North West England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z Onwards

[Gary_L]

I actually thought we had a chance on Friday, but BT thank you for your sobering thoughts and keeping my feet on the ground!!

If the 06z came off inland NW England would see an awful lot of snow through Friday and into Saturday.

[Ian Brown]

Very interesting output, especially the UKMO & ECM, anyone old enough will know that there the recipe is there for potential large snowfall totals, even with the attendant risks that such a set-up produces.

Give me this any day over some chasing some fantasy easterly that may disappear at T72 and possibly deliver diddly squat for much of the region anyway !

[snowdrifter]

Very interesting output, especially the UKMO & ECM, anyone old enough will know that there the recipe is there for potential large snowfall totals, even with the attendant risks that such a set-up produces.

Give me this any day over some chasing some fantasy easterly that may disappear at T72 and possibly deliver diddly squat for much of the region anyway !

Agreed Ian. Do you see this as potential Feb '96? I know that coastal areas such as mine have reduced potential and dew points will play a big part, but I really want to expect little and be surprised rather than the other way around.

[V for Very Cold]

Friday seems to be nominated as a day of interest snow wise according to the lastest NW forecast

[snowdrifter]

Friday seems to be nominated as a day of interest snow wise according to the lastest NW forecast

Is that on BBC? Any more details V?

edit - do you mean NW North-West or NetWeather?? sorry!

Edited January 15, 2013 by snowdrifter

[trickydicky]

These are potentially our 'jackpot' synoptics. As with any jackpot, it isn't easy to win, and you risk getting nothing at all, but if you get lucky you win big. This is the kind of situation that gave us our February 1996 blizzard, the smaller version in February 2001 and the snow associated with 1947. Our region needs the fronts coming in from the west, an easterly would have to be the king of all easterlies to effect us, and most northerlies, except for when they line up perfectly with a little north west kink over the Irish see a la 2009/10, are no goes for us due to our shelter by hills to the north. Strong cold synoptics most often deliver sunshine for us. Don't get sucked into the 'this is a massive downgrade' lark on the model thread, most of the commentators in there live in the south east and don't stand to gain from these situations, they want a channel low for its snow and then the easterly reboot it would cause, but that would miss us to the south and then the easterly would leave us dry. We have the chance to hit the jackpot here, that’s got to be worth a roll of the dice. We might lose, get half an hours sleet and a day of rain; but we might not.

Edited January 15, 2013 by trickydicky

[chris78]

Very interesting output, especially the UKMO & ECM, anyone old enough will know that there the recipe is there for potential large snowfall totals, even with the attendant risks that such a set-up produces.

Give me this any day over some chasing some fantasy easterly that may disappear at T72 and possibly deliver diddly squat for much of the region anyway !

Hi Ian....surely extreme west coasts would (as usual) struggle from the currently modelling snow wise?

[Maz]

Very interesting output, especially the UKMO & ECM, anyone old enough will know that there the recipe is there for potential large snowfall totals, even with the attendant risks that such a set-up produces.

Give me this any day over some chasing some fantasy easterly that may disappear at T72 and possibly deliver diddly squat for much of the region anyway !

Sunday and Monday ended up as enjoyable snow events in Ramsbottom, despite ending up as rain still got a complete covering on grass today, and an icy mess on other surfaces!

I think far too early to speculate too much about Friday or beyond. Potential battleground scenarios are exciting as Ian says. But models always seem to struggle with Atlantic systems moving into cold blocks. Things could vary hugely from the fronts sliding SW and never even reaching our region, to the Atlantic overpowering the cold giving a quick wet breakdown, or just maybe hitting the jackpot.

P.S. Trickydicky has just summed up my thoughts far better than I could!!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Maz

[snowdrifter]

Hi Ian....surely extreme west coasts would (as usual) struggle from the currently modelling snow wise?

Hi Chris, do a youtube search for blackpool snow 1996 if you want to see what is poss. Sorry on phone and can't link. Personally I'm going to TRY to expect the low to slide SE or to just get rain/sleet, to avoid disappointment, but with a very quiet background knowledge that it COULD be very different.

[Snow free zone]

GFS 6z ensembles keep temps below average until the end of the run. No sign of any milder weather, granted it may get less cold but it is due to remain below average.

Fingers crossed for the weekend.

[chiffer]

Dont think the meto will be giving much away until late Thursday chances are it will be a s Wales, sw event. One good thing if that does happen is that the UK will probably hold onto the cold for longer. Long way to go yet though!

