Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[SMU]

Perhaps, I'm laughing because I don't take one run of the GFS at face value and even though I love snow I have far more important things to get stressed about in my life. Step back Steve!

Who said I was stressed- I posted a commentary on the relative poor outlook from the 12's which followed a mediocre set of 00z- backed up by the mediocre ensembles.

The problem is the thread is full of people who have either suddenly become experts or dont want to hear anything realistic said about a model unless it shows cold.

Fair enough- theres a big red ignore button over there- people use it. or post their own analysis.

FWIW the GFS 150 ensemble mean of 20 members- poor.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-150.png?12

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

I blame the solar flare that hasn't even happened yet.

[fergieweather]

Ian F said yesterday that the models will swing wildly as they struggle to get to grips with whats happening. It may end up mild, may end up cold, but that is exactly what is happening right now. I fear for the sanity of some who seem so fragile as to get so upset over 1 run from 1 model which doesn't give everyone the desired outcome. Honestly. From posters of such experience and worth, I've come to expect more level headidness.

I posted a couple of days back how we could end up with weather from any compass direction. Equally: the vast polarisation of outcomes in 2 successive GFS runs is instructive and tells a key part of this growing (and still incipient) saga; i.e., as expected, we will see wild swings at longer range.

[Chris K]

As pointed out already, it seems some posters are still ignoring what has been repeated countless times - the fact the outputs from the models could swing quite wildly at the moment, (especially post t+192!!). Okay, we can look for trends etc, but there's already some noticeable differences by the time we reach the T+126 to T+144 mark with regards to the timing and positioning of the surface low in the Atlantic - let alone other things. As shown in a previous post by Bobbydog, the scatter in the ensembles is yet more proof of this variance.

We could end up mild, cold, mixture...we cannot really confidently say which now... although trend at the moment is for a cool down, as Ian F, as well as others. have pointed out before.

It would just be nice for people to refrain from posting any "winter is over" style posts because one run doesn't show their preferred outcome.

It would also be helpful for people to not criticise someone with no reasoning, just because they talk about how bad a certain chart is. They might just be stating what it shows! Let them explain first, or politely request why they think it's bad before, what reads like, arguing whether they are wrong or not.

One thing for sure - i'm finding the model watching fascinating at the moment, whatever weather we end up with. (Unless it's more rain )

Edited January 5, 2013 by Chris K

[coram]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-186.png?12

theres nothing good about this chart. zero. nada.

Except for a deeply negative NAO, SSW propagating down through the trophoshere and cross polar winds.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I posted a couple of days back how we could end up with weather from any compass direction. Equally: the vast polarisation of outcomes in 2 successive GFS runs is instructive and tells a key part of this growing (and still incipient) saga; i.e., as expected, we will see wild swings at longer range.

Praise be the lord - a voice of reason

[phil nw.]

I dont think I need to do anyone any favours- If you dont like the analysis hit the ignore button.

Cant you read anyway- its every run of every model today so far- no decent cold in the UK.-

If getting a bit colder is all you want then good luck- enjoy that.

Come on Steve.The real cold pattern was never going to suddenly jump out at us within the HR.

A building High and initially surface cold first and if the the forecasted anomalies and mean hts,ens graphs etc are right the deeper cold will come later.

Let`s bear in mind the advice from the Pros. beware of run to run volatility,now more than ever.

[Panayiotis]

You do realise that not everyone in the NH on our latitude will get the cold from the SSW? It will favour the lucky ones but others may miss out, get a little bit or maybe regular cold excursions, but no prolonged cold. When the model (GFS 12z) shows in a run, the UK missing out, it is another possibility. Of course its FI and wont happen like that, the same as all those snowfest FI charts that are posted after a good run. At the moment there is no consistency and even the good runs the cold occurs late in FI. The two this morning both had the initial v.cold uppers just to our east on the continent (at D8/9) followed by another week of HP over the UK. Late in FI they showed promise, but by your own admission its fallacy to look that far ahead!

The GFS 12z was poor. We dont want too many more like that.

I do feel like a lot of people are putting pressure on Chiono, as they think that a SSW will guarantee cold, but never has he suggested it will bring cold to the UK, it just increases our chances. People should get that straight.

