Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[lord stratus]

ENS at168 look very good to me? Some people never learn do they. Some frankly, idiotic posts this afternoon!!

Unfortunately some of the idiotic posts are from members who should know better!

[Froze were the Days]

12z was exactly what I feared when looking at the 06z - I had a response from Nick S about this - but as you can see we don't get the amplification and then the undercutting under this rather 'dross' looking area of high pressure to the north and in plac we have a short wave just to the west which really doesn't do anything and the greater heights to the south become evident.

Surely though yet again isn't the outcome of this run going totally against the signals (yet again) of the SSW event with low height to the north?

[blizzard81]

It's bizarre, for sure. How has all that stuff crept into discussion?

Hello Ian, I must admit, I am a little suprised by your apparent dismissive attitude to solar activity.

I understand the arguments that this may be more appropriate in another thread but at the end of the

day, everything is inter related in this science. How many times have people mentioned the strat over the

last week or so in this thread? This has been mentioned because of it's obvious effects on our weather and

is understood more than solar activity but I would argue that the sun probably affects our weather more so.

[Iceaxecrampon]

12Z for the 15th Jan (+240) I know - I know......

Temps down on the continent:

5% chance for London

Europe does well.

I'll get my coat.......

Ian

[Methuselah]

Here you go, peeps...The right place for arguing about Solar flares:

[nick sussex]

Putting aside the lower resolution GFS earlier the writing was on the wall because of the Azores high not ridging sufficiently north and west.

The UKMO although messy at 144hrs is far better, the GEM also looks okay at 144hrs. So best not let the GFS deflate the mood in here too much.

Lets wait for the ECM.

[Kentish Man]

I don't comment in this thread much these days but after seeing a large number of failed easterlies and northerlies over my several years as a member of this site including the dead cert we supposedly had in early December I'd really take a more sanguine view of the GFS 12z. Given the exceptionally wet period over the last nine months we are overdue a persistent spell of anticyclonic weather. I feel reasonably confident it will turn colder as a result but maybe less so about any snow.

[pyrotech]

Ensembles at T+240

[attachment=151313:gensnh-2-1-240.png

Lots of height rises towards Greenland there - and a few stronger vortex solutions

Hardly surprising the models at 850mb and surface have not got a clue, the 500 are all over the place but with one theme in common, which is a distortion to the polar vortex. This is what everyone should be looking at, lots of positive there, and lots of possabilities. It also shows why no model has any clue beyond 5-6 days.

Patience is the word of the day and lets see how these charts materilise.

[TAFKAP]

I don't think that you should be so dismissive of flares. There were loads of them in the late 70s and look what we got in 78/79 and 81/82. Bearing in mind that SSW didn't even exist in those days I think it is fair to say that they played a big part in our weather.

Steve Murr is a legend and if he says it's going to be balmy I don'd think we should dismiss him as barmy.

Sorry but are you even reading what I'm saying. The point I am making is that they have no relevance to model discussion or to nwp output.

[ChartViewer]

Looking forward now so much to the ECM 12Z............Caution advised ...Mind you i suggest everyone get their beer/spirit of choice before watching it unfold.......Great model watching times ahead

[TAFKAP]

Here you go, peeps...The right place for arguing about Solar flares: http://forum.netweat...20#entry2465226

Thank you Rybris.

[IDO]

Certainly the op looks a mild outlier compared to the mean at 2m temps in FI:

[SMU]

I wouldn't say hang off every word, but some, ok more like a lot of people would rather listen to a pro than a amateur, that is the same in any walk of life

thats fine- but if you look into the detail & cut through all the niceties you will find noone can forecast whats going to happen post day 7/8-

HOWEVER what the professionals do is interpret the model data.

The model data today is not good for cold in the mid term............ wrap that up in as many scientific phrases as you like- it still means the same.

S

Edited January 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[blizzard81]

Solar flares have nothing to do with the nwp. They should be discussed in another thread and are quite frankly off topic in this particular thread. Put the solar flare stuff somewhere else and feel free to go nuts discussing everything from the impact of solar flares on tropospheric conditions and even the impact of the iluminati and the lizard people who David Icke says rule the world, just not here.

