London & South East Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[Neilsouth]

You know whats annoying?

Local forecast " 10CM of snow possible but not to worry they are only light snow showers but constant "

yet side step a bit and they talk of possible bad case scenarios of 2-5cm, possible 10cm or more.

Surely 10cm is a lot of snow for some, light or heavy ?

[SlimJ]

Mmmm Rachel!

[Tamara]

I wonder if someone could clarify the terminology for the Kent snow events? In Jan 2010, there was a streamer which was caused by convection off the North Sea and made land at Faversham or so, heading SW (and crossing over me!) before exiting into the channel between Hastings and Eastbourne. We got loads of snow off it as it lasted for 12 hours or so...is this the Slapper?

I've no idea what it is (was) called but yes there was such a streamer that gave a good 12hrs of almost non stop snow showers. It produced about 15cms of snow . It is something like that which is much better and much less marginal than most atlantic lows.

[Jason T]

!! CAUTION !! I am not a doom munger, although I will come across as one, but honestly, there is a hint already that we could be looking at a heavy snow to moderate rain event. This worries me, and I really urge caution too anyone who gets a little too excited about Friday.

Were likely to be in the unlucky area once this area of precipitation comes in from the west. It will be a M4 corridor job northwards come the end of the week when we see the forecasts, I can see it!

I bloody hope not, just a feeling that's all, nothing to back my notion of course, so I hope mods don't think I'm trolling.

The models look very, very good though, I must admit, it would be fantastic to see an all snow event, but I just think the SE with all the great chances we were getting introduced to last week, it would seem fitting that the end of the week brings with it more huge disappointment.

Fingers crossed I'm wrong in a big way

So do i.Whilst we await the outcome Lets view the potential this current Winter set up has.

1962/63 (Winter):

1. The very COLD SPELL that started just before Christmas 1962 persisted throughout January, February and early March. One of the four or five COLDEST WINTERS in the CET record, and the COLDEST of the 20th century. (See also 1813/14; 1739/40 and 1683/84).

One of only four winters in the CET record when consecutive months had sub-zero mean TEMPERATURES: January 1963 (-2.1) & February (-0.7). [The others are January & February 1684, January & February 1740 & December 1878 / January 1879.] (see also below)

2. Moor House, Westmorland had 34 days with MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE 0.0degC or less from 23rd December 1962 until 25th January, 1963. (Higher level stations would easily exceed this).

1963 (January): COLDEST MONTH (20TH CENTURY) IN CENTRAL ENGLAND RECORD

The coldest month in CET record for the 20th century occurred in the January that was part of the severe winter of 1962/63. The value was -2.1degC, beating the -1.9degC of February 1947, and placing it about fifth in the all-series record of coldest months.

1962/63 (Winter): COLDEST WINTER OF THE CENTURY

This was the coldest winter (by the CET series) of the century, and the second coldest (after 1739/40) in the entire series. The wintry weather (frequent, often heavy snowfall/severe frosts) set in just after the shortest day and lasted with only minor interruptions until early March. Snow remained on the ground for a good part of this period. Notable persistence of easterly winds to south of Scandinavian blocking high. NB: HOWEVER ... an analysis (published in 1963) using Glasgow (Renfrew/Abbotsinch) from 1921, and before that Glasgow Observatory suggests that this winter was the SECOND coldest in the composite series from the winter of 1868/69 ... the COLDEST WINTER for the Glasgow area being 1878/79. (Over 450 football matches postponed - 'Pools' panel invented?); The sea froze for some distance offshore in Kent (?north shore/Thames Estuary?) , and ICE FLOES were a frequent observation in the lower Thames and across the Estuary; Lamb (TEC) has this: " At this time (late January / early February) there was ICE about in the southern North Sea and near the Goodwin Sands in the Straits of Dover, with a belt of ICE a mile or more in width along the coasts of Kent. Explosives were used to free ships in an Essex port. Upriver at Hampton Court the river could be crossed on foot". Farms in remote regions of the west were isolated for over 2 months. Amongst long-term problems that the adverse weather generated was a sharp rise in unemployment in the building (& allied) trades - a highly seasonal occupation, and a rise in insurance premiums. Local authorities also faced a huge bill for road repairs after frost-heave, as well as the short-term costs of keeping the roads etc., clear of SNOW.

