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London & South East Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
in Regional

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Have you seen the METO further outlook?? doesent fill me wth confidence, having said that its looking good for this weekend though..

Wouldn't pay much attention to this at this point, for anyone who is further east we have more chance of retaining the cold. Not to worry at this stage, changes more than a womans mood!

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lawrenk Veteran

lawrenk

Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
Posted

I wouldn't worry too much, Europe/France is extremely cold and the dew points there are very low so we should be alright even right on the coast I think, maybe more marginal with a southerly wind but SE nothing to worry about.

Thanks for the reply. Not taking as gospel but MO has me down for 21 hours of snow from midday Friday to 9pm Saturday. Not sure I can remember that prolonged a period of snowfall.
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

T = -0.4c

T d = -1.6c

RH = 91%

GEFS' take on things for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, regarding precipitation in 4 hour intervals

post-5986-0-14928300-1358346194_thumb.pn

The black line, the mean, is the average of all the GEFS runs, the red line is the highest amount forecast by any of the runs for that particular time period. The distance between the dotted blue line and the dotted green line represents the 62% certainty; ie 62% of the time the forecast is like this, precipitation will fall within this range.

A bit technical for the regions thread, so I'll put it another way: it is probable that London Heathrow will get precipitation between the dotted lines.

:)

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Joker Newbie

Joker

Posted
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
Posted

Just drawn up a map

post-7073-0-22652100-1358346042_thumb.gi

It's a pretty rough estimate, obviously some areas will see slightly more or slightly less, but as a ballpark figure based on the latest NAE & NMM

Seems a pretty decent guide. I hope that the occlusion doesn't cause a sleet/rain scenario for us here again like last Monday. The MET are predicting this again and it would be a shame to have a roaring blizzard only to be washed away before we can get out and enjoy it. wallbash.gif

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Thanks for the reply. Not taking as gospel but MO has me down for 21 hours of snow from midday Friday to 9pm Saturday. Not sure I can remember that prolonged a period of snowfall.

Get your camera ready then, this could be memorable :good:

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SnowBungle Rookie

SnowBungle

Posted
  • Location: Rainham, Medway
  • Location: Rainham, Medway
Posted

Just drawn up a map

post-7073-0-22652100-1358346042_thumb.gi

It's a pretty rough estimate, obviously some areas will see slightly more or slightly less, but as a ballpark figure based on the latest NAE & NMM

If we get the lower end of the estimates, many will be very upset at 'just' 30mm.

Me personally, I'm very torn. I want nothing more than to be snowed in and have a memorable winter to talk about for years to come. However, me and the wife are away for Thursday and Friday night in Essex for a short break. I'm seriously concerned about returning home to mid Kent on Saturday morning. Very nervous about going. Even considering losing our booking and staying home!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

Have you seen the METO further outlook?? doesent fill me wth confidence, having said that its looking good for this weekend though..

I've seen too many other sources that give me great confidence, the MET O will update on Friday and their TV output is already saying snow all the way through the weekend!

OK, just over an hour and the GFS 12z will cover us in snow (probably!!!)

Edited by Coast
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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)

This runs with my snow risk map and depths as we currently stand...

METO Snow risk/depth map

https://pbs.twimg.co...E_FoM.jpg:large

Will also update my own after the next outputs.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Jayces Enthusiast

Jayces

Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London
Posted

I do hope we do get something falling out if the sky that is white and fluffy this weekend, why do I feel another trend of last friday coming on. I saw 2 snow flakes and nothing since :-)

As long as it's neither bunnies or kittens ;-)

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Reefseeker Seasoned

Reefseeker

Posted
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)
Posted

If we get the lower end of the estimates, many will be very upset at 'just' 30mm.

Me personally, I'm very torn. I want nothing more than to be snowed in and have a memorable winter to talk about for years to come. However, me and the wife are away for Thursday and Friday night in Essex for a short break. I'm seriously concerned about returning home to mid Kent on Saturday morning. Very nervous about going. Even considering losing our booking and staying home!

