London & South East Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[SHM040519]

GOOD NEWS

There is a slight shift to the shower stream in the north sea, not enough to bring it inland yet.... HOWEVER if you live in margate, look for lightning out to sea

the wind direction changing then and making it more likely for place like canterbury??

[Southender]

Personally I'm hoping the front gets nowhere near us - remember the rule: what comes from the West is bilge. And it's too risky. It can look impressive with its big flakes and heavy intensity but give me the powdery showery stuff from the East any day!

I would agree normally. But for most in this region its looking mostly dry over the next few days. Im getting to the point where I want to go all in and go for the high risk, high reward option!

Saying that if the winds swing more ENE and a couple of troughs pop up, I will soon change my tune!!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Shrimper

[gottolovethisweather]

I thought I'd just copy my thoughts in here from the SW & CSE regional, enjoy.

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Further to AWDs excellent analysis above, I'll also add mine.

Iceberg picked up on the Jetstream orientation and its implications. Have a look at the following to show why the GFS 12z was such a corker!

As before, I urge folks to view things from a global perspective, rather than worrying about surface features which haven't yet developed. This will only lead to confusion and subsequent overanalysis.

Some Five days ago, here was where the NH Jetstream was projected to be by Wednesday 16th January, 12pm

After this afternoon's run, here is the forecasted position for the day after, Thursday 17th January, 12pm

Totally different, chalk and cheese in fact look at where the NH Jetstream is. Several hundred miles WEST of the UK.

Then we go into the exciting and agonising period of t+96, Saturday 19th January, 12pm

I can only tell it how it is, but that shows a fantastic image of the NH Jetstream and as a piece in the puzzle of a perfect BATTLEGROUND scenario, just look at its positioning, bring it three days forward and its GAME ON.

Looking even further ahead is fairly pointless to be fair, but I will tease you with the NH Jetstream profile on Monday 21st January, 12pm (my birthday)

The NH Jetstream continues on its vacation southwards towards Africa.

Now let us look at the associated T850s from Thursday 17th January, 12pm, Saturday 19th January, 12pm and Monday 21st January, 12pm respectively.

Now onto finite details such SLP & Dewpoints which are very much subject to change as such a timescale. However, without the DP part of the puzzle, the rest of the jigsaw is not really worth analysing when it comes to SNOW.

Firstly remember the "HAVE SOME OF THAT" post from the other day showing the following.

What do you think the corresponding chart shows now at t+39.

I would say it is pretty difficult, not to say that that is an upgrade.

I will also attach the restricted to netweather Full Subscription members charts showing SLP & Dewpoints for the following timeframes. Wednesday 16th January, 12am, Thursday 17th January, 12pm, Saturday 19th January, 12pm and Monday 21st January, 12pm respectively.

All of the above charts cannot be taken literally as once SNOW is on the ground, should it in fact arrive and lay, the ground will cool rapidly and as a consequence modify the air above. Incidentally, all the charts away from the far Southwest suggest 12pm dewpoints very much condusive for snowfall.

As per the other day, I feel the deeper trend has to favour the atlantic bursting down the door but who knows when this will be. For now I suggest FANTASTY ISLAND lies between t+72 and t+96 at the latest.

Three tips I suggest when the BATTLEGROUND is in sight are to look for posts containing NAE output, NMM output and/or MetO Fax chart updates as before.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Dexter29]

So excitement building again for the coming end of the week.

It's like the second coming, well it is the second coming for us, the first was a bit of a let down.

I hope EVERYONE has learnt from a few days ago though that snow totals can only be worked out once it's fallen!

If you look at the GFS prediction for FRI - SAT it is showing a similar amount of snowfall as was being predicted before the weekend for our very soggy non event we have just had so bear that in mind.

Yes get excited but take any predictions of feet of snow with a very very very large pinch of salt.

That's even if the system makes it to our region. A chance we could just remain dry.

Fingers crossed we all get pasted with the white stuff come Friday night :-)

[Joker]

lol looks like someone opened a bag of icing sugar and it exploded all over the screen!

