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North West England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z Onwards

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Winter Monsoon Rookie

Winter Monsoon

Posted
  • Location: Dukinfield 137m ASL
  • Location: Dukinfield 137m ASL
Posted

Anyone else noticed how quiet the model thread is, could it be down to the fact that those in the West are looking at a snow event whilst those in the SE and East get zilch. No talk of Easterlies or Thames streamers and day dreamers, makes a refreshing change I'd say.

Yup exactly what i thought, if this were reversed and comming from the east then the MOD thread would be chaos shok.gif however this comming friday has more potential to bring snow to a much larger part of the country than an easterly.

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cfallon Contributor

cfallon

Posted
  • Location: moorside, Oldham, Greater Manchester
  • Location: moorside, Oldham, Greater Manchester
Posted

Meto warning for snow on Friday just out for north west! :-)

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MrSunshine Contributor

MrSunshine

Posted
Posted

Anyone else noticed how quiet the model thread is, could it be down to the fact that those in the West are looking at a snow event whilst those in the SE and East get zilch. No talk of Easterlies or Thames streamers and day dreamers, makes a refreshing change I'd say.

Yep good for a change! I really do think were in the firing line Friday, Saturday & going into the new week. I just can't see the atlantic winning in this 1st attempt of an attack.

Meto warning for snow on Friday just out for north west! :-)

It was issued at 12:30pm! But a good start! :)

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MrSunshine Contributor

MrSunshine

Posted
Posted

Met Office still aren't confident of an all Snow event for us on Friday & Saturday, the dreaded word "Rain" is still in there!

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Staying cold and dry with some bright or sunny spells on Thursday, and severe overnight frost. Becoming windy with spells of rain, sleet and snow on Friday and Saturday.

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

We may get upgrades for the region yet, I feel though we will know within 24 hours the likelihood of this.

If the ECM and Ukmo are similar tonight then that is where we are heading, the Gfs is a loose cannon when modelling Atllantic lows.

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Going to be a cold'un tonight. Minima overnight temps of -7'c forecast for central areas but with snow-cover and the usual frost-hollows I suspect it may even go down further in localised areas. Woodford being the usual candidate in such a synoptic setup.

The SPINE race is now nearing the Yorks/Cumbrian border if not up to Hadrians Wall already, got to feel some sympathy for the runners out in these extremes tonight and tomorrow.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Down to 0.9c here, have to go and get the washing in or it'll start to freeze lol

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

Unbelievable drop in temperature at the moment.. falling at an astonishing -6C/hr.. ive never seen a temperature rate like this before!

I guess with this in mind, and no wind at all... -7C is fairly likely here!

Did Wirral get snow in 1996?

Yes with thunder I believe

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Snow free zone Aficionado

Snow free zone

Posted
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
Posted (edited)

If this GFS verifies we'll all need snow shovels come Friday. Shame UKMO and NAE don't seem to agree.

Such divergence so early on suggests its not nailed on yet .... i am refusing to fall for it.

EDIT: GFS has us all under a minimum of 24hrs of snow ......... but it won't happen (note reverse psychology)

Edited by Snow free zone
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

The 12z GFS is astonishing for the region. Hypothetically, 15-20cm quite widely should something like that come to pass

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SparkleS Community Regular

SparkleS

Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
Posted

If this GFS verifies we'll all need snow shovels come Friday. Shame UKMO and NAE don't seem to agree.

Such divergence so early on suggests its not nailed on yet .... i am refusing to fall for it.

EDIT: GFS has us all under a minimum of 24hrs of snow ......... but it won't happen (note reverse psychology)

Dejavu!

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Julian Newbie

Julian

Posted
  • Location: South Cornwall
  • Location: South Cornwall
Posted

The 12z GFS is astonishing for the region. Hypothetically, 15-20cm quite widely should something like that come to pass

Must....resist....urge...to......ramp.......

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

If this GFS verifies we'll all need snow shovels come Friday. Shame UKMO and NAE don't seem to agree.

Such divergence so early on suggests its not nailed on yet .... i am refusing to fall for it.

EDIT: GFS has us all under a minimum of 24hrs of snow ......... but it won't happen (note reverse psychology)

The UKMO does agree

UW72-21.GIF?15-16

with the -6 850 line close by

EDIT: make that the -10

UW72-7.GIF?15-16

Edited by CreweCold
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Snow free zone Aficionado

Snow free zone

Posted
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
Posted (edited)

The UKMO does agree

Was perhaps reading too much into that NAE chart for Thursday it looked to put the mild air right across the UK....... 1st time i've seen cold air actually pushing the mild air back whilst we are under precipitation has 1996 written all over it. BUT IT WONT HAPPEN wacko.png

Edited by Snow free zone
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MrSunshine Contributor

MrSunshine

Posted
Posted

Wow guys. 72 hrs frame on GFS 12z looks like a Feb '96 chart. Please let it be.

If we get a rerun of the Feb 96 event it will be incredible, snow fell here nonstop for 24 hours, 18 inches of snow, 8 feet Snow drifts and Blizzards though out the night! School was closed for two days!

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

If the Gfs verifies (and at t72 probability is rising) then we will be digging ourselves out at some point on Sunday.

Copious amounts of snow and strong winds.

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Snow free zone Aficionado

Snow free zone

Posted
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
Posted (edited)

Posted by Ian Ferguson in the mo thread a few mins ago.

Can I just caution re posting / taking as gospel these raw (and often useless) GFS precip/snow probability maps at this juncture. The alogorithm used for these is pretty basic, and I never even bother with them.

A far better route to understanding (at least from GFS) the PPN type prospects for any given area, plus crucial nuances of boundary layer conditions as well as aloft, is to pick-up on the profile soundings plotted for any part of the globe via the excellent http://ready.arl.noa...v/READYcmet.php (we compare these here to our UKMO-GM/NAE tephigrams).

Edited by Snow free zone
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MrSunshine Contributor

MrSunshine

Posted
Posted

If the Gfs verifies (and at t72 probability is rising) then we will be digging ourselves out at some point on Sunday.

Copious amounts of snow and strong winds.

If its still there tomorrow night its game on, otherwise until then much caution needs to be taken we've been let down so many times recently & further into the past.

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