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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

A.J

By A.J
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Mark Parsons Aficionado

Mark Parsons

Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
Posted

Ok.... Confused.com is this snow event coming on Thursday or Friday?

For you Khodds pretty sure it will be Friday BUT this could and probably will change marginally....................
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Erbyskerby Rookie

Erbyskerby

Posted
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
Posted

The precip that is currently trundling over Cornwall - is that likely to turn wintry as it moves over places that have lying snow? Will Prob. Dissipate before then but quite interesting to follow anyway. I do like a smattering of pink on me radar - even if it is nowhere near me!

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ARB Apprentice

ARB

Posted
  • Location: Heapey, Lancashire 104m asl
  • Location: Heapey, Lancashire 104m asl
Posted

I might be wrong here, and please correct me if I am, but isn't the NAE run at a higher resolution than the ECM, UKMO etc?

Does that make more it accurate, or just better at identifying smaller features and exact boundaries?

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Does that make more it accurate, or just better at identifying smaller features and exact boundaries?

I don't know. That's what I was trying to get at?

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cornish snow Enthusiast

cornish snow

Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
Posted

For us poor people in Cornwall and probably those in Devon it does look like we'll see more rain than snow this Friday! Damn.

Dont know what all the fuss is about to be honest. 7-8 degrees today an felt quite springlike.

Think i might plant my first earlys tomorrow,here there's splash of rain coming at the weekend.acute.gif

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

I might be wrong here, and please correct me if I am, but isn't the NAE run at a higher resolution than the ECM, UKMO etc?

Hi AWD, i believe it is, but somebody in the mod thread stated that it only looks within its own area (geographically), unlike GFS, ECM etc and not taking into consideration the wider picture, so +48 is like GFS at +168, very much fi?

That's what i read, so could be wrong?

Edited by karlos1983
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

The precip that is currently trundling over Cornwall - is that likely to turn wintry as it moves over places that have lying snow? Will Prob. Dissipate before then but quite interesting to follow anyway. I do like a smattering of pink on me radar - even if it is nowhere near me!

I asked the same said question earlier.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75572-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-150113-12z/page__st__380#entry2506112

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

I might be wrong here, and please correct me if I am, but isn't the NAE run at a higher resolution than the ECM, UKMO etc?

As far as I know it is but it can still be wrong, hope it is this time. Remember feb 2012 when it showed snow for us, at the last minute it updated and moved all the snow over to the east and we missed it, I remember that well as I went into the se regional thread to wind em up about it being our turn for the snow as they'd already had a snowfall a few days earlier, should have kept my mouth shut lol

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ARB Apprentice

ARB

Posted
  • Location: Heapey, Lancashire 104m asl
  • Location: Heapey, Lancashire 104m asl
Posted

I don't know. That's what I was trying to get at?

preumably it is run on a denser data grid but I am not sure if it does make it more accurate? Are there any stats on this I wonder?

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Argyle1980 Enthusiast

Argyle1980

Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro
Posted

Hello Argyle and welcome aboard.

Chances are, you are from Plymouth, but can you please update your profile to show your location. good.gif

This always helps us to track the weather as it comes in.

hey there . im from truro... just updated my profile :-)
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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Well even out to 42h that low is much stronger not a good thing.

Yep downgrade im afraid, its not a very good undercut.

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

I don't know. That's what I was trying to get at?

Oh I see now AWD, apologies :) I thought that its just better at picking up details short term?? But I don't have much of a clue! Where's Ian when you need him? :p

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

18z isn't going to be too nice for us, but hey ho. Quite happy to wait until tomorrow before looking into the models to deeply again.

No point looking at every run with precision.

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GazzzaV6 Newbie

GazzzaV6

Posted
  • Location: Hordle, New Forest, South Coast
  • Location: Hordle, New Forest, South Coast
Posted

Just can't keep up at the moment! Someone with more knowledge than me (not hard) please help......... Every time there is good news regarding getting snow, there is equal bad news some where else. BBC web site forecast downgarded South Coast to Sleet, while MetO App upgarded to heavey snow! (Friday). Anyone got any offers?

Cheers all

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Could this be a stumbling, cider drunk pub run?

Low much deeper by +54

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divadee Enthusiast

divadee

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole
Posted

-4.3 out there now. Dropping rapidly tonight. Some fog and mist is creeping in as well.

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Yep downgrade im afraid, its not a very good undercut.

But apparently there has been a westward correction? And the low is further south, that's got to be a good thing right?

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Craig84 Contributor

Craig84

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: High pressure, snow + alll extremes of weather
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

I'm sure I heard somewhere that due to higher res, mistakes can be magnified on nae and therefore be less accurete than global models such as UKMO-GM at times.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

seems to hit a brick wall at +60good.gifwallbash.gifrofl.gif

gfs-0-60.png?18

and i smell South East flow at +72

gfs-0-72.png?18

Edited by karlos1983
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