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Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

Definitely like the 12z ECM so far the t144 chart looks very promising with heights

starting to appear towards Greenland and WOW just seen the t168 chart and lovely

WAA up towards Greenland.

I was going to say this is similar to the BOM in the fact that the low below Greenland

is absorbed by the the low swing east/southeast out of the US allowing the advection

where as on the GFS the it does not phase the energy but sends most of it east

towards the UK.

Cracking run so far.

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Jayces Enthusiast

Jayces

Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London
Posted

http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?05-0

much better ECM- infact the best run of the day - on a par with the BOM.

Not the 2 important things-

* shortwave track moving ESE- instead of GFS ENE

* Vertical advection North in the atlantic instead of NE.

ECM follows the BOM 12s

S

Happy 8,888 post.

Clearly still a long way ago with such model divergence.

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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted

guys a qs and sorry mods for the off topic post. Qs. Gp said the dec cold sbell faled because of nov solar activity? Is this not tru then?

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Looking at the Ensembles and various Models , The cold could come quicker than we think , there are some epic runs out there within +120 hours ... I don't think we will be looking at very long before we start to tap into some cold air... Next Weekend time would likely be quite cold at the surface by then.

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
Posted (edited)

It doesn't matter if there's a massive attic high! If it doesn't affect us then it's irrelevant.

I checked my attic, seems alright to me.

On a serious note, how does it not have any effect on our weather?

Surely all that cold has to drop out somewhere, even if it is not in our area, it still has an effect on what occurs here, and everywhere in the Northern hemisphere.

Also, on the basis that the models are simply a prediction (NWP) and the cold is within touching distances, only subtle changes are required to get it here. Bearing in mind then that we are expecting variables in the output over the next few days or more, I cannot see how any cold spell has been scuppered, should it be about to occur or not.

Too many conflicts of ideas and such a small margin for error to say exactly what will happen in 10-15 days time.

Potential still available for both causes and pretty much our weather could still come from anywhere under the sun.

ECM and BOM providing another solution to that matter....to be expected though at this time range.

Now, with the details at hand (SSW, MJO, etc), what would you favor?

Edited by The watcher
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lord stratus Newbie

lord stratus

Posted
Posted · Hidden by Methuselah, January 5, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by Methuselah, January 5, 2013 - No reason given

guys a qs and sorry mods for the off topic post. Qs. Gp said the dec cold sbell faled because of nov solar activity? Is this not tru then?

It's not true. Please post this sort of message on another board.

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ChartViewer Apprentice

ChartViewer

Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
Posted (edited)

This could be THAT..ECM V2............Hehe

ECH1-192.GIF?05-0

216 huge gh

ECH1-216.GIF?05-0

Edited by ChartViewer
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

It hasnt come yet on meteociel but looking forward to 192hrs,as people have posted the wetterzentrale ones!

post-14819-0-56606900-1357411670_thumb.g

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Okay its come through and WOW, Greenland high anyone? That low should undercut sending the cold and snow our way!

Wait just noticed that part of the PV holding -20C uppers way out to the east will it come our way I wonder?

post-17320-0-25999100-1357411702_thumb.g

Edited by Panayiotis
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?05-0

& theres your result... the DADDY.

Advection in the right place ( & infact if you trace back to my first comment on the 12z it was in there)

get the vertical advection & it will come- the wrong NE advection & it will go wrong-

The ECM would put us on the cusp of a memorable cold spell for the UK.

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

guys a qs and sorry mods for the off topic post. Qs. Gp said the dec cold sbell faled because of nov solar activity? Is this not tru then?

I wouldn't expect even GP could give you a 100% answer on that , Solar Cycles and the weather is a a fairly new Science and there is still a lot of study that needs to be done on the matter. As there was no SSW in December there was always a chance it would fail as there was to much energy going into the Block , but now the atmosphere is likely to become much more conductive to blocking with a much weaker polar vortex that has totally split . A pattern change is happening as we speak and at worst case , we will keep under the Influence of High pressure with the surface turning much Colder with Fog and Frost becoming common and lasting all day in places... I think over all though we will see a Westward shift with winds coming in from the North or North East , (maybe SE at first) ..

Chris

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

WOW! cracking ecm 12z,reload from the NE anyone.

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?05-0

& theres your result... the DADDY.

Advection in the right place ( & infact if you trace back to my first comment on the 12z it was in there)

get the vertical advection & it will come- the wrong NE advection & it will go wrong-

The ECM would put us on the cusp of a memrable cold spell for the UK.

S

and being the top model in the verification table then who knows could the gfs back down in a day or two time.

remember mjo moving swiftly to phase 7 and even 8 we will see.

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