London & South East Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013>

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The front is expected to weaken as it moves East. Obviously this could change, but for time being heaviest snow is expected in The West - W.Mids, W.Wales etc.

I think we should all see a few cms though. From a IMBY perspective i normally do quite well from this kind of situ.

Edited January 16, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[tonbridgemole]

Well worth a read.....http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/disruptive-snow-friday/2830

[alexisj9]

But do you not think it suggests marginality ? "as the weather breaks down"

That basically means as the low pressure comes in. The rest depends on what it does after.

[Met4Cast]

Why are we suddenly worrying over what the MO computer generated forecasts are saying for Sunday? We don't know whats happening on Friday yet.

BBC London by the way didn't once mention "turning less cold" but instead stated that it'd be remaining cold through the weekend, I think people in here need to relax a little

[Radiating Dendrite]

But do you not think it suggests marginality ? "as the weather breaks down"

No..........it is just because the weather is becoming unsettled.

There is no marginality issues for this region currently.

[Coast]

Well worth a read.....http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/disruptive-snow-friday/2830

The latest available information suggests that a fairly active weather front will move in from the west during Friday into Saturday, bringing a spell of heavy snow to much of England, Wales and Scotland.

The main concern at the moment is that the weather front will become slow moving and perhaps even stall, which would mean that some places could see continuous snow, albeit of varying intensity, for 18-24 hours.

Another factor of the weather on Friday will be the strength of the south easterly wind, with sustained wind speeds of 15-25mph at low levels. Over the hills and mountains, this will increase to 25-35mph or more, giving blizzard conditions and drifting snow.

The brisk wind will also force air upwards into the atmosphere more readily over southern and eastern facing hills and mountains, which will increase the intensity of the snow markedly.

How much snow could there be?

There is still some uncertainty in the detail of which places will see the greatest amounts of snow – something that will be fine tuned as further information becomes available.

However, away from western coastal counties, much of England, Wales and Scotland are at risk from significant snow on Friday. At this stage, Northern Ireland is more likely to have rain and sleet.

The latest Met Office warnings suggest 5-10cm of snow is possible anywhere in the areas mentioned above, with this increasing to 10-15cm over east Wales, the Midlands and north west England, where as much as 20-25cm (8-10 inches) could fall over the hills and mountains here.

[Essexgooner]

-0.2c here - Clinging on like mad to an Ice Day but that Sunshine and Blue Skies is unrelenting on the Coast!

Tropical in the South Essex sun my friend, lol

[Downpour]

Why are we suddenly worrying over what the MO computer generated forecasts are saying for Sunday? We don't know whats happening on Friday yet.

BBC London by the way didn't once mention "turning less cold" but instead stated that it'd be remaining cold through the weekend, I think people in here need to relax a little

Thanks for the update Daniel - sounds good!

[Paul Sherman]

Tropical in the South Essex sun my friend, lol

Just went out for a ciggie in me South Facing garden and outta that North westerly and it felt amazing, closed my eyes and thought I was in Majorca for a second!

Lol

[Guenhwyvar]

Coast how many inches do you think we'll get Friday night?

[Tom Montalbano]

The early hours of Wednesday was beautiful and i'm sure many of you missed it. An Orange sky started to appear above Herne Bay, I was woken up by the sound of pebbles against my window. Looking outside I was greeted to an ever increasing whiteness across the landscape. Fast forward and the sky took on a bright orange/purple colour. With not a car to be heard just the eeery silence of a winter landscape, this is what I love about winter.

There is the night time snow against an orange/purple skylight or the daylight snow all beauty and white.

Hi VM,

Starting to look very interesting for you guys in the extreme east of Kent this afternoon. Showers in the S.North Sea looking quite beefy, look like they could well clip into your area on that light N.E. flow, giving a decent covering over the Downs.

Wish I was in Capel-le-Ferne, one of my favourite snow chase spots!

Lydden Hill could get a little interesting later!

