Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013 20:00hrs>

[Wayneywoo]

Can I just say, for me personally, I am keeping a very much level head wrt how much snow we are to expect.

I have been through all this before so many times. Up late checking the latest model outputs, glued to the radar to see when the snow is going to hit, expecting more than what was actually received...

That last one does it for me. Inside, I am jumping up and down at the prospects of a proper good dumping however, on the outside, I am trying.....trying....to remain calm. Really don't want to set myself up for a big fall.......again!.....

[Sweetdream]

I for one will not be getting any hopes up. 2010 springs to my mind everywhere had dumplings of snow Bedfordshire done well but east anglia even after amber warnings was downgraded 6 hrs before the event. Coastlines do well from North Sea in certain set ups but further north west in east anglia miss out greatly and only clip pebo.

[Keraunic]

We have people traveling from both ends of the country for a party on Friday/Saturday. If the weather delivers it'll be a none-event me thinks. Oh, dear!!

[Jonathan Leaper]

that blob on the radar, is it comin in ?? looks it too me

[Coast]

Stand by for icy blasts and heavy snow on Friday - but you'll get hit by freezing fog first

Winter tightens grip as widespread travel disruption looms for the end of the week

Winter is tightening its grip over much of the UK, with widespread freezing fog tomorrow following by extensive snow falling during much of Friday. The lowest temperatures into today were -12.7C at Braemar in Scotland and -12.1C at Houghton Hall in Norfolk, MeteoGroup said that average temperatures were between -3C and -7C, and -3C in London - with worse to come. In Norfolk 262 schools have closed due to the weather

But many of us could feel even colder tomorrow. Laura Caldwell, a forecaster with the MeteoGroup weather division of the Press Association, said tonight's minimum could be -8C or even lower where snow is lying already. Tomorrow will see widespread fog, especially in eastern England - with temperatures struggling to crawl above freezing apart from in the south and west. Winds pick up into Friday, with the potential for gale force gusts in coastal areas - making 0C feel like up to -8C.

Most of England and Scotland would see significant snowfalls from daybreak, with possible blizzard conditions in exposed areas. Apart from the south and west, snowfall would be widespread and significant - not clearing until towards the end of the day.

And then freezing fog returns on Saturday.

Today, RAC spokesman Simon Williams said that operators had dealt with a normal day's worth of calls before midday in East Anglia, one of the worst-hit areas "We are experiencing a high volume of call-outs in coastal areas from the north east to Brighton in the south," he added. "The main issues are frozen doors, petrol caps, windows and handbrakes. "Nationally, we are expecting 8,500 breakdowns today, which is 1,000 more than a normal winter's day."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/stand-by-for-icy-blasts-and-heavy-snow-on-friday--but-youll-get-hit-by-freezing-fog-first-8453159.html

[Mr Plow]

that blob on the radar, is it comin in ?? looks it too me

I doubt they will, unless the winds turn more east, although you might catch one in your location. Those showers have been tantalisingly running down the coast into Kent all night or hitting the coast only to fizzle out. Few beefy ones out there though!

[snowking]

Have seen GP's thoughts about how severe and prolonged this spell of winter might prove to be and was wondering who would have seen this coming...

You can always tell when snow's on the way, either 47 or 63 gets thrown in

On a serious note, whist we are nit headed for another 47, the best synoptic match I can find in the archives for the upcoming (as presently modelled) period is indeed 1947. The next step if we want to follow down that path will be to get HP up to Greenland.

IF that happens, then we can start discussing 1947 more seriously. Of course in the meantime, snowfall on friday...then possibly again on Sunday night....and if that doesn't break down our cold, then we look to Wednesday.

In terms of other signs of our Greenland pressure rise:

A little resistance being put up to getting over the border into phase 7, but should it succeed:

Theres your Greenland height rise signal

As for the Stratosphere:

Pretty obvious ridge up to Greenland/Iceland at 100mb, with the continuing signal for the PV displaced further and further south across Canada/USA - so in short, more southerly tracking energy going underneath our ridge signal towards our north.