Edited January 15, 2013 by chiffer

[R.P. McMurphy]

Friday into Saturday is certainly looking promising for the North West & North England, especially Scotland. Could be a real dumping if this comes off.

[johnwirral]

BBC - South West and South Wales look like getting hit on Friday, will there be anything for us on Saturday?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21027548

[Ian Brown]

Hi Ian....surely extreme west coasts would (as usual) struggle from the currently modelling snow wise?

It may be an 'all snow' event if comes off except for those in Western coastal Wales and Devon/Cornwall as the LP centre slips SE and there is no mild sector to come across the country.

BBC - South West and South Wales look like getting hit on Friday, will there be anything for us on Saturday?

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21027548

The GFS ensembles are pretty solid that the orientation will be nearer vertical than what the METO are currently looking at, so there are time for changes either way.

[NickyB]

Sometimes I hate living on the coast :-( :-( :-( sniff sniff

[Ian Brown]

Agreed Ian. Do you see this as potential Feb '96? I know that coastal areas such as mine have reduced potential and dew points will play a big part, but I really want to expect little and be surprised rather than the other way around.

I think it and the weekend are a potential Feb 96 because I don't see it being as easy for the fronts to make it across the UK mainland as the GFS suggests.

[V for Very Cold]

Is that on BBC? Any more details V?

edit - do you mean NW North-West or NetWeather?? sorry!

Sorry - I meant NetWeather - should have been more specific

[AderynCoch]

So far this looks to me a lot like a repeat of the immensly disappointing February 2012 cold spell. There were two failed battleground events for the west then - I had to avoid most of the forum for about a week!

I would say that the reason the east averages more snow than the west is because they are easily more favoured when it comes to easterly streamers and northerly topplers - two of the more common snow setups in the UK (the two most common?). I reckon the east only has a very slight advantage when it comes to battleground scenarios, as the origin of the cold air (Russia/Eastern Europe) is far away enough to render the difference in distance from the cold source negligible - Western England and Eastern England are pretty much the same distance from Russia. For the west then, all it takes is for the cold air from the east to advance just that little bit further to negate the mildness from the Atlantic - this didn't happen in February 2012, and it was terrible to watch. The fact that it seems to be happening again screams to me of rotten luck rather than normality (these aren't normal synoptics).

Marginality by definition means you win some as well as lose some, and right now the marginal west is due a win in my book. Maybe Friday will be it. Good luck everyone.

Edited January 15, 2013 by AderynCoch

[MrSunshine]

Warning out from the Met Office for Friday, wouldn't take it too seriously though at this stage seen this many time only to be downgraded day by day until the warning is eventually removed.

Issued at: 1233 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0900 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, there is the potential for a spell of snow to spread from the southwest. As winds strengthen, blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible quite widely and in some locations, especially higher ground, 15 cm are possible.

The public should be aware of the possibility of travel disruption. This warning is likely to be updated over the next few days

Edited January 15, 2013 by DaveMac82

[V for Very Cold]

Warning out from the Met Office for Friday, wouldn't take it too seriously though at this stage seen this many time only to be downgraded day by day until the warning is eventually removed.

Issued at:1233 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

Valid from:0900 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to:2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, there is the potential for a spell of snow to spread from the southwest. As winds strengthen, blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible quite widely and in some locations, especially higher ground, 15 cm are possible.

The public should be aware of the possibility of travel disruption. This warning is likely to be updated over the next few days.

well at least that is bringing it in line with NetWeather's forecast for the same period

oooppss think that was a the wrong smiley - was meant to be a happy face

[MrSunshine]

well at least that is bringing it in line with NetWeather's forecast for the same period

oooppss think that was a the wrong smiley - was meant to be a happy face

Were due a bit of luck, lets hope Friday is the day, and hopefully there's an upgrade in the next 48 hours to include the whole of the North West we all deserve a decent snow event after the disappointments of December and Sunday.

Edited January 15, 2013 by DaveMac82

[Snow free zone]

hmmm as the weather breaks down ?? could take to mean the frosty spell is going to end ?

[V for Very Cold]

hmmm as the weather breaks down ?? could take to mean the frosty spell is going to end ?

that's the million dollar question - does the atlantic break through as suggested by MetO atm, or get pushed back by the block as suggested by NetWeather... still 3 days worth of modelling to find out lololol

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I really hope there is no more correction north of that atlantic system,that would be a disaster for us but hey ho there will be changes before fri,its a catch 22,the further south the low the better for long term cold,ecm looks quite borderline for us tho

[bridgechad]

Looking like a change of something really special here in the south east of the region on Friday all being well