What a cracker!

[Joker]

Personally I'm hoping the front gets nowhere near us - remember the rule: what comes from the West is bilge. And it's too risky. It can look impressive with its big flakes and heavy intensity but give me the powdery showery stuff from the East any day!

Yes but the classic blizzards of past have mostly come from SW Atlantic fronts meeting the Easterly block. Stalling LOW's skirting the channel have been dynamite for Kent and Sussex!

[snowfall09]

Showers getting much closer to the extreme SE coastline!

[bobbydog]

here's a thought- what if the snowfall is so heavy it brings down power lines and knocks out the internet...... no netweather??????

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not to get any hopes up or anything... But if these charts were to come off... And we stick with the cold... This could become a winter to remember..

[Downpour]

Yes but the classic blizzards of past have mostly come from SW Atlantic fronts meeting the Easterly block. Stalling LOW's skirting the channel have been dynamite for Kent and Sussex!

If it stalls over, let's say, Ealing then retreats I'm sure I'll live with it :-)

here's a thought- what if the snowfall is so heavy it brings down power lines and knocks out the internet...... no netweather??????

A disaster. We wouldn't be able to obsessively look for a breakdown and would be forced to play in the bloody stuff with our kids instead! :-)

[john pike]

Also no lamp posts :-)

[bobbydog]

Also no lamp posts :-)

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It's so so hard to not let your excitement get the better off you...

[95 Degrees]

Went for a short walk and a frost already forming on cars, now down to -1.1C.

[Jezzer]

There goes Yamkin in the gritter! Busy old night

[Kent Blizzard]

It is so tempting to get overly exciting but we should keep our feet on the ground for a little while long, I have no doubt we will see snow out of this Friday/Saturday event but how much is yet to be seen, I got a feeling the major mess will be caused by blizzard type conditions in the wind rather than snow depth.

Personally I prefer depth meaning car cannot get down the road and no work lol

Note regarding tonight, looking at the wind directions if I lived Margate/Ramsgate down to say Dover, I would be keep an eye on these showers coming in off the North Sea,

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Showers a heading towards east kent on a sw trajectory..... Look out margate/manston/ramsgate......

[BOMBHEADS]

just seen this, got to be less than 30 mins away from me. looking like little beefy ones to.

Edited January 15, 2013 by BOMBHEADS

[Charltonkerry]

Got to make some serious decisions at work tomorrow, if the weather outlook remains the same. Problem is we service / maintain large refrigeration plants throughout England, unfortunately fridge plants breakdown in extremely low temperatures (and high), problem is how do you keep 10 engineers mobiles in heavy snow? If we don't succeed then the start of the food distribution start to fail, and just think this problem is being discussed throughout many industries throughout the UK, thank goodness we refuse to look after supermarkets. Think its going to be a long weekend, but it won't stop me lamppost watching :-) (assuming we still got power)

Temp -0.5, dew point -2.2

Edited January 15, 2013 by Charltonkerry

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.iossc.org.uk/weather/index.php?n=3

Winds veered to nne at sheerness !

[Methuselah]

Went for a short walk and a frost already forming on cars, now down to -1.1C.

-6 @ Norwich Airport!

[kold weather]

Well there is potenial for a very special bit of weather, though for now I'd say the bullseye zone would be somewhere in the west Midlands. Still lets hope the 18z continues to throw the front far enough east for us to really feel the benefit.

Shouldn't have to worry about too much marginality with the severe cold embedded and coming in from France.

[HammerJack]

Not to get any hopes up or anything... But if these charts were to come off... And we stick with the cold... This could become a winter to remember..

Oi Surrey.... Stop RAMPING haha

[hernebaylooby]

Ok im back i have drunk to much and currently sitting on the floor in a corner of my. Kitchen. Yet im checking the forums for updates now thats dedication!

So whats the update?

[GoonerGregg77]

Here's too hoping we get some real glorious snow for us South Easteners this coming Friday!