1963 (February):

1. After 120 years of quiet, Mount Agung (Bali, Indonesia / East Indies) began erupting on February 18th (some references have 19th). A series of major explosions produced destructive avalanches of various pyroclastic material on March 17th & May 16th, destroying many villages & killing around 2000 people. The explosive clouds of gas and volcanic dust reached heights of more than 10km above the crater, high enough to reach the stratosphere. The atmospheric effects, including dramatically coloured sunsets & haloes around the sun, encircled the earth within a few weeks; there was a decrease in light measured from distant stars, with the decrease at a maximum between August to November 1963, lasting to some extent until mid-1964. Stratospheric TEMPERATURES rose as much as 6degC, and the average world near-surface TEMPERATURE dropped 0.4degC for 3 years after the eruptions.[VOLC]

1963 (March): POST SNOWY-WINTER FLOODING

1. Exceptionally WET in parts of Scotland & SW England, southern Wales etc. Combined with some rapid SNOWMELT (mild air/HEAVY RAIN) early month, FLOODING a significant problem for these regions. All stations recorded above average RAINFALL. More than three-times the average rainfall in parts of Scotland and the south-west of England.

[SlimJ]

Surely 10cm is a lot of snow for some, light or heavy ?

It's enough to make getting to work in the morning tricky if the roads are not gritted.

[Me & angel fiance]

lol looks like someone opened a bag of icing sugar and it exploded all over the screen!

[Ice BIast]

The blob out in the north sea is becoming rather interesting, starting to move in a more SWly direction now.

[Robbie Garrett]

Yes - NE Flow

Was that 10th February 2010? Was at Biggin Hill, aircraft wouldn't start so we was about to jump out and this happened. 10KM (CAVOK) conditions to 200 meters in +SHSN

[leemondo]

heres an EASY one for everyone at the end of the week-

when the front comes through use the 850s' at -2c to guide where the snow to rain line is...

just an aside the reason the UKMO are going snow to rain sunday is the UKMO was agressive in bringing it t hrough day 6, however the Updated ECM is very slow like the GFS & more particular the GEm that is ALL snow..

expect there to be some SHOCKING forecasts on TV in the next 72 hours-

stay here where we have dynamic up to date models... ( of the weather kind )

S

I was thinking this Steve, it seems the general movement is slowed and maybe ,(maybe) stalled as it bumps into the colder air, which to be fair, will be well and truly solid, but for the beeb to be on board at this time frame is quite rare!

There's somethin' a brewin i tells ya!

(although i still stand by my last comment, that things can change DRASTICALLY)

Edited January 15, 2013 by leemondo

[Neilsouth]

Have to laugh at the replies on the weather out look, a LACK of informative replies regarding tonight/tomorrows snowfall.

But we know what's going on

The wind direction is not due to shift till atleast midnight, towards 3am for north east winds. The north sea precipiation may decay by then but more may come down the north sea later, plus the warmer sea's near our location may help developments.

Wait till after midnight and keep checking http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

It could go VERY wrong!!!!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Victor Meldrew

[Kentspur]

You know whats annoying?

Local forecast " 10CM of snow possible but not to worry they are only light snow showers but constant "

yet side step a bit and they talk of possible bad case scenarios of 2-5cm, possible 10cm or more.

Surely 10cm is a lot of snow for some, light or heavy ?

Wow I wish we had that problem to discuss! I'd be happy with 2cm right now! Just enjoy those in the East of my county! And fingers crossed the rest of the region can join you by saturday

[SHM040519]

Have to laugh at the replies on the weather out look, a LACK of informative replies regarding tonight/tomorrows snowfall.

But we know what's going on

The wind direction is not due to shift till atleast midnight, towards 3am for north east winds. The north sea precipiation may decay by then but more may come down the north sea later, plus the warmer sea's near our location may help developments.

Wait till after midnight and keep checking http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

It could go VERY wrong!!!!

