North West England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z Onwards

[cheshire snow]

My big concern is the GFS been to over progresive,never trusted this model

However IF the UKMO and GFS verify this would be a once in a lifetime event

and a snow event from start to finish,very satisfied the way we are going at

the moment but another 36hours of watching the models before i get excited

I know Ian B is lurking on here tonight hope you dont mind me using your

catchphrase but if this happens i will be saying WTF for many a year to come

C.S

[Julian]

What's your take on the 12z ECM BT?

Not so good for us I fear, but better for prolonged cold?

[NickyB]

lol Chill Pill and sledging in Harrison Park!!

Too right :-) You should have seen the bruises on my legs after 09/10 hahaha

[SparkleS]

What happened to wedsnesdays snow event?

[MrSunshine]

lol Chill Pill and sledging in Harrison Park!!

What were the snow depths in and around Liverpool/The Wirral after the 1996 event just out of interest.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

It would be due to arrive at about 0900 so air temps might not be too bad just if it pushes the -5 line too far east

About a foot dave

[NickyB]

What were the snow depths in and around Liverpool/The Wirral after the 1996 event just out of interest.

Can I butt in? The seafront at wallasey was plastered - we had around 6" within 1/2 mile of the promenade - not sure about elsewhere as I didn't need to go snow hunting that year :-) It was all on my doorstep :-)

[pip22]

My weather app on ipad shows snow on Friday and Saturday and then sleet with 4C on Sunday.

[Backtrack]

What's your take on the 12z ECM BT?

Not so good for us I fear, but better for prolonged cold?

Fantastic 72hr chart for snow, in agreement with the UKMO & GFS. Even colder 850's fighting against the Atlantic, slightly more margin for error, with snow even to the extreme coasts.

[snowdrifter]

BBC news24 at 17:55 said n ireland wales & sw eng currently looking like where most snow might be. But would that be before latest data? I am so worried it'll go to our west through wales/west mids etc. Re-assurance anyone???

[swainclubber]

The UKmo picked it out first a couple of days ago, the ECM came on board and finally now the Gfs has firmed things up.

This is t72, any other time of year or type of weather and this would be nailed.

yeah quite right.cheers for the info.appreciated

[snowdrifter]

Fantastic 72hr chart for snow, in agreement with the UKMO & GFS. Even colder 850's fighting against the Atlantic, slightly more margin for error, with snow even to the extreme coasts.

BT you read my mind's need for some kind of re-assurance!! Amazing! Coastal whiteness here we come!!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Bt this is the forcast for me for next ten days

pic.twitter.com/W2L8X32u

— Peter Kinsey (@Kinesin_Loot)

January 15, 2013

1 pic.twitter.com/hXQFeYtC

— Peter Kinsey (@Kinesin_Loot)

January 15, 2013

http://twitter.com/Peter_kinsey/status/291256373558267904/photo/1

[Backtrack]

Bt this is the forcast for me for next ten days

http://twitter.com/P...9791360/photo/1

http://twitter.com/P...2020736/photo/1

http://twitter.com/P...8267904/photo/1

Doesn't seem too unlikely mate!

BT you read my mind's need for some kind of re-assurance!! Amazing! Coastal whiteness here we come!!

Don't hold me to that though, could all go tits up on the 18z.

[cheshire snow]

Miss Oxbury 1855

Early warning for snow Friday,then that word significent

it would seem the METO are backing the GFS 12Z

C.S

[snowdrifter]

Don't hold me to that though, could all go tits up on the 18z.

Always goes without saying mate!!

[swainclubber]

Miss Oxbury 1855

Early warning for snow Friday,then that word significent

it would seem the METO are backing the GFS 12Z

C.S

fantastic

[The snowman]

Usually we get stuff from NI anyway! Just for a bit of nostalgia does anybody remember the infamous 'will it snow in Carlisle????'

[cheshire snow]

fantastic

That warning now on meto website

C.S

EDIT

This may have already been posted

[snowdrifter]

Miss Oxbury 1855

Early warning for snow Friday,then that word significent

it would seem the METO are backing the GFS 12Z

C.S

Bet that hurt her! At first glance I thought you were you talking about a Victorian beauty contest from some country village!!

[iand61]

The words snow and significant were in Diane Oxberry's forecast again tonight.

Means sod all really as she will be in charge of operation downgrade straight after the programme but nice to hear all the same.

Seriously though it's nice to see the models looking so positive for the end of the week and over the weekend and should it come off we could be looking at a period to tell the children and grandchildren about.

It will change no doubt before the event and I won't believe any forecasts of snow until I see it falling but hopefully the curse of the North West downgrade will stay away this time.

[Backtrack]

Fergie mentioned in the model thread that the Met Office are actually backing the GFS 12z in their forecasts right now.

[cheshire snow]

Bet that hurt her! At first glance I thought you were you talking about a Victorian beauty contest from some country village!!

Bet that hurt her! At first glance I thought you were you talking about a Victorian beauty contest from some country village!!

LOL

[UV-RAY]

I would advise extreme caution at this stage, if this followed similar patterns from the past then any snow wouldn't make it past South Midlands. Now lets throw caution to the wind and start ramping as these sort of setups are a 1/25 year occurrence. If we strike gold then snow amounts could be in the region of 20-50cm depending on how many undercutting lows hit our neck of the woods, with drifting snow causing huge drifts in excess off 7-15 feet.

[loubie_4]

Fergie mentioned in the model thread that the Met Office are actually backing the GFS 12z in their forecasts right now.

Good news for us BT?