Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[-uksnow-]

Once again an astonishing ECM, GFS was a great back track on the 12z - should be more to come from in the 18z

Ensemles for ECM will be interesting

at t96 that low, providing it heads the way it indicated it would be (S/SE'wards) could bring snow down the spine of the country. Oh and B&Q had 'Be careful on snow" signs around today.

Perhaps mystic piers is going to be right....

[Cal]

Possibly one of the best ECM runs I have seen in a long, long time for snow amounts, risky situations, but huge potential for some serious snowfall if this run verifies!

[goosey007]

Wasn't there one like that for 1962/63 winter? I remember someone digging out an east—>west cross Atlantic flow which was just like t168.

Yes would give my right hand for this scenario...but its deep into FI ..chances maybe 25/30% ??

[liam300]

Can I ask why were looking 240 FI when it cannot get a trend at 72.

[weatherguy]

Could I have an update (simple) on the GFS.When I went to bed this morning people were fretting about it holding onto its lonely stance and possibly being correct,having just got to work whats the latest and is there a model etc due out soon?

It's backed down a bit from its earlier output which is promising, while the ECM has maintained its stance on the SW going south east. So, probability of the cold option being correct has increased in my view since yesterday, but until we have the GFS fully on board it can't be a certainty!

[Just Below Zero]

Could I have an update (simple) on the GFS.When I went to bed this morning people were fretting about it holding onto its lonely stance and possibly being correct,having just got to work whats the latest and is there a model etc due out soon?

It has changed but now finds it even more of a distance away than it was before.

Someone said this morning that GFS was like an elephant walking around in a chaotic Met Office in Exeter. But its alright now they found out it was only Dumbo!

[weather eater]

.

A very fragile evolution, with minor shifts taking the pattern in another direction.

The same could be said for the GFS, knife edge stuff and I have to say foolish to try and call.

[Supacell]

Can I ask why were looking 240 FI when it cannot get a trend at 72.

Because its like looking at a hot, naked woman even though it may never happen

[Iceni]

As a segment of ex-vortex is just north of the Scottish coast at t240, would that mean polar lows might form from it and track down the North Sea?

[cfallon]

Matt Hugo - twitter

The 12z ECM is an absolute snow-fest of a run! Jeez if that verifies it maintains the cold but a major risk of snow with it.

7:03pm - 10 Jan 13

[weather is fun]

looking at the ecm 12z run i would say us north of birmingham can forget about snowfall anyone agree

[Cloud 10]

The Artic high is a beauty and like you say, pv sinks south and could influence UK down the line, and well it would get even colder. I wonder where this fits in the ens.

I think it will fit in nicely with the ensembles.

Certainly fits in with the 00z ensemble mean anomalies at 192 hrs.

12z ecm operational.. 00z ens mean..

[Heisenberg]

So forgetting FI, do we actually know where things are for this weekend? Still no model agreement is there? (Genuine question as I am on mu phone so can't see)

Edited January 10, 2013 by lloydyd

[Duane S.]

A stonkingly stonking ECM, almost perfection for snow snow snow. As Nick S quite rightly says high risk but what reward if that came off? I wouldn't be surprised to see the trend for the low(s) to trundle on a more southerly track come T+0, we may lose out on snowmagadon but will win with the cold pattern reinforcing. I think we have to be realistic though and see this as a fairly extreme snowy version of what could be BUT... plausible.

Somebody nailed my thoughts on the GFS earlier, it rarely does a massive switch, it's takes little steps away from what it had previously been so adament about and today we have seen that in the 06z followed thankfully now by the 12z. Maybe they program it that way so it doesn't lose as much face

Also, IF we can get something like the ECM in place for next week that could be a double treat because all I can see after that is increased HLB potential.

[Floatylight]

Well ive had my spats with Ian Brown but i personally think he and the GFS have this nailed unfortunately.

There has been a pretty big jump from the ECM overnight IMHO.

Anyone denying the moce towards GFS this morning since the ecm12z yesterday is in denial IMO.

QUOTE

Sorry can you explain why you think we should be looking at the gfs above other soloutions,please as i dont understand why you have made this statement,after such consistancy from the ecm.

I am starting to find all this a bit confusing.

It just helps if more detail is used as to the why and hows along with these statements.

Many thanks x

[BlueHedgehog074]

One issue I can see with that ECMWF 144 hour run is that if the heights to the North become less weaker on future runs, and that if the whole pattern was a little further North, we could easily become influenced by Westerly winds on the Southern part of Low Pressure systems.

(black circle showing how kinda close we could be to being influenced by Westerly winds if we see Northward ajustments)

This would probably then mean Southern areas would be liable to become less cold with rain or sleet perhaps more likely (unless the Westerly winds were from a particularly cold origin, or had more of a Northerly element to them). But even then, if the Northward adjustments were slight, some northern areas, at least, could still hold onto colder air.

