Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[phil nw.]

Whilst I agree on how we can't expect to see any cold jump out at us in the HR, we have to remember this is the model discussion thread and so all comments on what is being shown should be shown respect. No one is trolling merely commenting on the latest output, which will change on the next run.

I have not accused anyone of trolling.Just simply asking for perspective wrt timing of any deep cold SI.

[cooling climate]

Steve pert 4 should put a smile on your face.

[UV-RAY]

I think you will find that its mostly monthly changes not short term changes and very negligable from a single m class flare. the rarer x class i am not so sure about, Although these flares are huge with the energy they emit, they are comparatively small compared to the wholesome energy given off the sun. If the SSW does not give us the cold spell we hope for then i stand by the original quote i made that it will not be due to this m Class solar flare.

That is my understanding also, any impact in a change of activity takes around 3-6 weeks to work its way down through the atmosphere, my analysis is more observational than scientific. Edited January 5, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[MR EXTREMES]

gem t144 looks like it could evolve into something more wintry in time.

and the jma dont look terrible evolution either.

[blizzard81]

The models do not take solar flares into account and I think any more comments about solar flares should be deleted or moved to a more appropriate thread.

This is exactly the sort of reply that stops people commenting on threads like this. Fortunately, I am not like most people, so

I will not be deterred from offering my thoughts!!

[UV-RAY]

I have not accused anyone of trolling.Just simply asking for perspective wrt timing of any deep cold SI.

Sorry Phil I wasn't accusing yourself of that.

[lorenzo]

Thank you GFS 12z for successfully creating a riot, evidently has not read the script ! No instant fun to be had on that run. Let's see what the ECM delivers..

[SMU]

Come on Steve.The real cold pattern was never going to suddenly jump out at us within the HR.

A building High and initially surface cold first and if the the forecasted anomalies and mean hts,ens graphs etc are right the deeper cold will come later.

Let`s bear in mind the advice from the Pros. beware of run to run volatility,now more than ever.

Sorry Phil ( Im going to take my time to word this)

The models are no different to they normally are volatility wise, we need to try & pick the bones out of their weaknesses & today is no different, do you really see major swings from the GFS at the moment, no its been pretty consistent I think- especially once it plucked out the ridging that the other models were missing some 48 hours ago.

The problem with saying the cold will come later is are you referring to that in respect to the SSW or just the way the H5s are positiong themselves in the mid term-?

If its just the models then maybe, but by the same token we have been saying that over since the start of december with nothing meaningful actually varifying to date this Winter.

If in terms of the strat then yes the SSW will buy us more time & more bites of the cherry & its reducing the overall zonal wind which should keep throwing up patterns condusive for the UK to become colder. however the cold cant arrive at every locale along 60N & after a while if the patterns are blocking driven but the UK keep missing then thats our lucks out-

People keep hanging off Ians every word, however really its a higher level summary of what 'generally' we can already sumise- although I dont mean to take anything away from that because there is SOME info in there we dont see, but also a good balance on a scientific level that we can enjoy-

S

Edited January 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Long haul to mild]

Am I the only one who reads very little into ensemble means? If you have a big mild cluster and a big cold cluster, the mean will show a middle evolution that barely exists on the runs! Whereas the truth will probably be at either end?

[IDO]

The control run from the 12z also shows the first cold uppers pass to our east with a passing glance to the SE:

With HP over the UK:

The short ensembles have a split between cool and colder 2m temps by D8:

At least seasonal.

[fergieweather]

The models do not take solar flares into account and I think any more comments about solar flares should be deleted or moved to a more appropriate thread.

It's bizarre, for sure. How has all that stuff crept into discussion?

[BarometerBunts]

SM, please don't take this the wrong way but you have just moved, lost your Internet during an impending SSW event, spent £15 on a dongle thingy to see you through until set up properly and the first run of charts following this are not the best. Think I would be stressed under those circumstances and less tolerant of some of the comments that have been posted. That said, UK is undergoing a pattern change, it will be get colder and surely this is a step in the right direction? I believe the greater variance run to run is an indicator that there is difficulty getting to grips with this SSW and potential outcome. Suspect another few runs might show clarity

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Sorry Phil ( Im going to take my time to word this)

The models are no different to they normally are volatility wise, we need to try & pick the bones out of their weaknesses & today is no different, do you really see major swings from the GFS at the moment, no its been pretty consistent I think- especially once it plucked out the ridging that the other models were missing some 48 hours ago.

The problem with saying the cold will come later is are referring to that in repect to the SSW or just the way the H5s are positiong themselves in the mid term-?

If its just the models then maybe, but by the same token we have been saying that over since the start of december with nothing meaningful actually varifying to date this Winter.

If in terms of the strat then yes the SSW will buy us more time & more bites of the cherry & its reducing the overall zonal wind which should keep throwing up patterns condusive for the UK to become colder. however the cold cant arrive at every locale along 60N & after a while if the patterns are blocking driven but the UK keep missing then thats our lucks out-

People keep hanging off Ians every word, however really its a higher level summary of what 'generally' we can already sumise- although I dont mean to take anything away from that because there is SOME info in there we dont see, but also a good balance on a

scientific level that we can see-

S

I wouldn't say hang off every word, but some, ok more like a lot of people would rather listen to a pro than a amateur, that is the same in any walk of life

[jethro]

I think you will find that its mostly monthly changes not short term changes and very negligable from a single m class flare. the rarer x class i am not so sure about, Although these flares are huge with the energy they emit, they are comparatively small compared to the wholesome energy given off the sun. If the SSW does not give us the cold spell we hope for then i stand by the original quote i made that it will not be due to this m Class solar flare.