Same for us, we are all due to stay in Bournemouth on Saturday night driving from Surbiton during Saturday... am not very confident we will make it there, or if we make it there, whether we'll make it back on Sunday. sorry.gif

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Mellenchip Newbie

Mellenchip

Posted
  • Location: Sydenham, SE London 55m/180 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy hot summer. extremes of weather
  • Location: Sydenham, SE London 55m/180 ft ASL
Posted

Hi all, just a quick one from me. I'm in Sydenham in south east London. On my net office app I'm down as light snow from 12 mid day on Friday till 6am on Sunday! That seems insane, but what I want to know is what do the net office define as "light snow" ??

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Joker Newbie

Joker

Posted
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

I've seen too many other sources that give me great confidence, the MET O will update on Friday and their TV output is already saying snow all the way through the weekend!

OK, just over an hour and the GFS 12z will cover us in snow (probably!!!)

What do you think about the threat of sleet/rain for our neck of the woods, Coast? Would you say 50/50?

Edited by Joker
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Sara Rookie

Sara

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex
Posted

As long as it's neither bunnies or kittens ;-)

I hope not, just the white fluffy flakes lol :-)

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

This runs with my snow risk map and depths as we currently stand...

METO Snow risk/depth map

https://pbs.twimg.co...E_FoM.jpg:large

Will also update my own after the next outputs.

And thats just fridays totals, still have to add saturday and sunday totals to that.

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Have you seen the METO further outlook?? doesent fill me wth confidence, having said that its looking good for this weekend though..

You strike me as a glass half empty man?

Come on......let's have some optimism! :)

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Mac_SE Contributor

Mac_SE

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Posted

What is it with people in here? We sit through week after week of Atlantic driven weather with above average temperature and finally, when some really decent snowfall is forecast, all people want to do is moan about how and when the breakdown's going to happen or why they're not in the firing line when all the meteorology close to a proper snow event overwhelmingly suggests otherwise.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

What do you think about the threat of sleet/rain for our neck of the woods, Coast? Would you say 50/50?

Friday? I'd say snow all the way from mid morning/lunchtime onwards TBH, I just can't see it any other way and I mean right down to home in Eastbourne too. Last night the temps was below freezing and the DP was -2.7°C on my weather station so it's not going to be down to either of those two variables.

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No Balls Like Snow Balls Experienced

No Balls Like Snow Balls

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
Posted (edited)

Hi all, just a quick one from me. I'm in Sydenham in south east London. On my net office app I'm down as light snow from 12 mid day on Friday till 6am on Sunday! That seems insane, but what I want to know is what do the net office define as "light snow" ??

Light snow is 1 flake every 60 seconds. You should therefore receive 60 flakes per hour or 1440 flakes in a 24 hour period. good.gifIf you gather all them flakes together then you should have enough to make a snowman 2 inches high.

Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

I don't understand people commenting on coastal areas, -7 uppers and well under 0c dew points? Personally I don't think it will be marginal anyway as long as the front gets here.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

Hi all, just a quick one from me. I'm in Sydenham in south east London. On my net office app I'm down as light snow from 12 mid day on Friday till 6am on Sunday! That seems insane, but what I want to know is what do the net office define as "light snow" ??

0.5 - 1mm an hour, sometimes between 1-2 mm an hour. Thats more moderate but ppn fall always varies.

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)

I don't understand people commenting on coastal areas, -7 uppers and well under 0c dew points? Personally I don't think it will be marginal anyway as long as the front gets here.

My only worry would be if lived on the far East Kent Coast but even there they will join the party and get a covering imo. The South Coast should do well out of it. Wether or not it turns to rain Sunday is another matter but would not worry at all about Sunday at this stage.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

0.5 - 1mm an hour, sometimes between 1-2 mm an hour. Thats more moderate but ppn fall always varies.

2 cm an hour x 24 hours = 48cm drinks.gifrofl.gif

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