London & South East Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[anything-but]

yes. .. Oh wait its still the floor :/

At least on the floor you cant fall any further.

[AGAL]

Hmm, BBC weather just said snow turning to rain here in the SE on Fri, is that showing on the charts? Rubbish if so

.

UKMO are not showing that, for the Bromley area of Kent on their website http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=5day

Showing snow all the way from Friday to Saturday-don't trust any of it though until the snow is on the grond for more than half an hour.

TBH sickened by all the UKMO stupid warnings and rubbish in the media. half hour of snow in London for all the fanfare..

Wrong thread .

[Snowy Bob]

That's coming for us isn't it?

[Bluebreezer54]

Maybe but what's the point of prolonging a cold spell that delivers us nothing?

There are some folk in Norfolk who might beg to differ. Cheer up

[Neilsouth]

Snowing in Birchington AND Minster

[Rinse The Raindrops]

A downgrade in snow potential. A dry cold spell does nothing for me.

First Saturday just gone was meant to deliver us snow then it was Monday, then it was today, then it was Wednesday and Thursday for snow showers (since downgraded), then it was friday (could be downgraded), now it could be next Monday. It's like chasing shadows!

Yeah know how you feel and a guess a lot of us feel the same but a lot of weather is about luck I feel

A week ago the models weren't suggesting Norwich would be the prime spot for snow, after a disappointing Monday here last night was fun for an hour I feel that was lucky , we had a nice covering here in early December and who knows some precip may take place from the coast later this week, but I do feel these days we have too much information, I remember the days when you had to wait for the forecast on ONE channel and look out the window

[kold weather]

NMM 18z doesn't even have a hint of precip on its 48hrs chart over England, where as NAE at the same time has a band near London and east Midlands...hard to have faith in any models given that sort of difference at 48hrs!!

[manutdmatt1986]

You had snow last night / the early hours, didn't you?

You mean the snow that fell whilst I was asleep and didn't settle? Brilliant.

[High Altitude]

Do you want to know something?

He's been accused as being a mild lover ever since two/net weather was created and he came onto the scene

Probably why he still has a gig and good old robs been ostracised. Watch out Fergie....

[Roadrunner]

My thoughts and forecasts are on my weather page. I don't rant on there. I'm just getting incredibly frustrated by this.

Have to agree Matt. Very frustrating, especially seeing as 18z seems to have pushed everything west again. I know it's one run but have that feeling that this is gonna go t*ts up again. Was looking forward to some lamp post watching Friday evening.

[Neilsouth]

Probably why he still has a gig and good old robs been ostracised. Watch out Fergie....

Still I wish we had more skilled and in depth forecasters on the local south east today weather, all we get are weather girls who compete over who's better looking

[SF-02]

He doesn't exactly get me enthused either. Think he's a mildy.

He did predict quite a lot of snow just before the amazing 'beast from the east' in December.

[lottiekent]

That's coming for us isn't it?

I hope so...reading -0.9c here. Just looked outside and it's frosty but there are stars overhead and not cloud!!

[abruzzi spur]

My thoughts and forecasts are on my weather page. I don't rant on there. I'm just getting incredibly frustrated by this.

Ah well. I'm not on facebook, and won't be, so unless you put them on here I won't get the chance to have a read and will just have to take my chances with those that post on here and other publicly available sites.

AS

[snowbob]

He did predict quite a lot of snow just before the amazing 'beast from the east' in December.

yeah and that was wrong too lol

[abovefreezing]

Right, still looks somewhat promising to me around 3am, so time for some kip.

Thats IF its not ANOTHER slushfest!

But there's a sayin about things coming in threes...hope not 2 slushouts and counting...

Edited January 15, 2013 by abovefreezing

[john pike]

heres a ramp

oh and gfs 18z next week is awesome

[Kent Blizzard]

Don't be down guys, this time tomorrow it could be game on again for us, these things will and often do change right up till T24 even t12

Alot to play for imvho

[gottolovethisweather]

Just in case, you folk missed it, heres some analysis from the GFS 12z suite.

I thought I'd just copy my thoughts in here from the SW & CSE regional, enjoy.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Further to AWDs excellent analysis above, I'll also add mine.

Iceberg picked up on the Jetstream orientation and its implications. Have a look at the following to show why the GFS 12z was such a corker!

As before, I urge folks to view things from a global perspective, rather than worrying about surface features which haven't yet developed. This will only lead to confusion and subsequent overanalysis.

Some Five days ago, here was where the NH Jetstream was projected to be by Wednesday 16th January, 12pm

After this afternoon's run, here is the forecasted position for the day after, Thursday 17th January, 12pm

Totally different, chalk and cheese in fact look at where the NH Jetstream is. Several hundred miles WEST of the UK.

Then we go into the exciting and agonising period of t+96, Saturday 19th January, 12pm

I can only tell it how it is, but that shows a fantastic image of the NH Jetstream and as a piece in the puzzle of a perfect BATTLEGROUND scenario, just look at its positioning, bring it three days forward and its GAME ON.

Looking even further ahead is fairly pointless to be fair, but I will tease you with the NH Jetstream profile on Monday 21st January, 12pm (my birthday)

The NH Jetstream continues on its vacation southwards towards Africa.

Now let us look at the associated T850s from Thursday 17th January, 12pm, Saturday 19th January, 12pm and Monday 21st January, 12pm respectively.

Now onto finite details such SLP & Dewpoints which are very much subject to change as such a timescale. However, without the DP part of the puzzle, the rest of the jigsaw is not really worth analysing when it comes to SNOW.

Firstly remember the "HAVE SOME OF THAT" post from the other day showing the following.

What do you think the corresponding chart shows now at t+39.

I would say it is pretty difficult, not to say that that is an upgrade.

I will also attach the restricted to netweather Full Subscription members charts showing SLP & Dewpoints for the following timeframes. Wednesday 16th January, 12am, Thursday 17th January, 12pm, Saturday 19th January, 12pm and Monday 21st January, 12pm respectively.

All of the above charts cannot be taken literally as once SNOW is on the ground, should it in fact arrive and lay, the ground will cool rapidly and as a consequence modify the air above. Incidentally, all the charts away from the far Southwest suggest 12pm dewpoints very much condusive for snowfall.

As per the other day, I feel the deeper trend has to favour the atlantic bursting down the door but who knows when this will be. For now I suggest FANTASTY ISLAND lies between t+72 and t+96 at the latest.

Three tips I suggest when the BATTLEGROUND is in sight are to look for posts containing NAE output, NMM output and/or MetO Fax chart updates as before.

[snowbob]

heres a ramp

oh and gfs 18z next week is awesome

nice nice

[Bluebreezer54]

He has got a point,,

Which he continually repeats over and over like a broken record. When will folk realise and accept that we are a tiny island with a temperate maritime climate ? Thems the facts. Our weather will invariably be borderline, once you accept that, happiness awaits

[SlimJ]

It all seems to be scooting around us in Manston!!!

[Ice BIast]

Snowing in Birchington AND Minster

I don't know how I missed it, not even a flake here in Broadstairs.

Edited January 15, 2013 by lce Blast

[Neilsouth]

nice nice

TOO FAR AHEAD!

Let's keep our eyes on the prize in the north sea, if someone else doesn't take it that is

I don't know how I missed it, not even a flake here

Most likely evaporating higher up or annoprop? who knows but it is snowing in deal e.t.c

[john pike]

thats called an undercut