I'm not saying if we fail to get the cold weather it will be due to a solar flare, merely pointing out that TSI is not the only factor when measuring solar activity.

[TAFKAP]

This is exactly the sort of reply that stops people commenting on threads like this. Fortunately, I am not like most people, so

I will not be deterred from offering my thoughts!!

Solar flares have nothing to do with the nwp. They should be discussed in another thread and are quite frankly off topic in this particular thread. Put the solar flare stuff somewhere else and feel free to go nuts discussing everything from the impact of solar flares on tropospheric conditions and even the impact of the iluminati and the lizard people who David Icke says rule the world, just not here.

[bluearmy]

come on people. gfs at day 10: 06z = massive greeny high. 12z = greeny vortex. consistency post high res = nowt. given the 06z gefs, the 12z op is not a surprise to me. however, all it does in reality is reduce the chances that we get a surprise early snowfall out of this evolution next weekend. the trend towards the trough coming in from the east is only something that has cropped up over the past 24/36 hours. to see it swinging away again should not be a shock. i would wait to see ecm 12z before making any further comments.

[chris55]

Watch ECM throw out a beaut of a run!!!!

[Methuselah]

This is exactly the sort of reply that stops people commenting on threads like this. Fortunately, I am not like most people, so

I will not be deterred from offering my thoughts!!

How so? It's hardly relevant to the computer models, is it - unless, of course, the resulting EM radiation ruins a few satellites?

[UV-RAY]

Solar flares have nothing to do with the nwp. They should be discussed in another thread and are quite frankly off topic in this particular thread. Put the solar flare stuff somewhere else and feel free to go nuts discussing everything from the impact of solar flares on tropospheric conditions and even the impact of the iluminati and the lizard people who David Icke says rule the world, just not here.

Unfortunately that big ball of fire is the single most biggest factor on what controls our weather, off course some think they know it all and come out with wise cracks. But you are right on one thing it shouldn't be discussed here

[Weathizard]

ENS at168 look very good to me? Some people never learn do they. Some frankly, idiotic posts this afternoon!!

[pyrotech]

I'm not saying if we fail to get the cold weather it will be due to a solar flare, merely pointing out that TSI is not the only factor when measuring solar activity.

I am saying that a solar flare will have little or no impact on our weather, im not so sure about a CME as they are bigger and stronger

I replied as your a forum mod but i also posted in a more appropriate forum so perhaps anyone wanting to read what nasa says about this and continue the debate can do so there http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/14968-aurora-sun-activity-resources-thread/page__st__20

[chionomaniac]

Ensembles at T+240

Lots of height rises towards Greenland there - and a few stronger vortex solutions and a lot of variance....

Edited January 5, 2013 by chionomaniac

[bluearmy]

It's bizarre, for sure. How has all that stuff crept into discussion?

i think thats my fault. GP posted a week or so back that he thought some solar activity late november may have been responsible for upsetting the december cold push by mechanisms that eventually built the azores ridge where we should have seen a trough. when there was a slight downgrade on a run yesterday at some point, i mischievously posted re solar activity. tee hee !! doesnt take much on this thread !!

[phil nw.]

Sorry Phil ( Im going to take my time to word this)

The models are no different to they normally are volatility wise, we need to try & pick the bones out of their weaknesses & today is no different, do you really see major swings from the GFS at the moment, no its been pretty consistent I think- especially once it plucked out the ridging that the other models were missing some 48 hours ago.

The problem with saying the cold will come later is are you referring to that in respect to the SSW or just the way the H5s are positiong themselves in the mid term-?

If its just the models then maybe, but by the same token we have been saying that over since the start of december with nothing meaningful actually varifying to date this Winter.

If in terms of the strat then yes the SSW will buy us more time & more bites of the cherry & its reducing the overall zonal wind which should keep throwing up patterns condusive for the UK to become colder. however the cold cant arrive at every locale along 60N & after a while if the patterns are blocking driven but the UK keep missing then thats our lucks out-

People keep hanging off Ians every word, however really its a higher level summary of what 'generally' we can already sumise- although I dont mean to take anything away from that because there is SOME info in there we dont see, but also a good balance on a

scientific level that we can see-

S

Steve i always take care when posting and refer to all outputs.

If anything the Ht anomalies and ens graphs have strengthened the cold signal and i have posted on these earlier today.

I think all the op runs are volatile beyond t120-144 and of course GFS in low resolution more so with placements of the ridge/troughing.

I am surprised that you seemed disappointed that this GFS run didn`t show deep cold in the early part of the run-HR that`s all.

[coram]

The models do not take solar flares into account and I think any more comments about solar flares should be deleted or moved to a more appropriate thread.

I don't think that you should be so dismissive of flares. There were loads of them in the late 70s and look what we got in 78/79 and 81/82. Bearing in mind that SSW didn't even exist in those days I think it is fair to say that they played a big part in our weather.

Steve Murr is a legend and if he says it's going to be balmy I don'd think we should dismiss him as barmy.