All pretty good signs at the moment for an extended spell of cold, and with it plenty of snowfall opportunity

SK

[Jonathan Leaper]

I doubt they will, unless the winds turn more east, although you might catch one in your location. Those showers have been tantalisingly running down the coast into Kent all night or hitting the coast only to fizzle out. Few beefy ones out there though!

maybe had 1 hr of snowfal here in leigh this morning, nothing was shown on the radar so who knows, if you put the animation on, there are heading towards you inipswitch only time will tell, and omg friday is getting closer lovinall these upgrades and minimal downgrades hoping winter is here to stay

[Steve C]

My hunch is that the west of the region will do better than my location from the weekend event, but a hunch is all it is. Good luck to those who get what they wish from it.

I've just inadvertently visited the first page of this thread and read it as though it was current. I think I'd just cancelled a post I was about to make and was taken back to the start... I saw someone moaning about a lack of snow in Diss and another post about 3 hours of heavy rain in Lowestoft. I was about to post how surprised I was about the rain in Lowestoft and that maybe the uppers weren't as low as I'd have expected. I'd have also been surprised about 3 hours of precipitation too. Then I noticed the dates on the posts...

[Keraunic]

Well, I don't know about anyone else..but I'm developing 'pink eye' gawping at the charts.

[Heisenberg]

The meto have the sweet spot in the NW but that could well change (please tell me if im wrong)....isnt it possible that the snow will come further east meaning its us that could get 8-10 inches?

Please tell me thats possible? lol

[Snowangel-MK]

Just a quick reminder that these regional threads were set up to discuss local forecasts and conditions, your thoughts on how things are panning out and what you intend doing with your snow when it gets there.. so can we stick to that please?

It's nothing personal if you have found a recent post deleted or edited, these are the things that happen on forums in an attempt to try and make sure everybody who wants to can enjoy using the forum without undue spam/off topic posting/aggressive posting/offensive posting and so on.

If you have an issue with a post and find it either offensive or derogatory then either hit the 'report' button, or PM an on line member of the moderating team and they will look into it, please do not reply to the post on the forum therefore repeating it and increasing the number of post that then have to be deleted.

Thanks

......now then back to the weather ......when is it going to snow in MK ?

[Methuselah]

Just had a half-hour snow shower, all out a virtually cloudless sky...

[Hughsey]

The meto have the sweet spot in the NW but that could well change (please tell me if im wrong)....isnt it possible that the snow will come further east meaning its us that could get 8-10 inches?

Please tell me thats possible? lol

Certainly, at 48 hours out, I'd say there is still time for a quite significant change in the positioning of the worst weather, although I'd say it is most likely that the west will do best.

[Sweetdream]

Certainly, at 48 hours out, I'd say there is still time for a quite significant change in the positioning of the worst weather, although I'd say it is most likely that the west will do best.

With all the potential for snow in the west I fear there will be warnings issued later with warmer front coming in that there will some flooding in far west corner.

[Methuselah]

There could be a mad dash for Sugar Frosties on Friday?

[Coast]

[snowwonder]

Just had this from someone at Luton airport. Interesting read!!

What follows is the early view of what the end of this week might look like for the UK. Temperatures are expected to continue to fall as we move in to the second part of this week. Day time temperatures will barely climb above freezing (except for the far south west and Ireland) and overnight we will see -4 to -6 falling to -8 to -10 by Fri/Sat.

**SEVERE ICING RISK**

UK - As forecast we have seen large accumulations of snow across far eastern parts of the UK over the last few days which mostly missed LTN & STN, but ice is now affecting many other areas of the country. The next 2 days look much drier and brighter but still very cold, giving us some respite from potentially disruptive wintry weather but a continued risk of severe frost and ice and plenty of de-icing activity. However, towards the end of the week it looks as though there will be a transition to more unsettled conditions spreading from the west. Over the last few days the UK has seen a battle between cold air to the east and north-east, and milder, moist air to the west. Cold air has certainly won the battle for the moment but milder air in the west is trying to push against it all the time. This is creating very difficult conditions to forecast. The current thoughts are that a band of rain will push in from the west on Friday, hit cold air and turn to snow that could produce significant accumulations for much of the UK. The main risk areas initially are Northern Ireland, Wales, northwest England, the West Midlands and southwest England but it is likely that these conditions will move east over the course of Friday and into the weekend. However, considerable uncertainty remains in exactly how the band of precipitation will then position itself, whether it continues northeast or stalls over western Britain. In the extreme west, snow is likely to turn back to rain but we could see large accumulations of snow in places. Amounts of snow are highly uncertain but there is currently a moderate risk of severe disruption to our operation. Over the weekend further outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are expected to push in from the west but there is still considerable uncertainty as to how quickly this might happen and whether or not we will see slightly less cold conditions despite the above predictions.