Also, if it goes the way the GFS 12Z shows, then even with systems going further North, we could still end up being cold/cool anyway, especially thanks to some reasonable amplification shown throughout that run with an adequate amount of cold/cool air wrapped around Low Pressure systems that track South-East/East. Plus, the fact there's Low heights consistantly going into Europe (helped with the farily favourable tracking on the Low Pressure systems) is encouraging. Just like shown in this example here for next Friday into Saturday:

Considering the ECMWF is continuining to show an Easterly/North-Easterly/Northerly influence on its runs does make me wonder we will see the GFS gradually becoming more and more ECMWFish. My only slight fear still is I can't help but feel the blocking to the North could still do with being a little more powerful, otherwise there is still that chance that we could see the ECMWF becoming more GFSish instead (and I know, to be fair, the GFS's runs shouldn't be completely ignored). The GEM does also support the GFS in some ways, although has the Low Pressure systems being slightly further North than the GFS near and around the 144 hour period with milder air trying to creep into South-Western areas:

Will be amusing to see how things continue to evolve for later next week.

Edited January 10, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[Yorlum11]

Is there any precip charts for the ECM?

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Epic 168 hr chart from the ECM, which is fast becoming the favourite weather model. Has anything like that ever verified?

[Dean E]

Just as the 12z GFS makes small movements towards ECM and other models, the ECM 12z goes and produces this...

Its like a game of cat and mouse at the moment, thats if the GFS follows todays 12z...

SM

[MattH]

Essex Weather Center on twitter keep updates on what it's showing. Thanks to Dan for the link.

https://twitter.com/EssexWeather

I'd like to know how they have access to it to be honest as I know of no other company in the UK that has this information from the UKMO...Of which would probably cost a fortune as per ECMWF information.

Matt.

[phil nw.]

We are still having to delete one line off topic stuff.

Please use other threads if you are not discussing what the models are showing.

General chat or views in here

let`s keep this thread clear for some decent reading-thanks all.

[Long haul to mild]

Netweather presents!

"Model Implosion"

starring:

The GFS

The ECM

And the UKMO

....in an epic battle of good (cold) v evil (mild).

In a rip-roaring edge of the seat thriller, uk cold lovers including Nick S, Steve M and TEITS come together to fight "The Scupperer" (played by Ian Brown) and his army of shortwaves who, along with a powerful northerly tracking jet stream are trying to finish off the hope of countrywide snow.

At every turn snow forecasts are dealt a blow by yet another lone GFS run but together with legendary internet forecasters, the Euro models and stratospheric backing, the coldies will not give in easily.

Only time will tell who will prevail but this will be a fight to the finish and to the victor, THE SPOILS.

Also starring:

A load of flip-flopping lesser international models

Lots more great knowledgable weather bods from the Net Weather forums

And a load of contradictory melodramatic ham actors (also from the forums)

Now showing on your local PC / Laptop / Mobile device. Admission free!

[SMU]

A stonkingly stonking ECM, almost perfection for snow snow snow. As Nick S quite rightly says high risk but what reward if that came off? I wouldn't be surprised to see the trend for the low(s) to trundle on a more southerly track come T+0, we may lose out on snowmagadon but will win with the cold pattern reinforcing. I think we have to be realistic though and see this as a fairly extreme snowy version of what could be BUT... plausible.

Somebody nailed my thoughts on the GFS earlier, it rarely does a massive switch, it's takes little steps away from what it had previously been so adament about and today we have seen that in the 06z followed thankfully now by the 12z. Maybe they program it that way so it doesn't lose as much face

Also, IF we can get something like the ECM in place for next week that could be a double treat because all I can see after that is increased HLB potential.

that be me-

the 00z had no energy dropping south, the 06z had some dropping south but the pattern didnt change, now the 12z has half changed the pattern & I fully expect the 18z to go the whole hog-

I will present the 00z, the 06z, the 12z & 18z ensembles later & they will summerise the GFS trend of the day- the temp curve dropping flatter each run so that for london it maxes out at -5c.

I could list all the superlatives for the ECM, but it is the holy grail which is perfect surface cold accompanied by PPN piling in fromn the west getting undercut by colder air producing copious amounts of snow....

It almost makes this weekends snow flurries look tame- however if I can nick a cm out of sat night then this will effect the surface temp sunday in prep for the snow monday,--

Mondays track from the ECM-

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/130110_1200_108.png this is the exit point

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/130110_1200_108.png -5c uppers

S

[Harsh Climate]

Well no real downgrade this afternoon which is what I thought would probably happen, glad to be wrong about this!

*But the ECM backs away from the killer north easterly/easterly to an extremly fragile but potentially VERY SNOWY run. On face value it's very good but nearer to the time a few subtle differences (like the lows tracking further north/north east than shown) and we would end up in cold zonality with a lot of rain/sleet/wet snow..

I guess some of the exceptional snowfalls in the past have come from set-ups like this, the sort where the midlands are measuring snowfall with a 1 meter ruler ; ).

*Ukmo at after 144h could have the atlantic pushing in or cold easterlies?

*Gfs poor still but not dire like earlier runs, a step in the direction.

So although things are looking very promising, we are not over the hill yet so keep those sledges on hold just for now..

Edited January 10, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[NickSomerset]

I know its a bit far out but the "Jet Stream|" is where it should be ..... well usual place for winter anyways..

... dont ignore the jet stream..

Edited January 10, 2013 by NickSomerset