At the end of the day, we use the NWP as a means of deciphering what type of weather is coming our way.

All sorts of factors affect this ( the strat being the hot topic at the moment). Solar activity is just another factor, so why

should we not discuss this? By the way, it would have been nice to have an intelligent reply instead of sarcasm.

My original post was directed at Steve M, not yourself.

[suxer]

I'm laughing!

Yep poor comments from respected members...

[scottishandy]

So the GFS 12z OP run was not great for cold/snow or cold potential, we can all see that.

So do we just not comment in which case we wouldn't have much of a thread? Or do we say it as it is on the computer screen with some emotion attached?

I personally loves SM's enthusiasm and energy in his posts when models are showing cold (potential), so why should he not express equal/opposite emotion when the model run is not so good? I would miss his excitement and insight so have to accept that if he can't see any hope in a run it's probably not good.

Steve never says "This is what is going to happen" on the basis of one run, he describes what he sees on the model and gives excellent information on what is being shown and how it could change/develop.

A fair reaction which you can take note of, ignore or go and study the charts and come to your own conclusion.

I'll say again, any run could happen otherwise the big computers are a complete waste of money, we just need to decide how likely they are to happen. Then we discuss out thoughts hopefully without offending each other.

Hopefully ECM 12z can model a better solution and excited Steve can come back! Looking forward to whatever it brings.

[SMU]

perhaps the non model data posts should be removed seeing as they add no commentary or value-

which will of course this one goes to the bin- look at the above 2 pages of non model comments from people that actually spent their time writing about someone elses posts not to their liking... which is of course easier than posting a model interpretation -...

I used to think this thread was well moderated.

S

Edited January 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z ensembles

[Jupiters Winter]

bad enough we have the snow shield over the UK so far this winter. Now we got the riot shield out. Frustration rather than fruitation. Interesting ECM to come.

[Jaffusmaximus]

I can honestly see from the models a transitional period that has not yet revealed itself in its entirety. To claim we will be in the freezer or basking in mildness soon at this stage would be premature until another couple of runs roll in. It does surprise me to see how some grasp onto one run and want to hoist their flag over it claiming it verifies their own opinions this leaves the potential for big climb downs!

[Radiating Dendrite]

It's one run? Or is the 12z on the 5th January the determining factor for our weather for the next three weeks?

I know it can be annoying when nothing will go smoothly for us cold wise, but that is the problem with having 2000 miles of water next door to us.

It may be cold and snowy or just dry and cold, but at least the rain has stopped and people are not watching there belongings float out the front door.

Get a grip

[Long haul to mild]

GFS 12z ensembles

Considerable scatter even at 5 days out, and massive divergence from then on. There's going to be huge swings over the next few days (both models and moods in here!)

[chionomaniac]

perhaps the non model data posts should be removed seeing as they add no commentary or value-

which will of course this one goes to the bin- look at the above 2 pages of non model comments from people that actually spent their time writing about someone elses posts not to their liking... which is of course easier than posting a model interpretation -...

I used to think this thread was well moderated.

S

Steve if you or anyone has a problem with any posts in this thead then please use the report button and the mods will deal with it.

[SMU]

Blizzard 1 I wont really add on the solar flares- it doesnt come up in thread very often, as I guess its knowledge limits around individual solar events having a direct effect on the mean speed of the jet-

Obviously we comment on low sunpsot years & high solar activity- but thats it im afraid...

S

Steve if you or anyone has a problem with any posts in this thead then please use the report button and the mods will deal with it.

Will do- I just always worked under the premise that 'obvious' off topic posts that have no bearing will be removed..-

thanks though.

S

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

GFS 12z ensembles

Not bad at all. The Op was clearly on the mild side of the ensembles and I'm sure some of the 12z GFS commentary would have been vastly different had it gone the same way as some of those colder members.

There is no change to the trend since this morning in my opinion.