nothing to indicate a core of heights shift to a more favourable position. CC - you can't say that the GFS FI is 'rubbish' unless you have absolute faith in what the Strat thread posters are saying.

You do have to remember the METO are very much behind the SSW and it's possible affects, as ever with winter cold in the UK we will just have to sit back and see what unfolds. But I'd heed the advise from Ian f on this one (as he has an ear to those with by far the most data and experience) and just sit back for a while without being to set on what each individual Op shows.

Lets wait for the ensembles and the ECM then we can make a clearer decision on TONIGHT'S output. But of course then we have tomorrow to contend with...and the day after....and so on.

[ITSY]

SM must be having a bad day at the office. Best you uproot that dongle of yours if you get yourself this tangled up over a day's worth of runs as you put it. Basically every qualified forecaster in the country put your views in perspective, best you stop ignoring them. RELAX MAN, WORRY ABOUT OTHER THINGS.