Victor, where will be the furthest west? Canterbury? will i possibly see some tomorrow? thanks

[Jason M]

Apparently Cockfrost said snow to rain - would surely all be washed away/slush fest by Saturday. That would be a crying shame, especially given it's a weekend!

I'd imagine that forecast was put together prior to the 12z suite of runs coming out. The biggest threat to our region now might be further shifts south meaning it stays dry. Even in that scenario the renewed push from the east that would follow would deliver for us I expect. All in all, good news tonight.

Jason

[Tom Jarvis]

Just to say it is -1.5c at my location

[Neilsouth]

Victor, where will be the furthest west? Canterbury? will i possibly see some tomorrow? thanks

North East wind and canterbury will be perfectly fine, however if that wind is North/North East then you're looking more towards Manston. If it's a direct north then more towards thanet, us in kent will really need a North East wind!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Victor Meldrew

[stun12]

I've no idea what it is (was) called but yes there was such a streamer that gave a good 12hrs of almost non stop snow showers. It produced about 15cms of snow . It is something like that which is much better and much less marginal than most atlantic lows.

Indeed - inland from Rye would have got the brunt of it as here. My wife was working in the village shop and the live-in owners had gone away. Much fun was had with Netweather radar and ordering in huge quantities of milk from Northiam Dairies to make sure the villagers didn't run out! The snow stayed for ages too, and was even topped up a couple of times. Just splendid. Feb-12 wasn't bad either...

[Downpour]

Evening all, it might just be me remembering this incorrectly, but haven't the BBC forecasts been right this week? At no point did they promise me a snowfest, and the areas where the worst of the snow was forecast, have actually had the snow - correct me if I am wrong

The Sunday 2230 was a shocker. Said the front wouldn't get anywhere near. Most of London woke up to a dusting. That said, I have a horrible feeling the snow to rain forecast will be proved right!

[abovefreezing]

The Sunday 2230 was a shocker. Said the front wouldn't get anywhere near. Most of London woke up to a dusting. That said, I have a horrible feeling the snow to rain forecast will be proved right!

I cant remember a single case where a snow to rain event has been proven wrong, not one!

[london-snow]

Good posts today in this thread a joy to be apart of.

I know i was the first to make a remark about the bbc London forecast tonight regarding fri & sat possible snow.

Its looks a ever changing story & to credit peter cockroft he did say snow to rain however in big capital letters i believe it said ' WATCH THIS SPACE ' so clearly it looks up in the air atm as to if we see a snow only event or a snow back to rain or no snow at all.

Place your bets and take your pick but it all adds up to high uncertainity.

[ChartViewer]

The blob out in the north sea is becoming rather interesting, starting to move in a more SWly direction now.

beware the blob

[Jayces]

So excitement building again for the coming end of the week.

It's like the second coming, well it is the second coming for us, the first was a bit of a let down.

I hope EVERYONE has learnt from a few days ago though that snow totals can only be worked out once it's fallen!

If you look at the GFS prediction for FRI - SAT it is showing a similar amount of snowfall as was being predicted before the weekend for our very soggy non event we have just had so bear that in mind.

Yes get excited but take any predictions of feet of snow with a very very very large pinch of salt.

[Richierich82]

Good evening everyone whats the score with the weather tonight/ tomorrow I've been out all day so haven't been on here really.im getting all confused if we're expecting anything in the next 12hrs??

[Downpour]

I didn't see the forecast (and wouldn't anyway as I am not in the London region) but it looks very complex for the weekend with a series of lows heading in and trying to undercut the cold air as they head south-eastwards. The problem for the southern most counties is that if the lows don't track far enough south of us then the cold air gets lifted out quickly as the wind changes away from the cold continent and dewpoints and temperatures rise...much as they did yesterday when we were too close to the moist atlantic air then

Personally I'm hoping the front gets nowhere near us - remember the rule: what comes from the West is bilge. And it's too risky. It can look impressive with its big flakes and heavy intensity but give me the powdery showery stuff from the East any day!

[Neilsouth]

GOOD NEWS

There is a slight shift to the shower stream in the north sea, not enough to bring it inland yet.... HOWEVER if you live in margate, look for lightning out to sea

[ChartViewer]

Trafalgar square according to experts come Sunday.........