Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013 20:00hrs>

[Yarmy]

Am I probably the only person here who hopes the Atlantic powers through this weekend?

Probably. To be honest, what we've had the last couple of days would do me for the whole winter. I'm not greedy, I just like to have a proper seasonal spell each year in each season.

[masked_firefly]

Bit nervous about the on coming event if it does happen,

We've had possibly a few cm's at most here in Ipswich (most came yesterday afternoon) and this morning my area was totally gridlocked!, no falling snow, no drifts, blizzards anything!, it seems everyone is just to scared to walk their child to school!.

I ended up walking a good 4 miles as the traffic jams were so bad with two busses trapped in it I knew I wasn't going to get anywhere fast unless I used what I was given.

Eagerly awaiting to bus for the return journey now!

[Candice]

Probably. To be honest, what we've had the last couple of days would do me for the whole winter. I'm not greedy, I just like to have a proper seasonal spell each year in each season.

Ha - having to travel the A149 daily twixt Lynn and D'ham I'm finding it hard going. Have no problems with cold bright mornings like this morning but it's the ice on the roads (and of course the muppets) that give me angst. Edited January 16, 2013 by Candice

[Soaring Hawk]

Met office updated warnings for Friday. I expect these to be modified between now and Friday and wonder if the amber area will extent over our region?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map

[Methuselah]

Not funny in the slightest. I suggest you remove your post immediately.

Indeed, it's not!

Anyway, welcome to NW, flarkey... Could you pop your location into your profile, please...

[suffolkboy_]

On a brighter note, Metoffice new warning for Friday are interesting.

Looking at the Cheif Forecaster's Assessment, the risk of impact is at it's highest, but the condifence at its lowest, hence the warning falling into the yellow catagory.

Confidence is a tad higher further west hense the amber warning there.

As confidence increases it has the potential to be changed to a red warning.

Edited January 16, 2013 by MKsnowangel
to remove reply to deleted post

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. It's lovely sparkling sunshine in Ippy right now. But...it's still chilly. Wonder what Friday will bring us?

Have a good day everyone.

Edit; Just read about the awful helicopter crash in London. My thoughts are with the families of those who died. Oh, the poor pilot. Poor man. God bless him.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Keraunophile

[Bogman]

Hmmmm

From GP

Glacier Point

Glacier Point

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Posted 3 minutes ago

I think we need to start to plan contingencies for a potentially sustained and very severe spell of wintry weather, of which Friday could just be the start.

NWP is presenting a number of potential snow events next week, which could well provide substantive accumulations.

The longwave trough migrating eastwards off the eastern coast of North America is consistently being modelled by ensemble means as cutting through a developing mid Atlantic ridge mid to late next week. That provides an eddy in the flow which is likely to enhance the easterly flow off an already frigid land mass to our east and north-east.

Thereafter, the ridge could retrogress towards the NE Atlantic and Greenland bring in another surge of Arctic air from the NE. That would give us a sustained period (with snowcover for much of the UK) of below normal temperatures.

I've grabbed the 06z GEFS at day 13 which depicts the synoptic pattern with a trough firmly ensconsed over Europe and high pressure to the north.

[Timmytour]

A question.....over the years I have convinced myself that many a promising cold spell that has popped up in FI has been scuppered by the appearance of a Daily Express headline.

I must admit....I don’t keep close tabs on what is on the Daily express front page nor any other of its pages to be honest, but one thing that amazed me was, up until around 7th January, i don’t think they’d even had a story let alone a front page about what was coming.

I’m not too sure what they’ve carried since. I was wondering however...is it possible we are on the eve of a truly historic cold spell, indeed one that comes close to meeting the hype of one of those many Daily Express over-the-top headlines, without the Daily Express having actually put up an over the top headline about it???!!!

Edited January 16, 2013 by MKsnowangel
to remove reply to deleted post

[flarkey]

I'm still not convinced the snow will stretch as far east as Norfolk/Suffolk on Friday.

http://www.snow-fore.../static/uk/full

Buth then....

[saint]

Light snow flakes here.

[Iceni]

If you look right to the east of that picture you will see a tiny little bit of England sticking out into the North Sea that hasn't got any snow over it. That's my house.

Good you can tell us how much power those offshore wind turbines are producing in our hour of need.

Otherwise you can check here… http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

[Methuselah]

Light snowflakes here, too...

[Hughsey]

Snizzle here and felt extremely cold. -1.5 currently.