Regards,

Tom

[Neilsouth]

Just went out for a ciggie in me South Facing garden and outta that North westerly and it felt amazing, closed my eyes and thought I was in Majorca for a second!

Lol

I went swimming in the lake away from the wind, the water was lovely and warm even the ducks came over to say hello

[Kent Blizzard]

I urge people not to keep looking for the negatives because you'll always see/hear them with any event, we even had them in 2010.

I can also guarentee that by Friday when snow reaches us you'll be hearing reports of it turning to sleet/rain down in the SW and that will set everyone into a panic also.

BUT don't worry about the front weakening, it will do but it'll be over us long enough for a decent snow event, don't worry about the rain breakdown, the uppers and dew points for us are excellent and if your worried about Sunday then take a look at Monday and it's game on for Snow again, I really cant see it turning to rain here in the SE.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Kent Blizzard

[magicpatch]

Anyone here can help. I'm supposed to be travelling Friday evening (after 7pm) up to my girlfriend in Manchester on Friday night. What - honestly - chances do you think I have? Even if we don't get too much snow down here, the metoffice amber warnings for North East England could play havoc with rail. I've not booked a ticket (yet) but I'm 50/50 that even making the trip will be impossible.

Plus I have to return on Sunday and looking at the model thread it seems that we might be in for a second dose of snow then and I could end up stranded!

Anyone willing to have a stab in the dark to what could happen?!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Anyone here can help. I'm supposed to be travelling Friday evening (after 7pm) up to my girlfriend in Manchester on Friday night. What - honestly - chances do you think I have? Even if we don't get too much snow down here, the metoffice amber warnings for North East England could play havoc with rail. I've not booked a ticket (yet) but I'm 50/50 that even making the trip will be impossible.

Plus I have to return on Sunday and looking at the model thread it seems that we might be in for a second dose of snow then and I could end up stranded!

Anyone willing to have a stab in the dark to what could happen?!

No chance mate.

Cancel and re-arrange.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[Joker]

Live Broadcast with Philip Avery on BBC news channel just now:

Really ramping it up for the West Midlands, northern England and Scotland on Friday.

Yes we had snow graphics on the SE but nothing compared to further west. :-(

Yes but with the cold block staying put, we in the SE, can still have 'our finest hour'. Be patient, it is coming!

[Neilsouth]

Anyone willing to have a stab in the dark to what could happen?!

Basically if everything goes to plan you might make it, but travel conditions will be dire... You have to factor in not just the train situation but there will be accidents on the roads

I would check the forecasts Friday morning if i were you

[Blackie]

Hi I have 2 5D Mii's & love them I mainly use the 50mm 1.2 70-200 2.8 & 27-70 2.8 But my favourite is the 70-200 by far

Very nice, too. I use mine mostly for travelling so I have to go with lighter lenses as those are so heavy. I have the 100-400 but never take it away these days. Instead I have the 70-300 DO lens, which I must admit is a compromise and not as sharp. Plus I have the 17-40, which I generally keep on a 40D. I may just take the 5D MkII in future so that I can carry a heavier lens. But airlines are getting much tougher on cabin baggage, especially the low-cost ones.

Anyway, I hope we will get some snow here in South East Essex in the next couple of days so that I can go out and do a bit of local snapping. Looking at that shower train out in the North Sea, it looks like you are going to get a lot more snow in your neck of the woods. As Shrimper has said, the wind direction needs to shift for us to get it here. But if we do get any it will definitely settle. My car is still coated with the little bit we had around 8am.

It is times like this I wish I had put my weather station up. I have had one for about six or seven years, but never got it out of its box because it will have to go on the roof - and I hate heights! Perhaps climbing onto a frosty roof is not a good idea at the moment. But I am itching to get it working. Wonder if I can persuade anyone to do it for me...?

