Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[ITSY]

For those saying that I'm disagreeing with SM, one of the most informative and well respected posters, you're wrong. I agree that this run is poor for the UK. All i'm saying is that it is 1 run, indeed 1 out of the last 3 or 4 (amidst an increasing majority of ens members and other models), suggesting other alternatives. Given where we are in the context of this pattern shift, it is too early to expect a) consistency or B) nationwide snowfests. Anyone wanting that in the next 10 days WILL be disappointed. Simple as.

[snowking]

That piece of vortex energy west of Greenland is clearly a troublemaker. It's no coincidence that better output (for cold) follows when this is shoved further west.

Yep and it has to be said this goes against this models own stratospheric indications.

Thats not to say that we don't get a disconnect between the Stratosphere/Troposphere, but with the MJO heading into phase 7 too, any runs taking the PV closer to Greenland (and especially the ones which reform it altogether) look suspect at the present time.

Not a great run aside from some frosts through the latter part of this week, but not a foregone conclusion yet by any means

SK

Edited January 5, 2013 by snowking

[Geordiesnow]

Looks like the models are projecting rather strongly the PV dropping down the Barents/kara sea into Scandi helped along by a high pressure cell forming over the Norwegian Sea so for cold lovers, this is a good start, how the devil in the detail will play out is far from certain and no doubt we will see quite a bit of variation between runs.

The cooler shot from the West around midweek which should get rid of the anticyclone gloom is still there for midweek so a cooler outlook is on the cards, how much colder it gets is uncertain though.

Interesting times ahead, whether it will deliver or not we shall see.

[SMU]

All that effort getting your internet set up as well..........

I know what a waste of £15 for a dongle for the month.

This thread is for WHAT THE MODELS SHOW just incase people had forgotton.

The 12z shows no high level blocking, No greenland high, No scandi high- other than a few transatory features.

yes it could change, however as said at the moment its barely below average for the UK.

I note a lot of protesters in the thread-

* find a chart on the 12z GFS that has england under sub -6c AIR

* find any high res 12z GFS chart that has snow for england.

Instead of people flapping & moaning at my posts- look at what the model is saying.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Snowy Liverpool]

and on the final frame of the gfs is that possibly the start of energy feeding north into the greenland area.

i expect to see height rises in the nest few days around greenland.

I think the final frames of the GFS can be completely ignored seeing as they are going for a PV reformation over Greenland/Arctic Ocean.

[weathersupremacy]

GFS 12oz Oops must be a huge mild outlier. ECM no doubt will show Icebergs at dawn.

Ensembles will be of interest.

[MR EXTREMES]

Nick I need Prozac , where are you ?

Lets hope this a vague run I advise nobody to look at 300 +

If you don't have sufficient blocking this is what happens

Anyway maybe a outlier back for ECM

and watch and see this chart is going to be correct might aswell disscount the t192 chart and choose the t300 more likely to be correct.

[Bolton67]

Flattens out in FI T312:

As per yesterday.

T+312 ??? God sake man. Lose the negativity for one day.

[weatherguy]

Ian browns input has been fantastic but before he was ramping it up somewhat, now it looks as though to him and me that the Azores is still a problem and that jan will just be high pressure over us and cold moving into Europe. Same old. So much for my excitement and the SSW. Anyway fancy Lapland next year...??? So frustrated!

Don't mean to sound rude, but are you serious?

One run on one particular model certainly doesn't undo what all the background signals have been suggesting, as have many ensemble members and op runs over the last few days. I'm sure this will be a mild outlier, and besides, the pattern only flattens out in FI; the NH pattern is full of potential even on this run in the reliable time period.

[Methuselah]

Who'd have thought it, eh? One run from one model has failed to predict exactly what everyone wants to see. Amazing!

Edited January 5, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[IDO]

This run is a possibility. Too early to say it will happen, but it again shows that the initial SSW may not be strong enough to reset the pattern viz a viz the UK. Of course there is extreme cold at the end of FI:

But it is all on the wrong axis and the UK is under a mild flow:

We will then have to wait for the second warming in the last days of Jan for another reset.

Edited January 5, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Buzz]

Oh dear oh dear - it's at times like this when I wish that the mods would only allow the real model experts to post in this thread - that way we don't have all of the silly little emotional outbursts and toys being thrown out of prams.

[Long haul to mild]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but we were told by IF the other day to allow swings in the models until the effect of the SSW shows up in them. Therefore, I'm not taking the GFS 12z as gospel by any means, and the evolution beyond T120 is still very much up for grabs.

This run is unexciting because of the refusal of the Azores/Iberian high to budge, but I think subsequent runs will show better evolutions, maybe starting from tomorrow, which I believe is the day the zonal winds reverse, as mentioned by Nick S.

[lord stratus]

Some agreeing with Steve M, others say he's insane for making such comments.

I have to say I'm with Steve M on this. Unless someone can explain how you get an easterly or northerly from that chart on 15th

Balearic islands get snow showers though

The problem is that each run is being taken as gospel. When it looks to be going pear shaped the wind up merchants jump on it (no names mentioned) if the cap fits as they say!

Anyway 15th to 18th jan for the good stuff.

[chionomaniac]

Who'd have thought it, eh? One run from one model has failed to predict exactly what everyone wants to see. Amazing!

I'm laughing!

[tonbridgemole]

Way out in Fl.....But it looks like the cold is going to drop down right over us...better late then never

[ITSY]

Ian F said yesterday that the models will swing wildly as they struggle to get to grips with whats happening. It may end up mild, may end up cold, but that is exactly what is happening right now. I fear for the sanity of some who seem so fragile as to get so upset over 1 run from 1 model which doesn't give everyone the desired outcome. Honestly. From posters of such experience and worth, I've come to expect more level headidness.

[Met4Cast]

Yup the 12z operational isn't the best, for us here in the UK anyway. But Hemispherically it's brilliant, the PV is pretty much smashed to pieces. I'm waiting to see where the ensembles stand before making a judgement, why everyone is looking for detail this far out anyway is beyond me.

Relax. Background signals are falling into place, the models probably aren't picking up on these properly just yet. Not to mention how poorly the models handle any pattern changes.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Daniel Smith

[bobbydog]

i dont see how anyone can be worried by, or have any faith in, any one run at the moment.

with ensemble scatter like that, i'll be putting sledge runners on my sun-lounger, to be on the safe side...

[virtualsphere]

Should the strengthening PV around Greenland be present when we have an upcoming SSW? I dont think so, but its Fi so no worries!

Good point. I've started to follow the 12z and save one particular chart each day for 14th Jan to see how the models cope with this evolution. If the SSW modelling and forecast effects on the troposphere are correct I would be more inclined to trust yesterdays 12z than today's at this range given where the PV is modelled.

Yesterday

Today

[BristolBlizzard]

Flattens out in FI T312:

As per yesterday.

you love mild so i guess your happy :0)

[on the coast]

Correct me if I am wrong but the warming has only just started so the charts showing at the moment will look very different early next week? Surely Tuesday or Wednesday before we get an idea of where and what the cold will do.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Who'd have thought it, eh? One run from one model has failed to predict exactly what everyone wants to see. Amazing!

Hilarious! Winter is over...

[cooling climate]

GFS 12Z a mild outlier? you bet.Deep vortex in FI absolute cobblers.

A wobble from the 12z operational which it is prone to do.

Must admit I quite like the 12z UKMO pitty the model never went further.

[IDO]

CFS more promising for cold:

courtesy:

Forecast from US generated model Jan 15-25 for Europe. pic.twitter.com/5ldia5hC

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi)

January 5, 2013