Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[Weathizard]

UKMO backs the GFS. Game on. Not sure if we'll get as good as this mornings FI though! Not that it matters at this range!

[cold snap]

the most eagerly awaited ecm in history

[Troubleatmill]

Now we really want to see that low out west undercut and BOOM! locked in cold with Snow already down for lots of folk in uk

Edited January 8, 2013 by Nick JB

[Anti-Mild]

Not to count my chickens before they are frozen, but to have these synoptics in the higher resolutions is amazing, and not to labour the point but the effects of the SSW have yet to be felt!!!

This cold spell could lay some excellent groundwork for what could potentially be a very cold end to the month and beyond!

[Southender]

Get your rulers out and try and draw a straighter line of WAA.

[Waterspout]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-162.png?12

if that varifies expect sub -2 maximas in the east & south

S

-6 Over Snowfields off S. Wales at 15:00. -1 & -2 more widely

[UV-RAY]

-10 uppers knocking on the door in the SE, this is turning into an epic run.

[bradymk]

great 2 runs so far, i got a quick question for anyone who can answer it, the low approaching from the west has a less favourable tilt with the winds not SE like they were on the 6z, but would this not matter as the pattern in the 12z GFS will go on to promote height rises to our N/NE into FI because of the vertical isobars/WAA? Edit: recent charts have just shown me the answer ;-)

Edited January 8, 2013 by bradythemole

[Rocheydub]

Did I really see the word "snowtastic" in a MetOffice release from Fergie in an earlier post (I realise they weren't subscribing to it necessarily, but just the use of the word was brilliant).

Please be careful. It wasn't a Met O release, it was a tongue in cheek comment from the man, (not the organisation) regarding the possible outcome of a run verifying!

We don't want Ian being quoted and misquoted in the national media now, do we? I hold his input too highly to allow anything to push him away from here!

[Dampdorset82]

BOOM UKMO joins the Greenland High Atlantic Block party

Will be interesting to look at the Fax charts

[Southender]

Last high res chart.

Who cares about the rest.

Fan blooming tastic.

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

Please be careful. It wasn't a Met O release, it was a tongue in cheek comment from the man, (not the organisation) regarding the possible outcome of a run verifying!

We don't want Ian being quoted and misquoted in the national media now, do we? I hold his input too highly to allow anything to push him away from here!

I was being tongue in cheek myself... and Ian's comments are hugely valuable. But he did say it was Met Office informal briefing and put it in quote marks, hence my surprise at the choice of word!

[High Altitude]

lovely

Can anyone explain (to a keen learner) the excitement with this chart. Looks good if you live in Paris but to me we seem to be under a dry high pressure and slack flow. Is it because of potential and heights to north west or is that kink instability that will cause shower activity?

[Panayiotis]

Okay so we are back into the easterly for round 2 lol!

Fi looking as mouth watering as the 06z! Just lovely!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Tim Bland]

Still no Sign of Ian B's backtrack by GFS Realy hope the ecm comes onboard tonight. I feel the GFS might be overcoocking it slightly but there is plenty of margin for error. GFS has been quite consistent over the last few days for a significant snow risk this weekend so I would say we are nearly there for at least some places to see the white stuff over the weekend

[Southender]

Oh go on then...

Just for fun.

[Anti-Mild]

Look at that beautiful E'ly at +240! That's 3 consecutive runs with a similar outcome at that range! The SE is going to FREEZE!!!

[Wilxy]

This run is unbelievable even FI is amazing even better with heights now building towards scandi and greenland.

[Ali1977]

If ECM says yes this weekend, this place will go nuts. The daily express will need a supplement !!!

[Panayiotis]

Look at that beautiful E'ly at +240! That's 3 consecutive runs with a similar outcome at that range! The SE is going to FREEZE!!!

I think we all are!

[TEITS]

We have had 3 GFS operationals today which have all been much colder than the ensemble mean and yet charts like below continue to appear in these operationals.

Running out of words to describe these runs!

[EML Network]

I'm in awe...just imagine folks, if things don't suddenly go horribly wrong at the 11th hour, there's a good chance many of us could be basking in the joys of snow falling from the sky in just 5 days time ..if the models are still showing what they are now...this time tomorrow I am going to get the sledge out of the attic and get the champers....out of the local off licenses fridge :-)

To think it could all start on Saturday morning.

And even us in the snow starved Southern Central Coastal regions, might just get lucky too...it's times like this I am grateful for having a fair amount of elevation IMBY..the hours between now and when the ECM come out are going to drag !!..if the ECM comes on board...then we would be in a position where all the big 3 would be giving us snow POTENTIAL this weekend !!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Interesting, five out of the last seven GFS operational runs have thrown up utterly classic synoptics with blocking centred around Iceland-Greenland.

Not to be taken too literally but this is the kind of tropospheric response that this SSW *could* produce:

[MisfitDog3]

Look at the beautiful at 240?!?! Hmmm...FI is FI whatever it shows.

[tight isobar]

Óh, yes,,,,,even myself is starting to get carried away by now. Strong feelings of output mód agree immenent great run again.ECM, may well join the party, v,soon..........