[Jaffusmaximus]

Who said I was stressed- I posted a commentary on the relative poor outlook from the 12's which followed a mediocre set of 00z- backed up by the mediocre ensembles.

The problem is the thread is full of people who have either suddenly become experts or dont want to hear anything realistic said about a model unless it shows cold.

Fair enough- theres a big red ignore button over there- people use it. or post their own analysis.

FWIW the GFS 150 ensemble mean of 20 members- poor.

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-150.png?12

S

I'm really not being smart but so I can judge whether to take your comments seriously would you consider yourself an expert?

[pyrotech]

I think this highlights to us how we are still in the begginings of forecasting the atmosphere. The best computers in the world, some of the best brains programming them and lots of understanding of the dynamics of the atmosphere that we know about.

Problem is its a very complicated and dynamic science and there is alot of information we still do not know, that we do not know that we do not know !!!

The models are only as good as the information for the formulas that was inputted by humans, lots of inconsistancy remains.

Lets let the polar vortex split do its work and set up blocking before we throw the toys out of the pram.

Im a little dissapointed to see valued, longterm , informative posters on here being given a hard time.

If the models can not get a grip, then noone on here can, but we can and are allowed to make informative speculation and ideas.

[weather eater]

Who'd have thought it, eh? One run from one model has failed to predict exactly what everyone wants to see. Amazing!

I know I’m getting such a sore neck viewing the car crash, if people would firstly take a long view, in other words review the last run but review it in context with previous output and the teleconnection evidence, thus not treat it as a final evolution and the last word. Secondly its weather not a love affair, ditch the emotion its frankly infantile, sorry people but I can’t think of a better word for it.

[blizzard81]

Or how about nothing within high res on the 00z GFS

Nothing before day 7 on the UKM0 00z or 12z

Nothing on the ECM.

Maybe thats a little more comprehensive-

Or maybe you would take the 06z ensembles for london-

http://www.wetterzen.../tkavnmgeur.htm

or maybe the 00z ECM ensembles for reading

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

1 cold day -

Maybe your laughing as your both mocking what were posting-

or maybe its a nervous laugh as the forum his pinned the entire hope of cold on the SSW & its suddenly dawning that maybe it just wont land for the UK...

Of the 2 OPS so far tonight- the UKMO shows the most promise at day 6 with the CAA over southern scandi orientated at a nicer angle.

So if people want to hope that a change is made thats the model to go for-

As for ignore ALL models- hum-I doubt it- Is the GFS swinging about at 140 with wild changes - No its slowley getting close to the mid term solution & im afraid that aint much cop for us.-

However a second wave as depicted on the 06z GFS may work...

Hi steve, what are your thoughts on the recent comments with regards to increased solar flares over the next three days?

Do the models take this into account? I have definitely noticed a correlation between sunspot activity and effects on our weather

in terms of increased west to east energy when solar activity increases.

[Methuselah]

Can we please stop pratting about? We don't want to keep ducking under flying dummies...Ta very much!

[MR EXTREMES]

this is a good chart from this morning ecm and although after this it stays cold at the surface and would expect some kind of convection energy from this before heights move in over the uk but keep surface cold looked in so this really is not a bad chart.

[Long haul to mild]

I think part of the problem is that some are expecting too much too soon following some encouraging model runs recently. If we step back and look, the other day no real cold was being expected until mid-late month. That's not changed in my view and the posts from IF state the situation perfectly.

There will probably be an amazing pub run later showing -10 uppers and countrywide snow next weekend, but it will have to be taken with exactly the same bucket of salt as the 12z just passed!

Edited January 5, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[TAFKAP]

As Steve said, the usual, all the cold uppers going east:

Slightly further east than the 06z, and looks like the first chance of v.cold we will miss out.

I still find it odd that even experienced members confidently speak of the model output showing conditions 10 days into the future as gospel.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Who said I was stressed- I posted a commentary on the relative poor outlook from the 12's which followed a mediocre set of 00z- backed up by the mediocre ensembles.

The problem is the thread is full of people who have either suddenly become experts or dont want to hear anything realistic said about a model unless it shows cold.

Fair enough- theres a big red ignore button over there- people use it. or post their own analysis.

FWIW the GFS 150 ensemble mean of 20 members- poor.

