London & South East Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[Heretic]

If the snow does indeed reach us on Friday, could there be blizzard conditions with that deep low?

[Southender]

Wow things must have changed dramatically then if that is the case from the above post.

Goes and wanders off to look at the 12z's

There is a small window between midnight and 6am Paul. Where winds could prove more favourable, with an ENE flow.

Not ideal timewise though in terms of ppn forming.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Shrimper

[snowbob]

There is a small window between midnight and 7am Paul. Where winds could prove more favourable, with an ENE flow.

Not ideal timewise though in terms of ppn forming.

no chance of streamers that time of the morning then mate

Oh well

Shame we didn't have that direction this afternoon

[Paul Sherman]

Hmmm Interesting

Well Well Well what do we have here then! Ideal winds for early tomorrow, things have indeed changed, only problem is it's the GooFuS Model!

Quick question though, why has the time of day got anything to do with this, never had a problem in previous years with precip overnight ?

Edited January 15, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[Brocken Spectre]

I'm a little nieve regard the 500' charts. Can you explain why it's eye candy?? (Only just started to get to grips with 850' Temp charts!)

Eye candy..

[Kent Blizzard]

Hi all. I'm new but have been a lurker for a while based in Medway

It's certainly been an interesting few days and we look to have atleast another week of interesting weather to look forward to, the latest outputs show something very special on the cards for much of the U.K. and us in the SE.

FI but it keeps us going for sometime http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013011512/ECM1-192.GIF

Some would say still FI but this is not far away at all, Nice wedge of the UK including us showing as snow on the GFS t78 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=78&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Something certainly to keep an eye on over the next 24hrs before we start to enter the what i call "probable outcome zone"

Regarding tonight's activity it currently looks like everything will just sweep past the East of the County unless we can get a NE/NNE wind change as the night goes on which I wouldn't rule out looking towards the directions up in the North East at the Moment.

[london-snow]

Snow to rain event fri & sat watch this space - Peter Cockroft bbc London news. Shame really would have liked a snow event sticking around for a few days following.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm a little nieve regard the 500' charts. Can you explain why it's eye candy?? (Only just started to get to grips with 850' Temp charts!)

Slider low... I am not totally clued up on them either BUT.. Basically a slider low get's it's name from what it does.. Slams into our cold east pool and slides down it.. The PPN falls as snow on the cold side..And rain on the milder side..BUT of course if you have the right cold all snow..

[PLANET THANET]

no chance of streamers that time of the morning then mate

Oh well

Shame we didn't have that direction this afternoon

just seen southeast forecast on bbc and they did say that thanet is due to get 5-10cms of snow through tonight and tomorrow and then the chart showed basically the whole country bathed in snowfall for the weekend

sorry that quote above does from snowbob does not relate to my post and should not be there!!!

Edited January 15, 2013 by PLANET THANET

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Snow to rain event fri & sat watch this space - Peter Cockroft bbc London news. Shame really would have liked a snow event sticking around for a few days following.

The only rain that would fall (currently based on todays charts) would be the very south west and west including Ireland) But could change..

[Lampostwatcher]

just seen southeast forecast on bbc and they did say that thanet is due to get 5-10cms of snow through tonight and tomorrow and then the chart showed basically the whole country bathed in snowfall for the weekend

sorry that quote above does from snowbob does not relate to my post and should not be there!!!

was the area of London all snow

[Southender]

Hmmm Interesting

Well Well Well what do we have here then! Ideal winds for early tomorrow, things have indeed changed, only problem is it's the GooFuS Model!

Quick question though, why has the time of day got anything to do with this, never had a problem in previous years with precip overnight ?

Just a pet hate of mine to be honest. I always feel during the day spawns a bit more Ppn. Probably minimal difference though if you actually analysed it!

[stun12]

Damn cold out here though. -1.3c DP -2c. Gritters are out - Yamkin must have got lost, no wonder he's not posted yet....

[Downpour]

If the snow does indeed reach us on Friday, could there be blizzard conditions with that deep low?

Yes but BBC 24 have just shown it as a pretty feeble attempt by the Atlantic, getting not much further than Bristol.Doesn't mean it will do that of course!

[Kent Blizzard]

FI but it still would keep the cold air rolling air, could be a remarkable spell of weather coming up, could the media hype about a 3 week freeze be correct for once lol

http://www.meteociel...M0-216.GIF?15-0

Edited January 15, 2013 by Kent Blizzard

[Downpour]

Snow to rain event fri & sat watch this space - Peter Cockroft bbc London news. Shame really would have liked a snow event sticking around for a few days following.

Oh god please please no.

[PLANET THANET]

was the area of London all snow

yes they had it covering from the west right across to the east

it makes you wonder why the local forecasts all come up with different ideas (peter cockcroft for one )

Edited January 15, 2013 by PLANET THANET

[lottiekent]

Hi all. I'm new but have been a lurker for a while based in Medway

Welcome to the regional forum Kent Blizzard

[BOMBHEADS]

met office is showing only sunday as rain for coastal regions, mean = 6c, inland it is only 1c so much better chance of snow there

[Paul Sherman]

Oh god please please no.

I must admit this is early, I was expecting the BBC Graphics posts to come on here late Wednesday or even Thursday.

Expect a bumpy ride with this one SEasterners, I would urge everyone to wait until Thursday at the earliest before trying to analyse anything.

As others have said if the block is very strong this system will not even makes inroads from the West!

Pure conjecture at present

[Kentspur]

Probably too late to say this but anyway why not lighten the mood-

Well bbc London were pretty confident heavy snow overnight Friday and didn't show Saturday but said that's the start of the snow for the weekend lol

[Kent Blizzard]

I don't mean to turn this into the MO thread, I'm not sure on the rules but wouldn't this kind of output bring snow also? I think so http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

Welcome to the regional forum Kent Blizzard

Hi thanks

[Tamara]

Snow to rain event fri & sat watch this space - Peter Cockroft bbc London news. Shame really would have liked a snow event sticking around for a few days following.

Yes, so would I - would make a fun weekend . That suggestion atm looks about right from what the latest charts show and not as promising as perhaps as looked before. Pity the much more widespread snow shower potential also disappeared during the middle of this week.

However, being more positive, it is still early yet

Edited January 15, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Robbie Garrett]

Maximum zero degrees Celsius Friday/Saturday for London.

Precipitation Looks like hitting 1500/1600 Friday evening, right before rush hour. With temperature -2/-1*C with Heavy Snow/Snow most likely for many, this all likely to change. I am also seeing London hitting -10*C which is a lot colder than 2010.

[Kentspur]

Yes, so would I - would make a fun weekend . That suggestion atm looks about right from what the latest charts show and not as promising as perhaps as looked before. Pity the much more widespread snow shower potential also disappeared during the middle of this week.

However, being more positive, it is still early yet

What doesn't add up with Peters forecast was yes he initially said snow to rain but he ended on mentioning the snow on friday nite is "the start of it for the weekend" sounds a bit confusing