Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[on the coast]

Seen enough of the ECM now in the reliable to be happy. Very good run and very differnet to the GFS.

[Adam lufc]

It doesn't matter if there's a massive attic high! If it doesn't affect us then it's irrelevant.

[nick sussex]

At 120hrs the ECM looks better upstream than the GFS.

So maybe the GFS was just throwing out an underwhelming run to annoy us!

[itsnowjoke]

At 120hrs the ECM looks better upstream than the GFS.

So maybe the GFS was just throwing out an underwhelming run to annoy us!

yeah probably it can see us reaching for a bottle of prozac...

[Long haul to mild]

Here's my take on this evenings GFS run (12Z) POST 192 !

Control run, gives us a dry boring run, with High pressure over the UK throughout the entire run from 192 - 384

Operational sinks the High and we end up zonal or ever so slightly cold zonal

edit * when I use the word ''dire'' I mean it from a cold and snow lovers point of view only

Run 1 gives us a Northerly which would only be good for those along the East Coasts

Run 2 is a snowmegeddon of epic proportions

Run 3 seems keen to give us South Easterly's and although the 850 uppers are not freezing, I should imagine surface cold would be present

Run 4 would deliver a short lived decent snow event before becoming cold zonal

Run 5 would predominantly be cold zonal

Run 6 follows the Operational, sinks the high and back to zonal

Run 7 is dire, and would put us right back to where we were before Xmas

Run 8 is also dire and puts us firmly back to square one

Run 9 is also dire ..back to square one again

Run 10 is again another poor run and gives us cold zonality

Run 11 is much better giving us snow potential and 2 attempts at an Easterly

Run 12 is dire, zonal back to square 1

Run 13 is probably one of the better runs for sustained cold with a north easterly for most of the run from 192-384

Run 14 would deliver, but resets to zonal right at the end of the run..a bit hit n miss this one

Run 15 would be great, a nice Easterly and keeps the potential all the way through to + 384

Run 16 is a mess, cold but dry and eventually a N/S split

Run 17 is predominantly zonal with a brief northerly and back to zonal

Run 18 is pure eye candy, with a persistent Easterly and then a reload

Run 19 is a mixed bag, cold, dry and ends up zonal

Run 20 follows the control run with High pressure over the UK throughout.

So all in all I think there's good reason for people to be disappointed tonight, it looks to me as if the majority of the runs want to push the reset button and keep us in a zonal feed.

but there is still reason for hope with a good (if fewer) number of runs giving us what we want....what will the ECM bring ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=2&ech=276&mode=0&carte=0

I'll take Number 2, I'm not greedy

[MR EXTREMES]

looks nice

[Panayiotis]

Time to break out the BOM !

It is indeed looking superb!

[chionomaniac]

At 120hrs the ECM looks better upstream than the GFS.

So maybe the GFS was just throwing out an underwhelming run to annoy us!

I'm still laughing.

[Weathizard]

Very nice ECM. Consistent and nice Scandi high.

[Panayiotis]

We now sit and wait for that cold pool to head our way!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?05-0

Better orientation of the shortwave attack combined with the deep CAA over europe- means that the 144 has better prospects-

S

Edited January 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[on the coast]

OMG here it comes again!!!!

[ChartViewer]

ECM168

[MR EXTREMES]

the ecm looks like heading in a much better direction.

nick sussex not herd much from the NOAA lately be nice to see there thoughts on this.

i think gfs is going in the rightish direction but not nailed.

[Tim Bland]

That little low to the SW on the ecm at 144hrs is an interesting feature! Could be the trigger we need if it goes SE to drag the really cold uppers east?! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Get in! Could be cold and snowy this time next week if this run came off!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Edited January 5, 2013 by Tim Bland

[Panayiotis]

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

I'll take Number 2, I'm not greedy

You're, wait for it...... greeny! hahaha ;)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Samedi 12 Janvier undercutter! think thats what an undercut is? saw earlier in thread being compared to Feb 12? would be fantastic that not often I see 9cms of snow

[MR EXTREMES]

t168 ecm blinding brillank i bank it now please.

Edited January 5, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Snowmad79]

http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?05-0

Better orientation of the shortwave attack combined with the deep CAA over europe- means that the 144 has better prospects-

S

Haha Caught that post before the edit... spoke to soon matey ?

[Long haul to mild]

ECM nice at 168; Azores high ridges towards Greenland, LP heads SE towards France......

Edited January 5, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[Panayiotis]

As expected the cold is coming our way, still out at 168hrs so could still change but the overall pattern looks promising.

Anyone who wants some -8C uppers then? That little low will give us in the south some hefty snow showers, also look to the west, WAA into Greenland! We could be looking at a greenland high at the end of this run.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Panayiotis

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010512/ECH1-168.GIF?05-0

much better ECM- infact the best run of the day - on a par with the BOM.

Not the 2 important things-

* shortwave track moving ESE- instead of GFS ENE

* Vertical advection North in the atlantic instead of NE.

ECM follows the BOM 12s

S

[Buzz]

And the model thread's rollercoaster mood takes an upward swing ..........

[snowmadchrisuk]

ECMWF at +168 - Snow heaven

[suxer]

I'm still laughing.

What about ?