North West England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z Onwards

[Brass_Monkeys]

Very, very light graupel falling in the last 10 mins, looks to have stopped now. Like a sparse sprinkling of icing sugar.

[Darren Bown]

Just had a slight dusting of snow here from the light snow that formed earlier. Quite a pleasant surprise!

[SparkleS]

Is it me or Is it cloudy here? any chance of snow out of that anyone? I kindve feeling it is gonna snow here.

Its cloudy about 1 degree, frosty and it keeps trying to snow, is it what you call graupel? Little tiny gritty white things falling down every now and again, must admit, it certainly looks like a snowy sky here!

[Darren Bown]

The fact that this light snow pepped from practically nothing shows how much moisture is wrapped around this low. There is so much ice around even though the temps only got to -2 or -3! There could be more light showers before 2 or 3 before the moisture moves to the SE.

[The Northern Ramper]

A few flakes in the wind, that's it.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Looking at the latest radar the showers ain't half pepped up out of nothing. Convective at its best.

[Backtrack]

HUGE downgrade regarding snowfall potential on Friday & Saturday on the 06z. Low is deeper and cuts under the block much quicker. The uppers have no chance of fighting back, they're pushed eastwards & cannot fight back.

Would be a serious rain event in the west with flooding possible, east would get buried in snow. Temperature profiles look supportive of freezing rain, surface temperatures of around -2 or even -3C as the front arrives, upper air too warm to support snow, horrible event should the 06Z verify, East would get some serious amounts of snow.

Seriously, how much does it take for our region to get a decent snow event!?

Edited January 15, 2013 by Backtrack

[pip22]

HUGE downgrade regarding snowfall potential on Friday & Saturday on the 06z. Low is deeper and cuts under the block much quicker. The uppers have no chance of fighting back, they're pushed eastwards & cannot fight back.

Would be a serious rain event in the west with flooding possible, east would get buried in snow. Temperature profiles look supportive of freezing rain, surface temperatures of around -2 or even -3C as the front arrives, upper air too warm to support snow, horrible event should the 06Z verify, East would get some serious amounts of snow.

Seriously, how much does it take for our region to get a decent snow event!?

According to weatheronline things are looking good!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130115

[R.P. McMurphy]

As attached, look at the convective snow just appeared.

[Backtrack]

According to weatheronline things are looking good!

http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20130115

Skip to the T+72 chart. Uppers of -4C, that's very marginal, borderline rain, doubt it'd be of snow on the coast from this chart.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

East would hit the holy grail as usual though.

[Darren Bown]

Although light, that stuff over eastern England seems quite organised compared to what I was expecting from the BBC forecast this morning, if there is potential across NW England as seen with that convective precipitation then certainly eastern areas of the region could get something around lunchtime?

Edited January 15, 2013 by Darren Bown

[Backtrack]

Although light, that stuff over eastern England seems quite organised compared to what I was expecting from the BBC forecast this morning, if there is potential across NW England as seen with that convective precipitation then certainly eastern areas of the region could get something around lunchtime?

Good for the east of the region & higher ground as usual. Again, Manchester is the dividing line, just isn't great. In an ideal world, the cold air would push back west against the LP undercutting, but nope.

[Snow free zone]

HUGE downgrade regarding snowfall potential on Friday & Saturday on the 06z. Low is deeper and cuts under the block much quicker. The uppers have no chance of fighting back, they're pushed eastwards & cannot fight back.

Would be a serious rain event in the west with flooding possible, east would get buried in snow. Temperature profiles look supportive of freezing rain, surface temperatures of around -2 or even -3C as the front arrives, upper air too warm to support snow, horrible event should the 06Z verify, East would get some serious amounts of snow.

Seriously, how much does it take for our region to get a decent snow event!?

Nothing unusual about that. Living near the coast you should never expect snow, that is almost always the case. If it snows its a bonus.

Looking at the GFS anyway it to me looks like its bringing the warm air in too quickly.