Excited for the prospects over the next few days, only concern is how far east the band of precipitation will get and also the weather we are left with after the event. Met Office with an interesting forecast for my location, light snow in every 3 hour slot for 48 hours from Friday Midday to Sunday Midday, will be watching the models with excited anticipation over the next couple of days .

[Eskimo]

I feel there will be some serious snowfalls over the weekend. Somwhere will reach 40-50cm in the UK.

Edited January 16, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[suffolkboy_]

Very intersting seeing showers now developing to the east of Norfolk and Suffolk. Look heavy.

Will they make it to land? Will they make it a little way inland?.....somthing to keep the radar interesting.

[Dexter29]

I feel there will be some serious snowfalls over the weekend. Somwhere will reach 40-50cm in the UK.

Me to, I think somewhere in the West Midlands.

Birmingham could be looking at a city shut down come Friday afternoon.

[Eskimo]

Also you have to factor in that the low will pivot meaning this area could have a proper dumping!

[Mr Plow]

A question.....over the years I have convinced myself that many a promising cold spell that has popped up in FI has been scuppered by the appearance of a Daily Express headline.

LOL! I've a similar theory of impending colds spells / snow being scuppered everytime I've read the charts, thought it to be nailed on, and then told work colleagues. I now keep stum.

That's all I'm going to say, as don't wish to jinx it

Edited January 16, 2013 by Mr Plow

[Steve C]

GFS (06Z) ensembles for Essex, showing maximum temperatures.

Looks like a prolonged cold spell from this.

[starstream]

Hmmmm

From GP

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Posted 3 minutes ago

I think we need to start to plan contingencies for a potentially sustained and very severe spell of wintry weather, of which Friday could just be the start.

NWP is presenting a number of potential snow events next week, which could well provide substantive accumulations.

The longwave trough migrating eastwards off the eastern coast of North America is consistently being modelled by ensemble means as cutting through a developing mid Atlantic ridge mid to late next week. That provides an eddy in the flow which is likely to enhance the easterly flow off an already frigid land mass to our east and north-east.

Thereafter, the ridge could retrogress towards the NE Atlantic and Greenland bring in another surge of Arctic air from the NE. That would give us a sustained period (with snowcover for much of the UK) of below normal temperatures.

I've grabbed the 06z GEFS at day 13 which depicts the synoptic pattern with a trough firmly ensconsed over Europe and high pressure to the north.

we all have often fantasised about huge snow drifts etc,and bitterly cold days and nights...but the reality might be blooming scary!!

I dont have an elderly neighbours,but if you do, might be worth popping in and making your face known....just picking up a prescription for them might be the difference netween slipping and a broken hip,or going without ,and being far worse for them

[Steve C]

LOL! I've a similar theory of impending colds spells / snow being scuppered everytime I've read the charts, thought it to be nailed on, and then told work colleagues. I now keep stum.

That's all I'm going to say, as don't wish to jinx it

Definitely wise. I'm pretty sure that someone posted in the previous area thread that they were 99% sure that there was going to be a major snowfall in their area over the last weekend. I remember thinking that 99% is a very high level of confidence...

[Timmytour]

Have seen GP's thoughts about how severe and prolonged this spell of winter might prove to be and was wondering who would have seen this coming...

Timmytour, on 30 December 2012 - 13:39

Frosty039, on 30 December 2012 - 12:50 , said:

The point I was making was we had 15c, almost 16c on christmas day 2011, the ecm shows an equally mild set up so some areas would top 15c easily with that chart. I'm looking forward to seeing colder weather beyond mid month, really can't see anything other than average and mostly mild to very mild in the next couple of weeks.

this ecm chart screams fohn effect, I imagine the scottish mountains will be snow free by next weekend or soon after.

Looks similar to this...

Fingers crossed

Edited January 16, 2013 by Timmytour

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Alert of Snow for East of England :

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

Yellow Alert of Snow for London & South East England :

Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Oxfordshire, Southampton, West Berkshire, Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Surrey, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham & Brighton and Hove

Valid from: 0300 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.

Issued at: 1056 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=E0CA7FAE-F986-851C-17A7-3DC5AA173D94_3_EE&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1358251260

[Eskimo]

Yellow Alert of Snow for East of England :

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

Yellow Alert of Snow for London & South East England :

Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Oxfordshire, Southampton, West Berkshire, Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Surrey, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham & Brighton and Hove

Valid from: 0300 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.

Issued at: 1056 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358251260

Important what I highlighted because 10cm seems at the moment to be the baseline, so the chances of more than 10cm at this stage is quite high!