[lawrenk]

If anyone hasn't read it already, SM did a brilliant summary of the "margins for error" for our region Fri/Sat. Well worth reading, for reassurance as much as anything that a few miles correction west or east shouldn't make that much of a difference to us.

Being only 10 miles from the coast I always worry about that scuppering my chances but from what I gather uppers and dew points should all be favourable and in any case a southerly or south easterly would also mean a very short sea track. Here's hoping!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Anyone here can help. I'm supposed to be travelling Friday evening (after 7pm) up to my girlfriend in Manchester on Friday night. What - honestly - chances do you think I have? Even if we don't get too much snow down here, the metoffice amber warnings for North East England could play havoc with rail. I've not booked a ticket (yet) but I'm 50/50 that even making the trip will be impossible.

Plus I have to return on Sunday and looking at the model thread it seems that we might be in for a second dose of snow then and I could end up stranded!

Anyone willing to have a stab in the dark to what could happen?!

Well if she is your girlfriend I would say you have every chance

Edited January 16, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Coast]

Stand by for icy blasts and heavy snow on Friday - but you'll get hit by freezing fog first

Winter tightens grip as widespread travel disruption looms for the end of the week

Winter is tightening its grip over much of the UK, with widespread freezing fog tomorrow following by extensive snow falling during much of Friday. The lowest temperatures into today were -12.7C at Braemar in Scotland and -12.1C at Houghton Hall in Norfolk, MeteoGroup said that average temperatures were between -3C and -7C, and -3C in London - with worse to come. In Norfolk 262 schools have closed due to the weather

But many of us could feel even colder tomorrow. Laura Caldwell, a forecaster with the MeteoGroup weather division of the Press Association, said tonight's minimum could be -8C or even lower where snow is lying already. Tomorrow will see widespread fog, especially in eastern England - with temperatures struggling to crawl above freezing apart from in the south and west. Winds pick up into Friday, with the potential for gale force gusts in coastal areas - making 0C feel like up to -8C.

Most of England and Scotland would see significant snowfalls from daybreak, with possible blizzard conditions in exposed areas. Apart from the south and west, snowfall would be widespread and significant - not clearing until towards the end of the day.

And then freezing fog returns on Saturday.

Today, RAC spokesman Simon Williams said that operators had dealt with a normal day's worth of calls before midday in East Anglia, one of the worst-hit areas "We are experiencing a high volume of call-outs in coastal areas from the north east to Brighton in the south," he added. "The main issues are frozen doors, petrol caps, windows and handbrakes. "Nationally, we are expecting 8,500 breakdowns today, which is 1,000 more than a normal winter's day."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/stand-by-for-icy-blasts-and-heavy-snow-on-friday--but-youll-get-hit-by-freezing-fog-first-8453159.html

[alexisj9]

Anyone here can help. I'm supposed to be travelling Friday evening (after 7pm) up to my girlfriend in Manchester on Friday night. What - honestly - chances do you think I have? Even if we don't get too much snow down here, the metoffice amber warnings for North East England could play havoc with rail. I've not booked a ticket (yet) but I'm 50/50 that even making the trip will be impossible.

Plus I have to return on Sunday and looking at the model thread it seems that we might be in for a second dose of snow then and I could end up stranded!

Anyone willing to have a stab in the dark to what could happen?!

Either leave early so you miss the snow, ie Friday morning, or make sure you have your car stocked up incase you get stuck, like blankets, flasks with hot drinks, food, shovel.

I would assume the message given over the news will be don't travel unless it's urgent.

[snowfall09]

Are the showers in the north sea likely to edge any nearer to the coast in the SE?

[Joker]

I know that many frown on Piers Corbyn but I have to say that he has been right so far about UK winters being colder and snowier. The man has made his mark as far as I'm concerned.

[Essexgooner]

Just went out for a ciggie in me South Facing garden and outta that North westerly and it felt amazing, closed my eyes and thought I was in Majorca for a second!

Lol

I know what you mean, we could get burnt today if we arent careful , lol