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-150.png?12

S

Can't really get on with them mean charts Steve , even the 00z mean didn't look great , when most members were showing Cold. I find there more useful as a mean , if you use the 850's mean as apose to the 500's , For example when most members show pressure near Greenland , the mean always seems to show it as blues , and not yellows and greens .. not sure what causes this .

Edited January 5, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[bobbydog]

EY! EY! calm down!!

[UV-RAY]

Come on Steve.The real cold pattern was never going to suddenly jump out at us within the HR.

A building High and initially surface cold first and if the the forecasted anomalies and mean hts,ens graphs etc are right the deeper cold will come later.

Let`s bear in mind the advice from the Pros. beware of run to run volatility,now more than ever.

Whilst I agree on how we can't expect to see any cold jump out at us in the HR, we have to remember this is the model discussion thread and so all comments on what is being shown should be shown respect. No one is trolling merely commenting on the latest output, which will change on the next run.

[IDO]

Come on Steve.The real cold pattern was never going to suddenly jump out at us within the HR.

A building High and initially surface cold first and if the the forecasted anomalies and mean hts,ens graphs etc are right the deeper cold will come later.

Let`s bear in mind the advice from the Pros. beware of run to run volatility,now more than ever.

There are more factors than the SSW that will influence the UK's weather I would have thought. Maybe I am wrong, but if heights build over Iberia then even heights to our north may not be sufficient to prevent the UK being on the wrong side of the block? Or is a SSW force > Iberian High by default?

[Methuselah]

I posted a couple of days back how we could end up with weather from any compass direction. Equally: the vast polarisation of outcomes in 2 successive GFS runs is instructive and tells a key part of this growing (and still incipient) saga; i.e., as expected, we will see wild swings at longer range.

Indeed you did, Ian!

[pyrotech]

Not necessarily true. The lag effect is from any variance in the TSI and yes, that is cumulative over the solar cycle. However, low/high solar activity, including short bursts, has an impact upon the Ultra Violet levels and this has been shown to promote blocking weather patterns in the NH when the levels are low. Mike Lockwood published a paper on this a couple of years ago, in this he made a connection to the colder winter of 2009/10 and speculated what the future may hold for the UK if solar levels remained as low as some predict.

I think you will find that its mostly monthly changes not short term changes and very negligable from a single m class flare. the rarer x class i am not so sure about, Although these flares are huge with the energy they emit, they are comparatively small compared to the wholesome energy given off the sun. If the SSW does not give us the cold spell we hope for then i stand by the original quote i made that it will not be due to this m Class solar flare.

i have added what NASA think of this to an appropriate thread/ forum please go there if you wish to discuss this further or to read NASA statement

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/14968-aurora-sun-activity-resources-thread/page__st__20

Edited January 5, 2013 by pyrotech

[ANYWEATHER]

Who said I was stressed- I posted a commentary on the relative poor outlook from the 12's which followed a mediocre set of 00z- backed up by the mediocre ensembles.

The problem is the thread is full of people who have either suddenly become experts or dont want to hear anything realistic said about a model unless it shows cold.

Fair enough- theres a big red ignore button over there- people use it. or post their own analysis.

FWIW the GFS 150 ensemble mean of 20 members- poor.

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-150.png?12

S

Yes Steve, but its only one run, the 12z tomorrow may well show you what you want to see.! Pointless getting hung up about computer model output predicting what we dont want to see. The 12z gfs is rather a let down for cold lovers, but Im sure its completely wrong in its later output and the weather will be probably be a whole lot different to what the 12z gfs has shown.....

[TAFKAP]

Hi steve, what are your thoughts on the recent comments with regards to increased solar flares over the next three days?

Do the models take this into account? I have definitely noticed a correlation between sunspot activity and effects on our weather

in terms of increased west to east energy when solar activity increases.

The models do not take solar flares into account and I think any more comments about solar flares should be deleted or moved to a more appropriate thread.

[ghrud]

I think part of the problem is that some are expecting too much too soon following some encouraging model runs recently. If we step back and look, the other day no real cold was being expected until mid-late month. That's not changed in my view and the posts from IF state the situation perfectly.

There will probably be an amazing pub run later showing -10 uppers and countrywide snow next weekend, but it will have to be taken with exactly the same bucket of salt as the 12z just passed!

Most sensible post I've read all day.