Even though i haven't got any snow i am finding watching it all unfold very interesting. This run almost mirrors the 18z run from last night - look at all the cold air in the N Atlantic flooding east the exact same thing was shown last night - ok its 1 run but it has happened on 2 of the last 3 op runs from the GFS. Wheres all that cold air coming from, seems unusual to me to have that much cold air bottled up over the N Atlantic, is it part of the collapsed vortex ?

[Backtrack]

Nothing unusual about that. Living near the coast you should never expect snow, that is almost always the case. If it snows its a bonus.

Looking at the GFS anyway it to me looks like its bringing the warm air in too quickly.

Even though i haven't got any snow i am finding watching it all unfold very interesting. This run almost mirrors the 18z run from last night - look at all the cold air in the N Atlantic flooding east the exact same thing was shown last night - ok its 1 run but it has happened on 2 of the last 3 op runs from the GFS. Wheres all that cold air coming from, seems unusual to me to have that much cold air bottled up over the N Atlantic, is it part of the collapsed vortex ?

Yes, looks like the vortex is moving to the S of Canada with the cold air bottled up inside it, I guess it has no where to go with higher pressure over the Arctic so it's spilling cold air all the way across the Atlantic. Polar westerlies are always interesting for our region, can provide a decent fall of snow, although a reload is more likely to come from the North East as we see height rises over Scandinavia...

[snowdrifter]

I actually thought we had a chance on Friday, but BT thank you for your sobering thoughts and keeping my feet on the ground!!

[R.P. McMurphy]

Just a quick reminder..... ITS TUESDAY! The models will flip and flop around until the day comes, we have seen this countless time, so dont get hung up on one run! Besides, maybe the coastal areas will get rain from todays output, but further inland wont... No huge downgrade what so ever. Bit OTT>

[Snow free zone]

Yes, looks like the vortex is moving to the S of Canada with the cold air bottled up inside it, I guess it has no where to go with higher pressure over the Arctic so it's spilling cold air all the way across the Atlantic. Polar westerlies are always interesting for our region, can provide a decent fall of snow, although a reload is more likely to come from the North East as we see height rises over Scandinavia...

You never know, its away in la la land but you never know ......

Still reckon the block wont be shifted as easily as the 6z shows. These things often get shunted South, like people are saying its such a long time since anything like this has happened the models seem to be playing catch up.

Perhaps the BBC need to roll out Ian McCaskill and Bill Giles for this week.

[Darren Bown]

The 6z has often had an eastward advancement of cold weather. Such a massive change in one run may be an anomaly.

[pip22]

the sun is out and the frost is melting quickly.

[Interitus]

Don't think much has changed actually, GFS weekend was already looking like less cold would make its way in. The weak front shower chance on Thursday is fading a bit - http://91.121.16.5/m...54-779.GIF?15-6

Friday morning looks snowy - http://91.121.16.5/m...75-779.GIF?15-6

Saturday night / Sunday snow to rain, some high ground may get heavy fall, but north west not missing out particularly - http://91.121.16.5/m...20-779.GIF?15-6

[Backtrack]

I actually thought we had a chance on Friday, but BT thank you for your sobering thoughts and keeping my feet on the ground!!

It's 3 days away and precipitation charts are never reliable more than 24hrs away, all I am saying is that to me it looks like a repeat of Sunday night albeit without the mild sector, this time the Atlantic just pushes in too fast and too powerfully meaning the cold struggles to fight back.

Wait for the 12z's as they have extra data which is surely needed. Fergie last night said that Friday/Saturday is causing havoc with the Met Office as they simply do not know what will happen.

[Darren Bown]

Stuff in the east is dying a death, looks like a dry day as forecasted now!

[Lesley Johnson]

snowing swirling around in Stockport with blue sky's ?

[Bartlett Low]

6z usually the poorest of the days runs imo.

Anyway we know it will likely pan out like Sundays "event".

Snowing in south Stockport at the moment btw

[pip22]

Look at this: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jan/15/snow-low-temperatures-uk-forecasters the deep freeze could last until st valentine's day. According to this newspaper.