Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013 20:00hrs>

[Sweetdream]

Now if I were in South Wales I'd be ramping.

Mega ppn totals there

Yes but then when it all melts and the warmer air digs in which is being modelled later on then I think there will be issues for flooding.

[Snowman.]

I think we a lot of us are wanting an undercut. As for met o I wouldn't put any faith in what they show past 24 hrs regarding snow let alone days ahead. ESP if going by their early prediction we are meant to see rain on Sunday. Best thing to do is chill our relax as what will be will be.

I know.

Was just saying.

[Chris D]

-5c at NWI now, dropping like a stone. Can see lower than -12c tonight!!!

http://www.checkwx.c...xmain/code/EGSH

Plus visibility dropping.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Chris D

[Sweetdream]

I know.

Was just saying.

Like you say we need that undercut to keep the colder air in place otherwise it will end in a heap of mush. : ( soggy feet come to mind.

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

Is that screen grab recent BWW?

from the forecast currently on the BBC Weather page (i.e. the video forecast - updated at lunchtime I think) - so current at the time of writing!

[Dan the Man]

Tempting fate here - nothing can go wrong can it? 100% chance of significant snow.

I dare say the snowfall totals have been underestimated somewhat. Easily 10-15cm in this region, surely?

[bluearmy]

conflicting signals re precip amounts from the 12z runs.

the next two nae runs will give a clue re possible totals to midnight friday. could be anywhere between 2cms and 15cms by the time the front has fizzled out. if you want me to take a punt. i wont as its pointless at the moment.

[Dan the Man]

its pointless at the moment.

Thought as much. The detail still needs to be nailed down T48 out.

[TEITS]

As promised my update.

I shall begin by tomorrow because the NAE suggests that we might see some light patchy snow later on Thursday evening into the overnight period. Now this might not even occur and even if it did it would be very light flurries, think of those patches of light blues on the Met O radar.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/16/basis12/ukuk/prty/13011800_1612.gif

Now onto the main day Friday.

Some disagreement with regards to how heavy the snowfall is going to be. The GFS tends to suggest a rather weak front as it travels E with the snow expected to arrive early afternoon in W parts of this region. The light snow is expected to fall through much of the evening into the overnight period before finally petering out Saturday morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs513.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs693.gif

The UKMO suggests more in the way of snowfall but I must admit im not a massive fan of the UKMO precip charts.

Comparing the NAE across the Midlands at +48 and it suggests the front will have heavier precip along the front than the GFS currently indicates although worth adding the 06Z GFS had more widespread, heavier snowfall than the 12Z.

So what does this all mean for our location from the above?

Well first of all precip amounts isn't everything when it comes to accumulating snowfalls. For example you can technically have greater snowdepths from just 5mm of rainfall than from 10mm. This is known as the snow ratio and what is on our side is upper temps, dew points are well below freezing with surface temps at -1C during Friday afternoon. The current projected temps, dewpoints, upper temps are far colder than the snowfalls on Monday.

So the type of snowfalls im expecting is anything from 5-10cm although the greater snowfall amounts are expected to be in the far W of this region i.e Northants. These accumulations are more likely to come from prolonged, light snowfall rather than heavy, short bursts. However as ever this can change and despite all my waffling it will come down to radar watching on Friday.

Another thing worth adding is the incredibly low min temps that could occur this weekend under any clear skies. If snowfalls do occur then on Sat/Sun night we could see mins drop below -10C or even hit -15C. If the models are right I reckon someone will hit -18C this weekend across some parts of the Midlands or maybe even Benson in Oxfordshire.

I was going to go into detail into early next week but to be honest we have enough to deal with. The latest UKMO suggests more heavy snow on Mon & Tues but until I see more runs I shall remained focused on Fri and this weekend.

Finally I do want to add some caution for Friday though to not get your hopes us just yet. The reason why E Anglia is the driest in the UK is simply due to fronts weakening as they move across the country. My experience tells me to just watch how the front behaves as it moves E and to hope it retains some intensity and doesn't weaken too much. I would also like to see more model runs and hopefully by tomorrow shall have a better idea. Thankfully the 18Z NAE tonight might give us some more insight into the expected precip amounts.

[Steve C]

I'm just going to wait and see what happens. and not worry, or get too excited beforehand. It's not like anything I think will make a shred of difference to what happens.

But here's hoping.

[Steve C]

Good summary TEITS and very pragmatic too.

[atrow]

hi I'm a real newbie and trying to look and understand the models .looking at them I can see a lot of snow for me Friday (Hertfordshire) but then I hear that by the time the low gets to me it will have fizzled out. am I reading the charts wrong??

[TEITS]

Good summary TEITS and very pragmatic too.

I forgot to add that if the UKMO is right it will take much of Saturday to clear. I underestimated how much snow would occur if the UKMO is right!

[Dexter29]

As in TEITS excellent post above.

I'm just going to wait until Friday and radar watch. Absolutely no point in ramping or becoming downbeat when on the day it will do whatever it wants.

[Me & angel fiance]

can't believe the weather diffs out there. Left Stevenage this morning after another snow shower and everything was sparkly white. Get near Hatfield and rest of way to work and hardly anything. Same coming home as nothing has melted here and a chilly -4 driving home

[saint]

Plenty of snow still left on any grass here... Quite a bit of fog around today, and it has felt very cold!

Edited January 16, 2013 by saint

[Wayneywoo]

My car thermometer said -3.5º just before midday!

[scotteboi]

Best joke: "My Lidl Pony"

Just been to Tesco and bought a bottle of Bacardi, a bottle of Captain Morgan and some burgers....so thats white rum, dark rum and Red Rum........sorry couldn't resist!

Bring on the snow!!

[Sweetdream]

Just been to Tesco and bought a bottle of Bacardi, a bottle of Captain Morgan and some burgers....so thats white rum, dark rum and Red Rum........sorry couldn't resist!

Bring on the snow!!

Don't think would want to eat telcos burgers quote from paper has it they contain horse meat.

[Methuselah]

Are 'telco' burgers tasty?

[Yarmy]

Just checked the Tesco burgers in my freezer.

Aaaaaaand they're off!

(Apologies)

[runboy]

Still loads of snow round Norwich. I couldn't get out this morning - left at 7.30am and car wouldn't go more than 20 feet (live on a hill). Got out eventually at 10am and took 90 mins to do an 8 mile journey. Rough on the way home tonight but better on main roads, side roads just ice rinks. Minus 2 inside the garage this morning, let alone what it was outside. Going to be another cold night.

Wonder what Friday will bring!

[Coast]

Just been requested to put a few of these up so you can drool over them during your tea tonight:

[Ben_Cambs]

Very cold today and the first ice day of this winter. Didn't get above -3C and the freezing fog has descended again. Currently -4.4C.

[suffolkboy_]

Despite the recent news, Tesco says that their beef burger sales remain stable........I'll get my coat.

Infact I need my coat....it's -5.5C here currently and dropping well!

Edited January 16, 2013 by suffolkboy_