London Airports LTN/STN/LGW/SEN - The weather outlook for today and tomorrow is very cold with visibility issues due to freezing fog and then low cloud. Temperatures are set to stay below freezing over the next few days. There is a threat of substantial snowfall for Friday afternoon with a 50-60% risk of snow from the west making its way across to the London Area. If any snow does fall on Friday it is expected to arrive mid morning (however, it is too early to tell with any certainty at this early stage) and be with us for most of the afternoon into early evening. If the snow does eventuate, there is 40-50% probability of accumulations of up to 10cm's.

Due to the nature of the forecast OCC will be providing daily updates and will be in regular contact with the Met office.

** Would all relevant business areas ensure they are fully prepared for this next cold weather event? **

[bluearmy]

the further south east that the heaviest precip gets the more likely we will see higher temps getting close which could affect what follows later in the weekend. much too early to be putting precip totals on fridays front but i'm rather more interested in what comes later in the weekend as i dont want to see a sleety/rain situation which washes away fridays cover. 5 to 8 cms friday followed by the same again sunday/monday with no breakdown in the upper cold and continental flow will be perfect. 15 cms on friday followed by a thaw and then 10 days watching the midlands get buried whilst we get wet isnt my idea of fun !

[Sweetdream]

the further south east that the heaviest precip gets the more likely we will see higher temps getting close which could affect what follows later in the weekend. much too early to be putting precip totals on fridays front but i'm rather more interested in what comes later in the weekend as i dont want to see a sleety/rain situation which washes away fridays cover. 5 to 8 cms friday followed by the same again sunday/monday with no breakdown in the upper cold and continental flow will be perfect. 15 cms on friday followed by a thaw and then 10 days watching the midlands get buried whilst we get wet isnt my idea of fun !

Hi BA not sure about how far south east but I don't think it will reach my location I have a feeling that the front will hit Bedfordshire fizzling out.

[JennyJane1]

light fall of that polystyrene ball stuff

[Iceni]

I know for certain the snow will stop its eastward progress in Lidgate which is a couple of large fields west of me and fade away.

Walked the dogs and for the first time in a year didn't have to hose mud off my boots (not that I could as the outside tap's frozen).

Also heard a scary story about my brother in law yesterday. His daughter noticed their 3 horses standing in a line and pawing the ground at the edge of the pond in their field. She alerted her dad because their little Border Terrier had fallen through the ice in the middle and couldn't get out. He waded in thinking the pond was only a metre deep, but it was actually 7 foot deep and he found he had to swim to get to the dog! Both got back to the edge somehow. Holy Moley. Someone was looking after them. Don't try this at home.

But what clever horses!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Iceni

[TheBigFreeze]

the further south east that the heaviest precip gets the more likely we will see higher temps getting close which could affect what follows later in the weekend. much too early to be putting precip totals on fridays front but i'm rather more interested in what comes later in the weekend as i dont want to see a sleety/rain situation which washes away fridays cover. 5 to 8 cms friday followed by the same again sunday/monday with no breakdown in the upper cold and continental flow will be perfect. 15 cms on friday followed by a thaw and then 10 days watching the midlands get buried whilst we get wet isnt my idea of fun !

I agree with that sentiment, I think we will still be able to see some snowfall from Friday's event without to much disruption to the colder sustained period, possibly more so over Cambridgeshire, Norfolk....what path can you see the snow taking Friday?

[Methuselah]

I know for certain the snow will stop its eastward progress in Lidgate which is a couple of large fields west of me and fade away.

Walked the dogs and for the first time in a year didn't have to hose mud off my boots (not that I could as the outside tap's frozen).

Also heard a scary story about my brother in law yesterday. His daughter noticed their 3 horses standing in a line and pawing the ground at the edge of the pond in their field. She alerted her dad because their little Border Terrier had fallen through the ice in the middle and couldn't get out. He waded in thinking the pond was only a metre deep, but it was actually 7 foot deep and he found he had to swim to get to the dog! Both got back to the edge somehow. Holy Moley. Someone was looking after them. Don't try this at home.

But what clever horses!

Thank God, everyone's okay!

[Sweetdream]

Latest nae 12z has pushed it bk west by 150 miles.